Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[JDClapper]

It wouldn't be Christmas without above avg temps 🙂 But, #hope after.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

8 hours ago, RobB said:

1st two weeks of December temperature departures from normal:

 

The wide-spread nature is stunning

[Grace]

6 hours ago, 1816 said:

Grace you post a lot of amazing stuff on here and I thank you. But did I really just give my phone ass cancer from some Euro site to read that Moscow was shut down by less than a foot of a snow? It's Moscow. You would think 20cm of snow is just Tuesday over there. And 50 cm for the month is like what 2009 was here in VA and we only had issues for like 2 days. And I have always been under the assumption that Moscow >Virginia as far as dealing with snow. 

 

🤭

[RobB]

10 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

The wide-spread nature is stunning

Totally agree 😬

[RobB]

12/16 0Z NAEFS:

[JDClapper]

23 minutes ago, RobB said:

12/16 0Z NAEFS:

@RobB, I thought we were friends? Why do you torture us so? 😅

[RobB]

12 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

@RobB, I thought we were friends? Why do you torture us so? 😅

Amazing, is it not??  Crazy how it envelops so much area. 

[TLChip]

I feel like these are the same as last year. 

[Pghsnow]

Congrats Rob. and the Ohio crew for at least 1 run...

[Hassaywx1223]

1 hour ago, Pghsnow said:

Congrats Rob. and the Ohio crew for at least 1 run...

 for one run I’ll take it at this point 😂

[RobB]

12/16 12Z NAEFS:

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, RobB said:

12/16 12Z NAEFS:

We should get a contest going on when the first run will be that shows any blue in the lower 48.  

[RobB]

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

We should get a contest going on when the first run will be that shows any blue in the lower 48.  

Right? 😮

[TheComet]

Easily another month before any winter, if at all.

[beaver56]

Edited December 16, 2023 by beaver56

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, RobB said:

Right? 😮

Although I would say that those kind of maps obviously have their limitations.  Being probability based, it doesn't tell you how far above average it will be, though it would be fair to loosely infer that a map with 90-100% probability of warmer than average would probably suggest that it's going to be more than just a few degrees above average during that time. 

Also, a pattern that is significantly warmer than average can still easily result in snow, especially with northward extent.  For example, the average high/low in Minneapolis on Dec 31 is 25/11.  If it's 30/20, that's 7 degrees above average but still cold enough for snow to accumulate.  Obviously the farther south you go, the more dependent you are on temps being near/below average to get snow.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Wrong thread

 

 

 

Edited December 16, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[StormfanaticInd]

I'm getting very close to just writing this winter off completely. And yet another December down the drain. Really strange how our winters have been behaving. My only conclusion is that our climate is truly changing 

[MaineJay]

3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I'm getting very close to just writing this winter off completely. And yet another December down the drain. Really strange how our winters have been behaving. My only conclusion is that our climate is truly changing 

The last week of November had some talk about the NAO, and the correlation of it being negative in December, translating to more -NAO later in winter.  Kind of a coin flip to where it ends up for December. If you include the last week of November, it could be considered negative overall, but a bit subjective.

Unfortunately, the Greenland ridge morphed into a Hudson Bay ridge.  I remember seeming a post, might have been Larry Cosgrove, that cautioned about being caught on the wrong side of the blocks this winter.  

  Looking at the last 2.5 weeks, if someone said this would be the H5 pattern, most folks would say it looks promising, but it just didn't deliver the winter weather we'd prefer.  Kind of a "cold chasing the storm" situation.

I know it doesn't look great right now, especially with that stubborn ridging that keeps bubbling up over southern Canada.

Looking at this morning GEFS, you can see the minute that Hudson Bay vortex tries to set up, it's booted away by the aforementioned ridging.  The low pressure centers near Alaska making for the +EPO, and INVOF the Fram straight (essentially a +NAO) seem to be a little stuck right now.

So we'll circle back to my first question.  In an El Niño winter, where December was first half -NAO and fairly strong, she second half pretty strongly positive, will one win out over the next 3 months and make for a net - or + NAO?  

Perhaps we see it wax on for 2 weeks, then wax off for 2 weeks, I can't say.

Many places only need a 2 week snowy period to define a winter. Without much north American snow cover, December temps will almost always skew higher.

  I know it sucks to say, "things can only improve", but the pattern may only need to rotate a few degrees west or east to change our fortunes.

  We have had fairly average temperatures for the last few weeks up here, but unfortunately, most precip has come in heavy warmish rain events, with cool and dry in between.  

  I'm hoping the ski areas can cling to some snow, because 3-5" of rain over the next couple days is probably causing quite the anxiety for folks who rely on winter weather activities.

[SOMOSnow]

2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I'm getting very close to just writing this winter off completely. And yet another December down the drain. Really strange how our winters have been behaving. My only conclusion is that our climate is truly changing 

The climate has always changed and always will . It's been much warmer and colder in the past. 

[RobB]

12/17 0Z NAEFS:

[BuckeyeGal]

8 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I'm getting very close to just writing this winter off completely. And yet another December down the drain. Really strange how our winters have been behaving. My only conclusion is that our climate is truly changing 

Don't do it. There are a LOT of factors hinting that January/February will be colder and snowier. In Ohio, we had snowier and colder Novembers/Decembers the past handful of years, and then the winter went down the toilet after that. I'm hopeful that this will be the reverse. 🙂

[Hassaywx1223]

4 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

Don't do it. There are a LOT of factors hinting that January/February will be colder and snowier. In Ohio, we had snowier and colder Novembers/Decembers the past handful of years, and then the winter went down the toilet after that. I'm hopeful that this will be the reverse. 🙂

Yeah I agree don’t write it off plenty of time and actual signs this year. Even me tomorrow in northeast Ohio I’m supposed to get 2-3 inches of snow there’s time 

[Penn State]

Call me crazy.. but I’m currently curious about the January 5th-15th timeframe, with a focus right around the 10th. It’s not on the Organic Forecasting site yet.. but this is the look for December 23rd in the North Pacific. I could be wrong, but I think this translates to this period, and it’s been showing this for many runs. I think that’s the right placement. Also.. I know the MJO will be in phases 1+2 (maybe).. but in 2016 (for example), the MJO went through phases 7,8, and 1 about 1-2 weeks before the actual storm. Well.. we’ll be going through 7,8, and 1 soon.. which would be about that same timeframe come January 10th. Like I said, call me crazy.. but.. 

[RobB]

12/17 12Z NAEFS: