Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[JDClapper]

1 hour ago, 1816 said:

 

We  need to listen more to grace. It's not gonna be a bad winter. It's just not gonna be good the next couple of weeks. If you hit mid January and it's been warm all along and for the forseeable future then by all means, fire away. But we just had a huge fuckin storm with thunder and a rain snow changeover in the middle of the night that left the hilltops white this morning. During a period all said was a torch and a nothingburger. Let's let it play out because if this winter can't hit it then I don't know what the hell to look for. 

Who said I wasn't listening to Grace? Don't take my comments too seriously. I don't even take my own words seriously. 🙂

[JDClapper]

1 hour ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Anyone else die inside a little when work chit chat turns in to weather and you get the

"this weather is great, beats snow for sure" or "I'd take this the next three months" 

🤦💀☠️

 

59 minutes ago, adurb44 said:

I always remind people how much mild winters suck. Constant cloudiness, mushy ground, it blows. Give me cold and snowy with lots of days in the 20s and clear skies over this crap.

Yes, hate! I smile and nod and sometimes say I like a climate where there's not giant bugs, spiders and snakes and reptiles that want to nibble on me. Need some deep freezes in our life. 🙂

[1816]

20 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Who said I wasn't listening to Grace? Don't take my comments too seriously. I don't even take my own words seriously. 🙂

I meant more that you were on the same page with grace. Winters revenge is coming for all of us. 

[StormfanaticInd]

Noticing the jet starting to cut more underneath Christmas week. Maybe someone can get lucky 

[Eaglesfan82]

1 hour ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Anyone else die inside a little when work chit chat turns in to weather and you get the

"this weather is great, beats snow for sure" or "I'd take this the next three months" 

🤦💀☠️

Yep I hate when people say that . I always tell them I’m weird and love snow . They look at me funny when I’m like I want to get crushed with 2 feet or more 

[1816]

8 minutes ago, Eaglesfan82 said:

Yep I hate when people say that . I always tell them I’m weird and love snow . They look at me funny when I’m like I want to get crushed with 2 feet or more 

I have mixed emotions. I love knee high snow but it's such a pain in my ass for work that I also hate it. Lol. 

 

It's rare enough where I live that the wonder outweighs the hassle but it can still be a problem when it happens. 

[Pghsnow]

CFS keeps most of Central and Eastern US solidly below freezing from around Dec 28th through Jan 11.

[so_whats_happening]

21 hours ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

I think waiting for and forecasting a SSW is a little bit fools gold. Every year there are calls for a SSW that keep getting pushed back and back. I think it’s better to wait for it to be on the door step or happening to be sure. Plus I don’t think you need a SSW. Just a displacement of the PV will do.

It basically is what it is. Hopefully LR models are on to something with the change in pattern but at this point it’s just wait and see. To see the GFS LR look like it’s being run by the pacific flow with constant warm air being filtered in I’m just not sure anymore. We’ve had some not snowy Decembers as of recent and although a warm December is nothing new for a elnino I was hopeful we might get into a better faze of the MJO and it might help to give some better cold snow chances than we’ve seen or what the long range is currently looking like.

A couple days ago I said I think we will see a pattern change by months end and I think it’s still possible. But right now it looks a bit rough.

We need more Cyclonic wave breaks (negative tilted systems) to really throw the Stratospheric vortex (SPV) into a death spiral and unfortunately the Atlantic side has not cooperated at all so we only get Pacific driven wave activity. This led to the large displacement (upper level ridging pattern at 10mb) around Alaska, this wave 1 displacement while it did weaken the SPV it caused a typical response which was to have all the cold over into Europe and Asia.

We saw a different approach last year where we had a large wave 1 response (warming) over the European and Asian continents thus shoving the core of the cold into AK and  Western Canada, unfortunately the tropospheric pattern was not conducive for a cold blast across the country it ended up in the west and SW while we baked in the east. It was almost like a triple whammy of sorts: La Nina/-PDO,-PNA, and SPV displacement which did favor cold in North America but alas the other factors caused us to not have a fun one.

