Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[StormfanaticInd]

At this rate even the first week of January is starting to look like a torch. 

Edited December 11, 2023 by StormfanaticInd

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[NWOhioChaser]

6 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

At this rate even the first week of January is starting to look like a torch. 

And so it begins. Getting my tin can ready. 

[StormfanaticInd]

52 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

And so it begins. Getting my tin can ready. 

February should be good 🙄

[Grace]

13 hours ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

I think waiting for and forecasting a SSW is a little bit fools gold. Every year there are calls for a SSW that keep getting pushed back and back. I think it’s better to wait for it to be on the door step or happening to be sure. Plus I don’t think you need a SSW. Just a displacement of the PV will do.

It basically is what it is. Hopefully LR models are on to something with the change in pattern but at this point it’s just wait and see. To see the GFS LR look like it’s being run by the pacific flow with constant warm air being filtered in I’m just not sure anymore. We’ve had some not snowy Decembers as of recent and although a warm December is nothing new for a elnino I was hopeful we might get into a better faze of the MJO and it might help to give some better cold snow chances than we’ve seen or what the long range is currently looking like.

A couple days ago I said I think we will see a pattern change by months end and I think it’s still possible. But right now it looks a bit rough.

 

 I don't know if you follow Simon Lee or any of the other stratosphere experts. But in -QBO El Nino's it would be the exception rather than the rule to not have a SSW.  So while there are no guarantees that's why there's more talk this year about it... It's kind of expected until it doesn't happen. With that said, a full-blown SSW is not needed but just heat flux hits to keep it weak if we can get into the cold phases of MJO. Need's to be weaker rather than stronger MJO. Research shows more cold out breaks in low amplitude cold phase MJO than in high ampitude during El Nino. 

Edited December 11, 2023 by Grace

[Grace]

I'm still very skeptical on model guidance for around the Christmas period.  Models are still showing troughiess in East Asia 6-9 days before Christmas.  This would translate to the same in the Eastern US around Christmas.

 

 Like I've said before this DOES NOT automatically translate to cold. I don't think it does in this scenario; however it does translate to models being incorrect on ridge & anomalies & to cooler anomalies than what is currently modeled. Looks like a repeated storm scenario in that period. 

What the models are showing in East Asia is just a few days away from verifying. So I don't expect much change there.  While the Christmas period is still 10 to 15 days away on the models. Smart money is on model's trending toward something closer to what's going to occur in East Asia.

This is a good test: EAR vs Models for the Christmas period.

Edited December 11, 2023 by Grace

[StLweatherjunkie]

13 minutes ago, Grace said:

I'm still very skeptical on model guidance for around the Christmas period.  Models are still showing troughiess in East Asia 6-9 days before Christmas.  This would translate to the same in the Eastern US around Christmas.

 

 Like I've said before this DOES NOT automatically translate to cold. I don't think it does in this scenario; however it does translate to models being incorrect on ridge & anomalies & to cooler anomalies than what is currently modeled. Looks like a repeated storm scenario in that period. 

What the models are showing in East Asia is just a few days away from verifying. So I don't expect much change there.  While the Christmas period is still 10 to 15 days away on the models. Smart money is on model's trending toward something closer to what's going to occur in East Asia.

This is a good test: EAR vs Models for the Christmas period.

Lots of high latitude blocking across East Asia in the time frame you're watching. The only system that could be moving into the eastern conus around Xmas is the closed low off the West Coast (very little cold air). 

Fast forward to Xmas and I can see some potential for troughing in the eastern conus, but the origin of this trough combined with ridging across Canada suggests another wet system with barely any cold air is the most likely outcome.

I very much doubt this extremely warm pattern will continue too far into the new year, but it's easy to get hung up on the noise of weather instead of analyzing long term signals. Looking at last water year compared to what's already happened this water year, several things are apparent:

1. Last year's West Coast trough shifted west to the East Pacific. This is a major bummer, because if it shifted east then most everyone in this forum would be happy.

2. Last year's weak -NAO is on steroids this years. This is another bummer, because it means the best winter weather compared to normal will probably be in Europe

3. Along the same lines as #2, the East Coast has the best shot at sustained cooler temps but the trough axis is offshore so cold will be punctuated by cutters originating from northern Mexico troughing and clippers diving into the -NAO pattern.

