SOMOSnow Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Excited that we are quickly nearing a much more active time in this thread, where hope will abound and we will all enjoy analyzing the possibilities for the upcoming Winter season. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 On 8/15/2023 at 5:37 AM, Grace said: This El Nino showing signs of losing some mojo recently underneath the surface. Yeah, subsurface heat peaked in June. Makes me wonder if this Nino will be like 1972-72 or maybe 2009-10. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 It's the 17th of the month & UKMET & JAMSTEC has neither updated. They need to get with it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 On 8/17/2023 at 1:19 PM, Grace said: It's the 17th of the month & UKMET & JAMSTEC has neither updated. They need to get with it. Here we are on the 21st & neither have updated. Anyone heard if they're having a problem or something? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 eventually the law of averages pendulum swings back and forth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 UKMET finally updated! NOV/DEC/JAN 2 M Temps NOV/DEC/JAN Precip 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 2 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: eventually the law of averages pendulum swings back and forth This is the year (just like I say about my Browns every single August) 😂 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wnwniner Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Lets take an informal poll! I have to brief our elected officials on the upcoming winter and where we are with all of our preparations-equipment, training, staffing, etc. I've also been asked to share what we know about the weather to expect (central Ohio), so I'm thinking of sharing one of the following...interested in this groups thoughts... 1-Farmers almanac says we're getting a ton of snow, so that's what's going to happen 2-Farmers almanac says we're getting a ton of snow, so expect a mild winter 3-the last few years have generally been mild, expect that to continue 4-the last few years have generally been mild, we are due for more snow 5-who the heck knows-prepare for the worst, hope for the best (lots of snow in my opinion!) Any insight is appreciated from the collective group. Thanks! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 5 hours ago, Wnwniner said: Lets take an informal poll! I have to brief our elected officials on the upcoming winter and where we are with all of our preparations-equipment, training, staffing, etc. I've also been asked to share what we know about the weather to expect (central Ohio), so I'm thinking of sharing one of the following...interested in this groups thoughts... 1-Farmers almanac says we're getting a ton of snow, so that's what's going to happen 2-Farmers almanac says we're getting a ton of snow, so expect a mild winter 3-the last few years have generally been mild, expect that to continue 4-the last few years have generally been mild, we are due for more snow 5-who the heck knows-prepare for the worst, hope for the best (lots of snow in my opinion!) Any insight is appreciated from the collective group. Thanks! Here you go: El Nino winters favor a +PNA pattern that usually results in cooler temps and higher chances for winter storms Ohio. The law of averages suggests higher chances of a cooler and snowier winter since recent winters were warm and relatively snowless. Even though there are multiple factors that favor a cooler, snowier winter it's still to early to confidently say what will happen. 3 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 JAMSTEC 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 This is really a good forecast. I think he does a phenomenal job. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indygirl Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 On 8/16/2023 at 1:10 AM, SOMOSnow said: Excited that we are quickly nearing a much more active time in this thread, where hope will abound and we will all enjoy analyzing the possibilities for the upcoming Winter season. You KNOW it’s getting close to show time when I pop in to see what’s up!, lol Indy area finally cooling down this week!! 😃 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 And so it begins...in September first signs of strat PV at 10mb: 5 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 So, CPC has not updated ENSO sub-surface temps since August 6th 🙄 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted August 29, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted August 29, 2023 5 hours ago, Grace said: So, CPC has not updated ENSO sub-surface temps since August 6th 🙄 Yea a bit unfortunate but you can check out TAO/Triton data https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/assorted-plots unfortunately im not finding an animation of the last few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Old Farmers Almanac https://www.pennlive.com/weather/2023/08/get-your-snow-shovel-ready-old-farmers-almanac-calling-for-winter-wonderland.html?outputType=amp 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted August 30, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted August 30, 2023 3 hours ago, Grace said: Old Farmers Almanac https://www.pennlive.com/weather/2023/08/get-your-snow-shovel-ready-old-farmers-almanac-calling-for-winter-wonderland.html?outputType=amp The cynic within me is like.. Of course! It’s going to be cold and snowy everywhere.. nice way to grab some headlines.. However.. I do believe with the switch to El Niño, and a more active southern jet, there will be ample opportunities among the east coast when cold air makes an appearance. Time will tell.. but I’m feeling more confident about this winter than the last few winters. Then again.. I’m probably biased lol.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, Penn State said: The cynic within me is like.. Of course! It’s going to be cold and snowy everywhere.. nice way to grab some headlines.. However.. I do believe with the switch to El Niño, and a more active southern jet, there will be ample opportunities among the east coast when cold air makes an appearance. Time will tell.. but I’m feeling more confident about this winter than the last few winters. Then again.. I’m probably biased lol.. Law of perceived averages is also in play. Gonna be hard to do much worse than the last few years. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted August 30, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted August 30, 2023 With the increase in tropical activity going through the west Atlantic/ Gulf i hope we can eat up some of those warm waters offshore. Going to potentially get re enforced coming up here with ridging taking over much of the eastern US as we move into September. El Nino taking a little break for right now should see a potential increase come end of September with a new MJO wave that may get initiated in the next week. It will be important to see how the subsurface sets itself up in the next month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainelySnow Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 So, I'm going to go with the completely unscientific "Old Timer's Winter Forecast" for Maine. I grew up hearing both my grandfather's say "heavy pine cones" and/or "heavy acorn" years meant a big winter coming. Both of them were born in the very early 1900s. Right now, the pine trees are weighted heavily with cones and have been for over a month. Similar story with oaks and acorns. They were very intuned to the natural world, so I'll be interested to see how this forecast unfolds. 😉 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 34 minutes ago, MainelySnow said: So, I'm going to go with the completely unscientific "Old Timer's Winter Forecast" for Maine. I grew up hearing both my grandfather's say "heavy pine cones" and/or "heavy acorn" years meant a big winter coming. Both of them were born in the very early 1900s. Right now, the pine trees are weighted heavily with cones and have been for over a month. Similar story with oaks and acorns. They were very intuned to the natural world, so I'll be interested to see how this forecast unfolds. 😉 Ironic you bring that up. We have a ton of pine cones on our trees this year. Some trees look like they have hundreds. I have never seen that before at our farm and never heard that before. Thanks for sharing the "old timer" knowledge that was shared with you. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 (edited) CanSips UPDATED....Typical backloaded Nino with a better looking pattern JFM. DEC/JAN/FEB/500mb JAN/FEB/MAR Edited September 1, 2023 by Grace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 On 8/30/2023 at 4:36 AM, so_whats_happening said: With the increase in tropical activity going through the west Atlantic/ Gulf i hope we can eat up some of those warm waters offshore. Going to potentially get re enforced coming up here with ridging taking over much of the eastern US as we move into September. El Nino taking a little break for right now should see a potential increase come end of September with a new MJO wave that may get initiated in the next week. It will be important to see how the subsurface sets itself up in the next month. And this is a year that we really need the El Nino to dictate the pattern. When it relaxes a pattern that looks Nina-ish takes place like September. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Grace said: CanSips UPDATED....Typical backloaded Nino with a better looking pattern JFM. DEC/JAN/FEB 500mb DEC/JAN/FEB Looks good! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 14 hours ago, Grace said: CanSips UPDATED....Typical backloaded Nino with a better looking pattern JFM. DEC/JAN/FEB/500mb JAN/FEB/MAR A backloaded winter? Color me shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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