SOMOSnow Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 (edited) 1 minute ago, Ingyball said: That's a hall of fame GFS run lol. Never seen it dump that much snow over the Plains. 2 feet? Sure. widespread 3 to 4 feet? That's insanity lol. It has spots near six feet with kuchera (58 inches). Lol Edited December 21, 2023 by SOMOSnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 (edited) 18 hours ago, Penn State said: January 8th-12th.. If all the pattern change possibilities become reality, I think this is the time to watch. Agree! I've been referring to this period for a while on the forum & private messages. Looks like a good bet of cold push that 2nd week before warmth again 3rd week. Too far out after that but my thoughts are the best stretch occurs late JAN through all of FEB. Edited December 21, 2023 by Grace 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 (edited) On 12/14/2023 at 7:06 AM, Grace said: BSR...shows initial colder dump west early JAN but moves east rather quickly: By JAN 8th time frame Again, stormy looking period the last week of year. Cold dump centered further west almost central CONUS with storminess to start new year. This regime moves east & currently modeled to remain that way during that 2nd week of JAN. EDIT: Always keep in mind what the Ohio valley needs is not necessarily what the North East needs. Some patterns favor both some patterns favorite one over the other. See referenced post above from 6 days ago. Edited December 21, 2023 by Grace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 21, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted December 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Ingyball said: That's a hall of fame GFS run lol. Never seen it dump that much snow over the Plains. 2 feet? Sure. widespread 3 to 4 feet? That's insanity lol. Would be a nice going away present for you. Certainly won't experience that out in the Pacific. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 21, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted December 21, 2023 39 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Would be a nice going away present for you. Certainly won't experience that out in the Pacific. Could be curse too if it impacts my ability to move out. The 18z run had 40 to 50 mph gusts with 30" of snow and the 00z had 50 to 60 mph with 15 to 20" of snow. You're talking about drifts of 4 to 6 feet at least in that setup. I'd need the city back up and running by the 8th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 21, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 21, 2023 Where does the ridging I'm Canada set up? If it reaches into Hudson Bay, the cold shots might only be glancing blows, back door cold front type events affecting mostly New England. I think ideally, you want that ridge axis just west of the Continental divide, poking up into the Beaufort Sea to really drive polar air/energy into the CONUS. A coherent MJO that continues to make orbits is also something to watch. I'm also keen to see if the NAO repeats it's behavior and dips for a couple weeks around the new year, then rebounds for the balance of January. The usual caveat as well with a pattern shake up, the models can sometimes rush things. Ski areas have suspended operations up here, so we really need winter to get on that horse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 12/21 0Z NAEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 11 hours ago, SNOWBOB11 said: Yea it’s more about after this storm into January where I think the thought is the pattern hopefully starts getting colder. Some people seem to think the storm track shifts toward east coast. I’m not sure either way but we’ll see. I know you're looking at the next storm, but the synoptic scale pattern doesn't seem to change. Canada doesn't look too cool down so where's the cold air gonna come from for anything other than another rain storm? Just looks like another warm and wet closed low with Pacific origins. Maybe some folks get lucky, but they'll have to thread the needle perfectly ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greenjacket Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 1 hour ago, StLweatherjunkie said: I know you're looking at the next storm, but the synoptic scale pattern doesn't seem to change. Canada doesn't look too cool down so where's the cold air gonna come from for anything other than another rain storm? Just looks like another warm and wet closed low with Pacific origins. Maybe some folks get lucky, but they'll have to thread the needle perfectly ... ...waiting for the winter pattern change since 2021-2022 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Hmmm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 54 minutes ago, Grace said: Hmmm PV Dropping south for us finally 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Greenjacket said: waiting for the winter pattern change since 2021-2022 Truth. It would be nice to see Canada cool down, seems like a lot of warm air for costales to deal with. Edited December 21, 2023 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 This looks like it could be that BSR storm. I got excited as I saw it develop then it pulled a fast one... 🙂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 12Z Candadian ensemble mean temps from January 1 to January 6 is the best thing I've seen in awhile. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mafa Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 25 minutes ago, Pghsnow said: This looks like it could be that BSR storm. I got excited as I saw it develop then it pulled a fast one... 🙂 Love seeing that on the models. Just keep showing an active pattern and cold for now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 12/21 12Z NAEFS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 1 hour ago, RobB said: 12/21 12Z NAEFS: Baby steps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 2 hours ago, SOMOSnow said: 12Z Candadian ensemble mean temps from January 1 to January 6 is the best thing I've seen in awhile. I wont believe it until Rob posts a pic that looks like that. 😎 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 29 minutes ago, JDClapper said: I wont believe it until Rob posts a pic that looks like that. 😎 Yea it's just good to see, even know long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 4 hours ago, Grace said: Hmmm Euro, a ton of members 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlizzardOf1978 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 5 hours ago, Grace said: Hmmm Your commentary on your posts are appreciated, so don't be afraid to say more, it helps to clarify what we are looking at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 1 minute ago, Pghsnow said: Still sucks. 😆 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlizzardOf1978 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, Pghsnow said: At least it's not blood red! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 1 hour ago, SOMOSnow said: Yea it's just good to see, even know long range. It is certainly a different color, I will give it that! 😃 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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