Now this year with the background state we could have better opportunities with a displacement pattern but again we need the Atlantic to really step its game up a bit. I think the most ideal aspect would be to get another round of wave activity to set up with a dieing ridge near Alaska( at 10mb) that moves over to about Greenland with time and this would allow enough of a perturbation on the Atlantic side while having strong activity on the Pacific side of things to really act on the SPV. Does this happen not a clue unfortunately. The fact that we are seeing a weakening MJO wave traveling through 4-7 is not an ideal setup for a strong attack on the SPV. So yes we may keep a weakened state but sitting where it is not going to help the situation especially if it tries to connect with the 500mb pattern.

If this pattern holds (instead of relocating that ridge to Greenland area and producing another strong warming episode like I mentioned above) it could at least provide the idea of some cold with a more pronounced Western US/ Alaska ridge scenario as it connects which would be toward the second half of winter, we have yet to see it connect to the lower levels meaningfully during this warming episode.

[so_whats_happening]

13 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

Lots of high latitude blocking across East Asia in the time frame you're watching. The only system that could be moving into the eastern conus around Xmas is the closed low off the West Coast (very little cold air). 

Fast forward to Xmas and I can see some potential for troughing in the eastern conus, but the origin of this trough combined with ridging across Canada suggests another wet system with barely any cold air is the most likely outcome.

I very much doubt this extremely warm pattern will continue too far into the new year, but it's easy to get hung up on the noise of weather instead of analyzing long term signals. Looking at last water year compared to what's already happened this water year, several things are apparent:

1. Last year's West Coast trough shifted west to the East Pacific. This is a major bummer, because if it shifted east then most everyone in this forum would be happy.

2. Last year's weak -NAO is on steroids this years. This is another bummer, because it means the best winter weather compared to normal will probably be in Europe

3. Along the same lines as #2, the East Coast has the best shot at sustained cooler temps but the trough axis is offshore so cold will be punctuated by cutters originating from northern Mexico troughing and clippers diving into the -NAO pattern.

At the end of the day, what's already happened strongly suggests this isn't a favorable pattern for the conus to get sustained winter weather.

Yea it is not pretty. We really don't want to see that jet flying through Canada like that. Been thinking for awhile now that we at least see a temporary break around the holidays into the New Year and that should still hold up for the time being. Just hope we don't come roaring back with the pac jet.

7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Admittedly this is grasping, but wonder if the models may have gone a bit too far with slowing/killing off the MJO wave.  They may be right, but there's at least some possibility that it holds together longer and progresses through 7 into 8 a bit quicker.  

If not, well, it wouldn't be the first time that a pattern change to colder wx gets pushed back.  Most of us are here for winter wx, so I think it's natural to see what we want to see and temporarily forget about some of the model biases and tendencies.  The change to a more wintry pattern will (or should) eventually come, but it may just take a bit longer.

Would rather not go into a cold/nw flow type pattern in January, but that is a possibility.  Would be hard to get big time snowmakers in that kind of regime, but maybe some clipper action with any luck.  Those can be good on occasion.  On a local level, the warmer than average wx is going to keep Lake Michigan warmer than average into January.  If we can actually get a proper cold airmass, then it could add a little extra oomph to any lake enhanced/lake effect snow prospects. 

Even though the RMM plots show virtually no signal of an amplified wave there is still an MJO wave that is progressing through those regions. Although weak it allows other things to take hold of the pattern instead of being tropically driven. What those will be at that time we may not know until closer to that time frame but we should expect at least a solid influence from the El Nino if we see less tropics induced action, of course things dont start getting better until mid January usually in an El Nino soo...

[MaineJay]

8 hours ago, Pghsnow said:

CFS keeps most of Central and Eastern US solidly below freezing from around Dec 28th through Jan 11.

Not saying it's not showing cold, but the 0z and 12z frames capture evening and morning temps respectively. So high temps need to be interpolated.  Snowcover, or lack thereof, is going to play a huge role in 2m temps the next few weeks.

I'll quietly appreciate lower heating costs while waiting for snow.

[beaver56]

1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

Not saying it's not showing cold, but the 0z and 12z frames capture evening and morning temps respectively. So high temps need to be interpolated.  Snowcover, or lack thereof, is going to play a huge role in 2m temps the next few weeks.

I'll quietly appreciate lower heating costs while waiting for snow.

I have pretty accepted the fact that it isn't going to be cold and snowy in my locale around Christmas, which I can live with.  But, please don't let it be in the freaking 50s or something extreme.  I would also like a little cloud cover as well.  If anyone knows Santa please put in a good word for me.