At the end of the day, what's already happened strongly suggests this isn't a favorable pattern for the conus to get sustained winter weather.

[1816]

43 minutes ago, Grace said:

I'm still very skeptical on model guidance for around the Christmas period.  Models are still showing troughiess in East Asia 6-9 days before Christmas.  This would translate to the same in the Eastern US around Christmas.

 

 Like I've said before this DOES NOT automatically translate to cold. I don't think it does in this scenario; however it does translate to models being incorrect on ridge & anomalies & to cooler anomalies than what is currently modeled. Looks like a repeated storm scenario in that period. 

What the models are showing in East Asia is just a few days away from verifying. So I don't expect much change there.  While the Christmas period is still 10 to 15 days away on the models. Smart money is on model's trending toward something closer to what's going to occur in East Asia.

This is a good test: EAR vs Models for the Christmas period.

I got $$ on ear if there's betting. 

[Grace]

1 hour ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

Lots of high latitude blocking across East Asia in the time frame you're watching. The only system that could be moving into the eastern conus around Xmas is the closed low off the West Coast (very little cold air). 

Fast forward to Xmas and I can see some potential for troughing in the eastern conus, but the origin of this trough combined with ridging across Canada suggests another wet system with barely any cold air is the most likely outcome.

I very much doubt this extremely warm pattern will continue too far into the new year, but it's easy to get hung up on the noise of weather instead of analyzing long term signals. Looking at last water year compared to what's already happened this water year, several things are apparent:

1. Last year's West Coast trough shifted west to the East Pacific. This is a major bummer, because if it shifted east then most everyone in this forum would be happy.

2. Last year's weak -NAO is on steroids this years. This is another bummer, because it means the best winter weather compared to normal will probably be in Europe

3. Along the same lines as #2, the East Coast has the best shot at sustained cooler temps but the trough axis is offshore so cold will be punctuated by cutters originating from northern Mexico troughing and clippers diving into the -NAO pattern.

At the end of the day, what's already happened strongly suggests this isn't a favorable pattern for the conus to get sustained winter weather.

 

 Yeah my point was I don't believe what the models are showing in the 10 to 15 days. I think they'll cave to what the East Asia rule is showing.

[Hassaywx1223]

I really just think the water vapor from that volcano has and is effecting the last few winters that’s the wild card and I think that really needs to circulate through

[Grace]

UKMET updated...great looking JFM

500mb

 

2m Temps

 

850mb Temps

 

Precip

 

SST's

[Hoosier]

Admittedly this is grasping, but wonder if the models may have gone a bit too far with slowing/killing off the MJO wave.  They may be right, but there's at least some possibility that it holds together longer and progresses through 7 into 8 a bit quicker.  

If not, well, it wouldn't be the first time that a pattern change to colder wx gets pushed back.  Most of us are here for winter wx, so I think it's natural to see what we want to see and temporarily forget about some of the model biases and tendencies.  The change to a more wintry pattern will (or should) eventually come, but it may just take a bit longer.

Would rather not go into a cold/nw flow type pattern in January, but that is a possibility.  Would be hard to get big time snowmakers in that kind of regime, but maybe some clipper action with any luck.  Those can be good on occasion.  On a local level, the warmer than average wx is going to keep Lake Michigan warmer than average into January.  If we can actually get a proper cold airmass, then it could add a little extra oomph to any lake enhanced/lake effect snow prospects. 

[Hassaywx1223]

Here in nothern Ohio it isn’t  the lack of cold so far it’s the lack of precipitation. Like today the high where I live only made it to 33 and we had snow squalls this morning. Caused a dusting early in the morning. Yes we will go through this mild stretch again to around Christmas but with the mild has been some colder cloudy days it feels like winter half the time so far the problem is there’s just nothing moisture wise getting here. I wouldn’t call it a torch by no means for what November and December could be in northern Ohio I just think the build up of most of us not getting much last year and unfortunately this kind of El Niño winter starting slow this year is killing us mentally due to the lack of snow. Because I can remember plenty of December’s like this in my 33 years of life I think I cut my grass once in December of 09 I believe. But it was never following such a poor winter on record before and for most I think that’s the issue just my opinion

