Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[StormfanaticInd]

😭😭😭

[StormfanaticInd]

New gefs 🥱

[StLweatherjunkie]

17 hours ago, Grace said:

 

Euro Weeklies

DEC 23-28

JAN 1-6

 

It looks great through mid-JAN. no sense in going further out than what I posted. Looks like a supporting pattern. 

The problem I see with this is very little truly cold air around. Snow chances are probably going to be threading the needle events at 33F, which are sloppy and IHMO not as enjoyable. Case and point being this weekends system bringing rain to Upper Michigan in December!  I fear southern locations could struggle with this problem even during Jan/Feb 🤐

[Grace]

1 hour ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

The problem I see with this is very little truly cold air around. Snow chances are probably going to be threading the needle events at 33F, which are sloppy and IHMO not as enjoyable. Case and point being this weekends system bringing rain to Upper Michigan in December!  I fear southern locations could struggle with this problem even during Jan/Feb 🤐

 

Dec 23-28 for sure. Jan 1-6 would support below normal. But true cold & larger departures look very likely 2nd week of JAN. 

First, the Christmas period. EAR would suggest around Christmas a deeper trough than guidance is currently modeling...if models have a good hold on East Asia right now. I don't expect Arctic cold but slightly below normal for OV.

 

For the 2nd week of JAN. If models are correct on current Bering Sea forecast it would indicate a deeper cold regime in Eastern U.S. for the last several runs of GFS:

This is supported by all ensemble guidance of GEFS, Euro, & 

 

I think the JAN 1-6 period as currently modeled on weeklies, I would expect stormy & up & down with temps. At least that's BSR indicates. The weeklies look is below normal temps then but I'm not sure the model guidance has a good handle there yet. 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 8, 2023 by Grace

[StretchCT]

Quite the pacific jet on this run.

Pretty flat too.

  

[Pghsnow]

Ugly op run...Pretty bleak for snow on the ground anywhere in the US for Christmas outside of highest terrain.

[StormfanaticInd]

1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

Quite the pacific jet on this run.

Pretty flat too.

  

What does this mean?

[Hoosier]

55 minutes ago, Pghsnow said:

Ugly op run...Pretty bleak for snow on the ground anywhere in the US for Christmas outside of highest terrain.

Speaking of...

 

 

[StormfanaticInd]

SSW is a major wildcard this winter 

[Grace]

49 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

What does this mean?

 

Warm Pacific air, until it retracts & creates +PNA & -EPO. 

[Cary67]

Over on American hearing EPS runs are brutal and a respected meteorologist said punt till January. Hopefully the weeklies currently shown on the EPS and GEFS for January verify. Hate to say it but we are in delay mode as models seem to be shifting colder air from latter parts of December now into January. Yikes seen this movie too often. 

Edited December 8, 2023 by Cary67

[Hassaywx1223]

This pattern can’t stick for two winters can it I mean it looks not good right now 

[Mulaman984]

16 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Over on American hearing EPS runs are brutal and a respected meteorologist said punt till January. Hopefully the weeklies currently shown on the EPS and GEFS for January verify. Hate to say it but we are in delay mode as models seem to be shifting colder air from latter parts of December now into January. Yikes seen this movie to often. 

Haven’t seen it - but for 2-3+ weeks out, and is immediately taken verbatim? Yet, one favorable run in that timeframe, at any point in time, is immediately discounted…? 🤔  

Edited December 8, 2023 by Mulaman984

[BuckeyeGal]

Sweet cheezits. The models don’t know what’s happening with accuracy 3-4 days out. I understand following patterns, but everything I’ve read and seen has said back loaded winter. Breathe, people, lol.

[StormfanaticInd]

On 12/7/2023 at 9:00 AM, StormfanaticInd said:

 

We are in an unbelievable snow drought here in Indy and it looks like this record will be easily broken now 

Edited December 8, 2023 by StormfanaticInd

[StLweatherjunkie]

4 hours ago, Grace said:

 

Dec 23-28 for sure. Jan 1-6 would support below normal. But true cold & larger departures look very likely 2nd week of JAN. 

First, the Christmas period. EAR would suggest around Christmas a deeper trough than guidance is currently modeling...if models have a good hold on East Asia right now. I don't expect Arctic cold but slightly below normal for OV.

