StormfanaticInd Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Grace said: I've read more whining on social media than I can bare. I've seen nothing change for the worse. The thought has always been a typical warmer El Nino DEC that toward the end of the month begins improving & into JAN has good winter potential. My analog package which consisted of 2 super El Ninos, 3 strong El Ninos, & 2 moderate had the typical Dec warmth. A nice JAN with colder conditions in SE & with a strong Aleutian low. Aleutian low weakens & retrograde in FEB & that month has the strongest high latitude blocking. Winter ends late FEB & transitions to a warmer March. Headed onto January the 0z long-range GFS looks great. I need to study this kind of look at 500 mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 9, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted December 9, 2023 6 hours ago, Grace said: I've read more whining on social media than I can bare. I've seen nothing change for the worse. The thought has always been a typical warmer El Nino DEC that toward the end of the month begins improving & into JAN has good winter potential. My analog package which consisted of 2 super El Ninos, 3 strong El Ninos, & 2 moderate had the typical Dec warmth. A nice JAN with colder conditions in SE & with a strong Aleutian low. Aleutian low weakens & retrograde in FEB & that month has the strongest high latitude blocking. Winter ends late FEB & transitions to a warmer March. Headed onto January the 0z long-range GFS looks great. This is why i dont go on social media. It barely is enough for me to come on forums, but enjoy chatting about weather shame people need to see it on the model to get a grip at what is going on. I get it everyone wants snow but man folks need to have some clarity when it comes to these things. The MJO is going to take its time through 4-7 before we see any real potential. Doesnt mean we cant get a little surprise here and there, i mean look at what happens in the east in a few days. Nice storm for interior new england as the NAO dies folks just need to take a step back and just let things happen. If we go +10 oh well go out and enjoy the jacket less weather. If we get snow great go out and play in it like you are 8 again. Folks just need to relax. We may have one wild swing around the holidays so just be prepared. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 20 hours ago, Pghsnow said: Ugly op run...Pretty bleak for snow on the ground anywhere in the US for Christmas outside of highest terrain. I guess I need to call out the models more often... 😁 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 What’s up with this storm? Been showing up for a few runs and not just on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said: What’s up with this storm? Been showing up for a few runs and not just on the GFS. Looks like another wet system with barely any cold air: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 (edited) 6 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: That extended jet might actually help pump the pna/epo ridge which is huge Agree! We get focused on short term & forget what this may do for towards new year. "Cooler" is key. Cooler comes before any cold outbreaks in JAN. Ain't no switch flipping at Christmas. Edited December 9, 2023 by Grace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said: This is why i dont go on social media. It barely is enough for me to come on forums, but enjoy chatting about weather shame people need to see it on the model to get a grip at what is going on. I get it everyone wants snow but man folks need to have some clarity when it comes to these things. The MJO is going to take its time through 4-7 before we see any real potential. Doesnt mean we cant get a little surprise here and there, i mean look at what happens in the east in a few days. Nice storm for interior new england as the NAO dies folks just need to take a step back and just let things happen. If we go +10 oh well go out and enjoy the jacket less weather. If we get snow great go out and play in it like you are 8 again. Folks just need to relax. We may have one wild swing around the holidays so just be prepared. Agree! Patience! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 9, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Grace said: Agree! We get focused on short term & forget what this may do for towards new year. Always fun to see the jet extension in motion on the models. Just need to make sure it doesn't become a crazy jet extension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 37 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said: Looks like another wet system with barely any cold air: That’s what I thought too with it running up into a warm air mass but GFS and CMC both had snow developing on the NW side of the low as it tracked in. Seemed like a odd look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, SNOWBOB11 said: What’s up with this storm? Been showing up for a few runs and not just on the GFS. The 12z fits the mold better for December (the new December that is) Edited December 9, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 4 hours ago, SNOWBOB11 said: That’s what I thought too with it running up into a warm air mass but GFS and CMC both had snow developing on the NW side of the low as it tracked in. Seemed like a odd look. Agreed, Euro ensembles suggest it'll just be a subtropical low near Florida: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Brutal 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Just for fun...Christmas. Lock it in...lol. I believe it about like I believe in Santa. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 (edited) 21 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Brutal Good old Pac warmth from Aleutian low...MJO. However, you gotta go through it...and, it's good for the heat flux on the SPV in those phases. Now, I'm suspect on the 500mb pattern around Christmas. Model have East Asia in a trough Dec 15-22 which would translate to somewhere between DEC 21-27. This does not necessarily translate to cold but certainly would knock some of those anomalies down. Edited December 10, 2023 by Grace 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: Brutal Sounds about right for Christmas time. Last year was weird, being cold. Didn't compute. 4 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 On 12/9/2023 at 9:20 AM, Grace said: Agree! Patience! I think many are also starting to come to terms with another year where most will not have a white Christmas. But yes, patience is key! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 From a Pgh Met: “The +EAMT we are seeing forecast over the next week is a game changer, and not in a good way, if you're looking for cold and snow in the US. Essentially, something in the short range is likely to lock in longer range changes for later in the month. EMT is Positive East Asian Mountain Torque. It occurs when a significant Arctic high moves by the Himalayan Mountains, from northwest to southeast. As a result, this protracts the Pacific jet when you have a significant +ENSO event. Based on the timing of when this occurs, it should lead to an extended period of very warm conditions east of the Rockies during Christmas week. That likely pushes back the time frame for when we flip to a colder/snowier pattern. We also saw an +EAMT event last year as well, at nearly an identical time. However, because the Walker Circulation was flipped compared to where we are now due to La Niña in 2022, that +EAMT event led to a Pacific jet retraction, and a very significant cold shot into the east to close December. Timeframe for +EAMT related impacts would be from the 18th through the 28th, based on how last year's cold shot evolved. New Canadian looks a lot more in line with what I'd expect with this upcoming pattern. You have strong ensemble agreement on a very strong Pacific jet Christmas week. Confidence goes up even more when the model solutions make sense with what the physical drivers are indicating as well. I wouldn't expect anything other than thread the needle events over the next few weeks. Likely even warmer overall, instead of cold shots sprinkled into the mix, like we currently have now. Still like a big flip for Jan with a continuation of that in Feb. My current thinking is delayed but not denied. “ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 In line with this for Xmas 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Cary67 said: In line with this for Xmas Not only mild, but very dry wx coming up. The system at the beginning of Dec makes this map look wetter than it would've been if that system had occurred just a day or two earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 10 hours ago, JDClapper said: Sounds about right for Christmas time. Last year was weird, being cold. Didn't compute. It is going to take something very significant for me to believe any real cold is coming. Models are teases at this point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 (edited) I think waiting for and forecasting a SSW is a little bit fools gold. Every year there are calls for a SSW that keep getting pushed back and back. I think it’s better to wait for it to be on the door step or happening to be sure. Plus I don’t think you need a SSW. Just a displacement of the PV will do. It basically is what it is. Hopefully LR models are on to something with the change in pattern but at this point it’s just wait and see. To see the GFS LR look like it’s being run by the pacific flow with constant warm air being filtered in I’m just not sure anymore. We’ve had some not snowy Decembers as of recent and although a warm December is nothing new for a elnino I was hopeful we might get into a better faze of the MJO and it might help to give some better cold snow chances than we’ve seen or what the long range is currently looking like. A couple days ago I said I think we will see a pattern change by months end and I think it’s still possible. But right now it looks a bit rough. Edited December 11, 2023 by SNOWBOB11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowloverSid Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/8/2023 at 1:18 AM, StormfanaticInd said: New gefs 🥱 What else is new?! The Grinch is likely to deliver his annual storm that cuts through the lakes. I hope I am wrong. If it has to be mild around Christmas, I hope it is dry and not rainy. It was the night before Christmas, 40 above… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowloverSid Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 18 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Brutal If it can’t snow, I will try to enjoy the mildness, as I did two years ago this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now