[Grace]

JMA updated...good as well. That's Euro, UKMET, & JMA all in agreement:

JAN

FEB

[Ohiobuckeye45]

I mean it absolutely can't get any worse so anything in January should feel like a dream come true

 

[Cary67]

36 minutes ago, Grace said:

JMA updated...good as well. That's Euro, UKMET, & JMA all in agreement:

JAN

FEB

Yeah this set up looks like a +PNA which puts Western Lakes in NW flow hoping for clippers. Could stay dry especially for non LES areas

[Grace]

4 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Yeah this set up looks like a +PNA which puts Western Lakes in NW flow hoping for clippers. Could stay dry especially for non LES areas

 

For Feb but not Jan. But it's a 30 day mean regardless.

EDIT: My bad, I read your post wrong. You're correct for both months. If fact I'd think you would get a generous share of clippers. 

Edited December 12, 2023 by Grace

[StretchCT]

16 hours ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

I think waiting for and forecasting a SSW is a little bit fools gold. Every year there are calls for a SSW that keep getting pushed back and back. I think it’s better to wait for it to be on the door step or happening to be sure. Plus I don’t think you need a SSW. Just a displacement of the PV will do.

It basically is what it is. Hopefully LR models are on to something with the change in pattern but at this point it’s just wait and see. To see the GFS LR look like it’s being run by the pacific flow with constant warm air being filtered in I’m just not sure anymore. We’ve had some not snowy Decembers as of recent and although a warm December is nothing new for a elnino I was hopeful we might get into a better faze of the MJO and it might help to give some better cold snow chances than we’ve seen or what the long range is currently looking like.

A couple days ago I said I think we will see a pattern change by months end and I think it’s still possible. But right now it looks a bit rough.

Yeah, agree 100%.  Went to look at it today and still nothing. Just like Yukon Cornelius looking for his silver and gold. But wxtwitter keeps saying it's happening

More importantly, is @Graces point. We don't really need it.  Its just something to look for. 

[NWOhioChaser]

Winter thread is looking bleak now. One of those lulls I suppose. Hoping we can get some good news in a couple of weeks. 

[JDClapper]

49 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Winter thread is looking bleak now. One of those lulls I suppose. Hoping we can get some good news in a couple of weeks. 

Get some rest to prepare for Winter's Revenge on the backside. 🥶

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Anyone else die inside a little when work chit chat turns in to weather and you get the

"this weather is great, beats snow for sure" or "I'd take this the next three months" 

🤦💀☠️

[1816]

2 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

I mean it absolutely can't get any worse so anything in January should feel like a dream come true

 

Good thing that hate winter warmth guy left he might have spontaneously combusted

[1816]

1 hour ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Winter thread is looking bleak now. One of those lulls I suppose. Hoping we can get some good news in a couple of weeks. 

 

1 hour ago, JDClapper said:

Get some rest to prepare for Winter's Revenge on the backside. 🥶

We  need to listen more to grace. It's not gonna be a bad winter. It's just not gonna be good the next couple of weeks. If you hit mid January and it's been warm all along and for the forseeable future then by all means, fire away. But we just had a huge fuckin storm with thunder and a rain snow changeover in the middle of the night that left the hilltops white this morning. During a period all said was a torch and a nothingburger. Let's let it play out because if this winter can't hit it then I don't know what the hell to look for. 

[adurb44]

8 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Anyone else die inside a little when work chit chat turns in to weather and you get the

"this weather is great, beats snow for sure" or "I'd take this the next three months" 

🤦💀☠️

I always remind people how much mild winters suck. Constant cloudiness, mushy ground, it blows. Give me cold and snowy with lots of days in the 20s and clear skies over this crap.

[1816]

6 minutes ago, adurb44 said:

I always remind people how much mild winters suck. Constant cloudiness, mushy ground, it blows. Give me cold and snowy with lots of days in the 20s and clear skies over this crap.

Where I'm at, a snowy winter is also a very rainy winter. And we went from drought to humongous rainstorms once a week just recently. I can't help but feel like it's game on.