Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[SNOWBOB11]

We really need to build a snow pack to the north if we’re going to get cold air further south and storms to track in our favour. The lack of cold and snow in the north is extensive.

I’m wondering if the system around the 26th-27th will help bring in a change in the pattern as it looks like there will at least be a cooler look behind it.

I think this El Niño had a lot of wild cards in it as some of the conditions didn’t look the same as other analog years but what we’re seeing so far is it’s very hard to get away from warmth in December in a strong El Niño year regardless of the other factors. Hopefully the cold starts to filter back in and we only lose most or all of December to El Niño.

[adurb44]

3 hours ago, BuckeyeGal said:

Don't do it. There are a LOT of factors hinting that January/February will be colder and snowier. In Ohio, we had snowier and colder Novembers/Decembers the past handful of years, and then the winter went down the toilet after that. I'm hopeful that this will be the reverse. 🙂

As the saying goes, "Ice in November to bear a duck, the rest of the winter will be mud and muck." I won't say whether or I not I observed some ice on the ponds around my neck of the woods this November.

[Grace]

I'll take rain & 41 on Christmas vs sunny & 65. At least is cold, raw, wet.

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Tomorrow is kind of a sneaky event that might surprise. That's a lot of energy diving south 

[beaver56]

1 hour ago, Grace said:

I'll take rain & 41 on Christmas vs sunny & 65. At least is cold, raw, wet.

 

Sadly, I agree. There are a lot of forecast showing low to mid 50s in Indiana.  

[RobB]

2 hours ago, Grace said:

I'll take rain & 41 on Christmas vs sunny & 65. At least is cold, raw, wet.

 

I'm the opposite, two warm for snow, then I'll take 65 😁

[Grace]

Rock & roll! Happy new year!

[StormfanaticInd]

23 minutes ago, Grace said:

Rock & roll! Happy new year!

It will find a way to torch or be uneventful. 🙄

[Pghsnow]

 

[MaineJay]

10 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

It will find a way to torch or be uneventful. 🙄

Your pessimism is completely understandable.  There are some better looking signals in the near term absent any SSW stuff. To be honest, I've kinda lost interest in much of the SSW stuff, they look fun on paper, but the effects seem a bit random. We might just not have enough data on these events, over a long enough period, to draw meaningful conclusions other than it can shake things up 

EPS is trying to rotate the pattern counter clockwise, allowing the riding to bubble up closer to the Canadian Rockies than Hudson Bay.  This is impactful. Your area might need it to continue that a few more degrees west, but it opens the door for the northern stream.

  Best to keep an even keel.  Certainly okay to acknowledge that winter has been lazy so far, but we *should* start making some baby steps.  It might be a situation where we have cold, but can't gin up the moisture at the right time. 

 We've been dealing with this up here during December.  It's been plenty cool for snow, but the precip can in a 3"+ rain, and now we are getting a second months worth of rain in one storm.

  I see no reason that things can't improve around new years, doesn't mean they necessarily will, but a dash of optimism can be sprinkled in.

[RobB]

12/18 0Z NAEFS 

[so_whats_happening]

3 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Your pessimism is completely understandable.  There are some better looking signals in the near term absent any SSW stuff. To be honest, I've kinda lost interest in much of the SSW stuff, they look fun on paper, but the effects seem a bit random. We might just not have enough data on these events, over a long enough period, to draw meaningful conclusions other than it can shake things up 

EPS is trying to rotate the pattern counter clockwise, allowing the riding to bubble up closer to the Canadian Rockies than Hudson Bay.  This is impactful. Your area might need it to continue that a few more degrees west, but it opens the door for the northern stream.

  Best to keep an even keel.  Certainly okay to acknowledge that winter has been lazy so far, but we *should* start making some baby steps.  It might be a situation where we have cold, but can't gin up the moisture at the right time. 

 We've been dealing with this up here during December.  It's been plenty cool for snow, but the precip can in a 3"+ rain, and now we are getting a second months worth of rain in one storm.

  I see no reason that things can't improve around new years, doesn't mean they necessarily will, but a dash of optimism can be sprinkled in.

