Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[RobB]

I shall try and post here a bit more often.  Obviously, a slow start to the season...

12/14 12Z NAEFS:

 

[1816]

59 minutes ago, RobB said:

I shall try and post here a bit more often.  Obviously, a slow start to the season...

12/14 12Z NAEFS:

 

[Pghsnow]

The CFS has no Jan thaw. Keeps most severe cold over Northeast, but from central us to midatlantic it stays cold from around New Years through the 14th 

[SOMOSnow]

Latest CFS extended from Dec 28 to January 27 (30 days). Three of the last four runs have had a very similar run. And the fourth was similar as well in placement, just not as cold. This was the coldest of the four most recent runs, but nice seeing a good trend. 

Edited December 14, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[Pghsnow]

Here are the weeklies for Jan 6 - Jan 13

[SOMOSnow]

A couple interesting tweets from Ben Noll. 

[SOMOSnow]

[SOMOSnow]

[MesoscaleBanding]

Just an example to remind us of how terrible the models can be in the mid/longer range...

 

[Grace]

Just now, MesoscaleBanding said:

Just an example to remind us of how terrible the models can be in the mid/longer range...

 

 

One main reason is because models can't get a handle on mjo from run to run & this creates chaos. 

However, the colder pattern has been well discussed for a while with no dependence on models. It's not all that surprising when they see it but there will still be back & forth variability until the time. Each using one run to the next for their own agendas. 

[MesoscaleBanding]

6 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

One main reason is because models can't get a handle on mjo from run to run & this creates chaos. 

However, the colder pattern has been well discussed for a while with no dependence on models. It's not all that surprising when they see it but there will still be back & forth variability until the time. Each using one run to the next for their own agendas. 

Absolutely - I just always find it comical how many of these higher profile 'professionals' on social media constantly put out 10-day+ forecast maps as gospel to push their chosen narrative when the major models prove time & time again that they don't know their butt from a hole in the ground past 5 days. 

Edited December 14, 2023 by MesoscaleBanding

[Grace]

56 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Absolutely - I just always find it comical how many of these higher profile 'professionals' on social media constantly put out 10-day+ forecast maps as gospel to push their chosen narrative when the major models prove time & time again that they don't know their butt from a hole in the ground past 5 days. 

 

#truth

[Pghsnow]

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/strong-jet-stream-winter-pattern-arrives-in-2024-united-states-canada-fa/

[Grace]

GEFS 10mb Anomaly

 

GEFS control 10mb anomaly 

 

 

 

[Grace]

 

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

[RobB]

12/15 0Z NAEFS:

 

[cperry29]

53 minutes ago, RobB said:

12/15 0Z NAEFS:

 

It ain’t all bad…. my last natural gas bill was only $138. 🥳

[beaver56]

2 hours ago, RobB said:

12/15 0Z NAEFS:

 

Rob once again with the mic drop!🎤🎤🎤😆

[RobB]

12/15 12Z

[RobB]

1st two weeks of December temperature departures from normal:

 

[StormfanaticInd]

I believe Christmas will be colder than what the models currently have it

[Hoosier]

23 minutes ago, RobB said:

1st two weeks of December temperature departures from normal:

 

Will be interesting to see that map at the end of the month.  I don't think we're really going to tack on more to the departures by 12/31 with the possible exception of parts of the east, but it looks to end up being a warmer month than what I originally thought.  We've gotten so used to warm months though that it will largely be a forgettable level of warmth 10 years from now, except in the northern tier.

[Grace]

https://www.euronews.com/2023/12/15/severe-blizzards-blanket-moscow-in-decades-worth-of-snow-causing-chaos-on-roads

[1816]

1 hour ago, Grace said:

https://www.euronews.com/2023/12/15/severe-blizzards-blanket-moscow-in-decades-worth-of-snow-causing-chaos-on-roads

Grace you post a lot of amazing stuff on here and I thank you. But did I really just give my phone ass cancer from some Euro site to read that Moscow was shut down by less than a foot of a snow? It's Moscow. You would think 20cm of snow is just Tuesday over there. And 50 cm for the month is like what 2009 was here in VA and we only had issues for like 2 days. And I have always been under the assumption that Moscow >Virginia as far as dealing with snow. 

Edited December 15, 2023 by 1816

[MaineJay]

38 minutes ago, 1816 said:

Grace you post a lot of amazing stuff on here and I thank you. But did I really just give my phone ass cancer from some Euro site to read that Moscow was shut down by less than a foot of a snow? It's Moscow. You would think 20cm of snow is just Tuesday over there. And 50 cm for the month is like what 2009 was here in VA and we only had issues for like 2 days. And I have always been under the assumption that Moscow >Virginia as far as dealing with snow. 

I think it was written in another language, and there's some translation issues. I'm guessing the one fifth should've been five times. The "decades worth" should be "most in decades, or to that effect.