I truly believe we will all have our day.  I just hope it comes sooner than later.

[TLChip]

15 hours ago, Eaglesfan82 said:

Yep I hate when people say that . I always tell them I’m weird and love snow . They look at me funny when I’m like I want to get crushed with 2 feet or more 

I too have this conversation regularly working outside. I prefer temps between 15-30. Keeps everything frozen and no mud. 38 and water is much worse, wet boots and gloves and no way to stop it. 

People down here don’t understand how to dress and enjoy winter to be honest. I see workers come in with only jeans and hoodies. No clue what a wicking base layer is, no wind shell to keep the cold air out. They really suffer sometimes. 

Bring the snow, work can wait a day or 2. Enjoy what Mother Nature brings us.

 

I sure hope Jan and Feb roll around and bring the cold/snow. A solid 4 weeks of snow on the ground would suffice. 

[SNOWBOB11]

Crickets in here lol. We need the LR models to verify and get some winter back.

[Grace]

 

On 12/11/2023 at 8:13 AM, Grace said:

I'm still very skeptical on model guidance for around the Christmas period.  Models are still showing troughiess in East Asia 6-9 days before Christmas.  This would translate to the same in the Eastern US around Christmas.

 

 Like I've said before this DOES NOT automatically translate to cold. I don't think it does in this scenario; however it does translate to models being incorrect on ridge & anomalies & to cooler anomalies than what is currently modeled. Looks like a repeated storm scenario in that period. 

What the models are showing in East Asia is just a few days away from verifying. So I don't expect much change there.  While the Christmas period is still 10 to 15 days away on the models. Smart money is on model's trending toward something closer to what's going to occur in East Asia.

This is a good test: EAR vs Models for the Christmas period.

 

Well, well, well...are we moving towards EAR?

Christmas Eve

 

Trend

 

 

Edited December 13, 2023 by Grace

[Grace]

As warm as planet is in last few months Russia experienced its coldest temperature in 40 years!

 

[StormfanaticInd]

56 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

 

Well, well, well...are we moving towards EAR?

Christmas Eve

 

Trend

 

 

What part of Asia represents the OV?

[Grace]

12 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

What part of Asia represents the OV?

 

Look at the loop I posted in the original post of mine I replied to. 

Seoul, South Korea correlates with Paducah, Ky. Wish I had an overlay but I dont.

[StormfanaticInd]

Very interesting look now. Models are improving for Christmas week imo

[MaineJay]

Anyone got an EPO forecast?

[MaineJay]

Thus looks like fun, I'll have to stock up on vitamin D. 9 days without sun per the 0z GFS, it better have some friggin snow falling out of them there clouds if gonna have to get rickets.

[MaineJay]

Almost Joe. If you always forecast cold and snow, eventually you'll be right.

Too many social media METs  want to appease winter weather lovers. Fighting for eyes with increasingly hyped up language. It's frustrating.  I'd recommend going back to page 25 to see some of the forecasts.  I think there was, and still is a "grouo think" mentality that this is a modoki Niño, I'm less convicted now than back then.  The pattern that was highlighted seemed to be rotated clockwise on the northern hemisphere. So instead of a +PNA ridge, you get +EPO ridge over Hudson Bay.  I'm my humble opinion, this is directly a result of the Niño being canonical.

  Waaaay too much sensationalism from folks who should know better. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

40 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Anyone got an EPO forecast?

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Woof

[MaineJay]

Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Woof

We could work with that, if, and it's a big if, there was a vortex over Hudson Bay. I believe the 2014-15 winter had a very strong +AO, -EPO couplet.  But everytime the NAO tries to plunge, the ridge seems to migrate back to Hudson Bay, sending the cold to Siberia. 

  The Siberian and Mongolian weather forums must be hopping with winter weather lovers over there...

[1816]

9 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

We could work with that, if, and it's a big if, there was a vortex over Hudson Bay. I believe the 2014-15 winter had a very strong +AO, -EPO couplet.  But everytime the NAO tries to plunge, the ridge seems to migrate back to Hudson Bay, sending the cold to Siberia. 

  The Siberian and Mongolian weather forums must be hopping with winter weather lovers over there...

The dirty secret people don't talk about, not even hate winter warmth. Those poor bastards over there where it's -75 don't care about winter weather.  They just wish they could move to Hawaii.