I get that Im not sure why I see posted so many times but it definitely is more about finding where that connection happens and the ridging over Canada has been damn near perfect example of Strat to tropo connection. I would not even mind if we do not even get a lobe over to this side as the high latitude blocking that looks to come from it will be fine enough for me. I tend to not want to have extreme cold, shunts too many things away then you start seeing snow down into Louisiana. 

It is still very much up in the air as to what effects may come from it even in a more favorable split setup everyone wants to see. 

Edited December 18, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[RobB]

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

12 hours ago, Pghsnow said:

 

 

 

 

29 minutes ago, RobB said:

 

Coincidentally, this is how I feel about SSWs, over the last decade most have impacted that side of the globe only

 

update on telleconnections via EPS.. as mentioned, lately some favorability did not yield even borderline acceptable results, but better than not favorable period I suppose haha

 

Edited December 18, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Grace]

4 hours ago, RobB said:

12/18 0Z NAEFS 

 

Progress!!😃

[NWOhioChaser]

Despite their importance and significance to potential pattern changes, I’m growing weary of hearing of talks regarding SSW events. More often than not lately, they seem to benefit the other side of the globe. 
 

still entertaining and informative nonetheless.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

14 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Despite their importance and significance to potential pattern changes, I’m growing weary of hearing of talks regarding SSW events. More often than not lately, they seem to benefit the other side of the globe. 
 

still entertaining and informative nonetheless.

my favorite is how they starting making headlines in November, and then actually happen in February where then the first effects are felt in March 😄 (hence my can kicking shot above)

[Grace]

 

[Grace]

46 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Despite their importance and significance to potential pattern changes, I’m growing weary of hearing of talks regarding SSW events. More often than not lately, they seem to benefit the other side of the globe. 
 

still entertaining and informative nonetheless.

 

Well, that might be true in some winters but in -QBO, El Nino winters there's a greater chance of one occurring. In fact, it's expected. Now whether one is needed is another questional altogether. 

[SOMOSnow]

12z Canadian ensemble mean has cool/cold taking over almost all of CONUS by January 3. Super long range, yes, but good to see nonetheless. 

[1816]

56 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

Well, that might be true in some winters but in -QBO, El Nino winters there's a greater chance of one occurring. In fact, it's expected. Now whether one is needed is another questional altogether. 

True and also as @NWOhioChaser said, seems like 75 percent of the time the disruption ends up sending the cold straight to Siberia. Which, I guess that's why it's Siberia. 

[RobB]

12/18 12Z NAEFS:

[so_whats_happening]

15 minutes ago, 1816 said:

True and also as @NWOhioChaser said, seems like 75 percent of the time the disruption ends up sending the cold straight to Siberia. Which, I guess that's why it's Siberia. 

The most common is in fact wave 1 or better known as displacement events and more often than not they usually lead to a colder Eurasia/ warmer NA. Last year was an odd ball one where the displacement ended up on our side but alas was only confined to the west due to the La Nina base state. Wave 2 is by far the best scenario for us getting cold to unleash but doesn't always translate for us specifically. This mode is with two ridges attacking the SPV from the Atlantic and Pacific and pinching it to Eurasia and Canada, typically. I personally would not rely on SSW to bring you winter but rather enhance the winter. We should know in the next few weeks how things should shake out going forward. Sure hope we can get at least one snow event by mid January though.

I feel like the one hope is that we can shuffle that ridge that developed near Alaska over to about greenland area and then we wouldn't need nearly as much heat flux in the Atlantic to cause a split potential just a strong flux over in Siberia/ Kamchatka region back into Bering sea/ Alaska region to weaken it significantly or maybe split.

Now wave 1 displacements can be so strong that sometimes they weaken the SPV significantly, last year was also a solid example of that.

 

[StormfanaticInd]

36 minutes ago, RobB said:

12/18 12Z NAEFS:

Well if it's going to be warm I'm ready for an early spring 

[StormfanaticInd]

Joe seems to be excited about this only problem is the trough is still over Alaska which just floods all of North America with mild air 🙄