 

For the 2nd week of JAN. If models are correct on current Bering Sea forecast it would indicate a deeper cold regime in Eastern U.S. for the last several runs of GFS:

This is supported by all ensemble guidance of GEFS, Euro, & 

 

I think the JAN 1-6 period as currently modeled on weeklies, I would expect stormy & up & down with temps. At least that's BSR indicates. The weeklies look is below normal temps then but I'm not sure the model guidance has a good handle there yet. 

 

 

 

 

Sure arctic cold will make it eventually, but not until precipitation is over so snow events will be threading the needle. Hopefully I'm wrong, but early season storm chances have fallen apart into ugly, disorganized systems UP here. 

It's already shaping up to be a NADs season UP here. Hopefully farther south fares better, but I have my doubts. Quebec, Northern New England, and the Canadian maritime provinces seem to have the best shot at bigger storms.

[Grace]

1 hour ago, Cary67 said:

Over on American hearing EPS runs are brutal and a respected meteorologist said punt till January. Hopefully the weeklies currently shown on the EPS and GEFS for January verify. Hate to say it but we are in delay mode as models seem to be shifting colder air from latter parts of December now into January. Yikes seen this movie too often. 

EPS, DEC 23

Paul Roundy's "Low pass MJO, ER Constructed Analog", DEC 27th...looks similar:

 

Oh,not brutal. We've had much worse in DEC. 

 

[Cary67]

Yeah that EPS run doesn't look brutal. I guess I was lending weight to a LOT meteorologist over on American who generally doesn't pull punches and rarely overextends his thoughts on medium range forecasting. 

[beaver56]

1 hour ago, Hassaywx1223 said:

This pattern can’t stick for two winters can it I mean it looks not good right now 

I hope not, but the precipitation pattern has been sorry for a long while in a lot of areas. My gut tells me will be very cool in the spring and pretty mild for an extended period of time in the near future. No data to back that up, but it just has that feel. 

[Grace]

11 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Yeah that EPS run doesn't look brutal. I guess I was lending weight to a LOT meteorologist over on American who generally doesn't pull punches and rarely overextends his thoughts on medium range forecasting. 

 

 It certainly would have bouts of warm Pacific air flooding the CONUS, but I've certainly seen worse in December el Nino.

[StLweatherjunkie]

1 hour ago, Hassaywx1223 said:

This pattern can’t stick for two winters can it I mean it looks not good right now 

Oh no, it's definitely different than last winter. For the whole conus, last November was about 3x snowier according to the post above 

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Over on American hearing EPS runs are brutal and a respected meteorologist said punt till January. Hopefully the weeklies currently shown on the EPS and GEFS for January verify. Hate to say it but we are in delay mode as models seem to be shifting colder air from latter parts of December now into January. Yikes seen this movie too often. 

Was it RC?

[Grace]

Really I've seen no changes. Headed onto January the 0z long-range GFS looks great. 

[Grace]

I've read more whining on social media than I can bare. I've seen nothing change for the worse. The thought has always been a typical warmer El Nino DEC that toward the end of the month begins improving & into JAN has good winter potential. 

My analog package which consisted of 2 super El Ninos, 3 strong El Ninos, & 2 moderate had the typical Dec warmth. 

A nice JAN with colder conditions in SE & with a strong Aleutian low.

Aleutian low weakens & retrograde in FEB & that month has the strongest high latitude blocking. 

 

Winter ends late FEB & transitions to a warmer March. 

 

Headed onto January the 0z long-range GFS looks great. 

[StormfanaticInd]

1 hour ago, Grace said:

I've read more whining on social media than I can bare. I've seen nothing change for the worse. The thought has always been a typical warmer El Nino DEC that toward the end of the month begins improving & into JAN has good winter potential. 

My analog package which consisted of 2 super El Ninos, 3 strong El Ninos, & 2 moderate had the typical Dec warmth. 

A nice JAN with colder conditions in SE & with a strong Aleutian low.

Aleutian low weakens & retrograde in FEB & that month has the strongest high latitude blocking. 

 

Winter ends late FEB & transitions to a warmer March. 

 

Headed onto January the 0z long-range GFS looks great. 

That extended jet might actually help pump the pna/epo ridge which is huge