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Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks


NKYSnowLover

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16 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

When is the last time we had a good December? It seems like it's been a very long time especially here in Indy

I dunno what it’s like in Indy but, December isn’t a big producer of snow for me. JFM almost always much better setup. 

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15 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

When is the last time we had a good December? It seems like it's been a very long time especially here in Indy

It has been a few years for sure.  This is old but it shows what you were alluding to.

https://www.wishtv.com/weather/weather-stories/december-snow-has-lacked-in-recent-years-for-central-indiana/

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19 minutes ago, beaver56 said:

It has been a few years for sure.  This is old but it shows what you were alluding to.

https://www.wishtv.com/weather/weather-stories/december-snow-has-lacked-in-recent-years-for-central-indiana/

When I was kid growing up December's almost always produced. Speaking of the 80s/90s

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2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

When is the last time we had a good December? It seems like it's been a very long time especially here in Indy

I had a great year in 2020 here in Pittsburgh, Over 29 inches, but we only average 7.7 as 30 year average.

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2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

When I was kid growing up December's almost always produced. Speaking of the 80s/90s

I know when I look back the East had a rough spot 60-70s with pretty snowless pattern.

Also had a local weather friend post before that 7 or 8 of our top snowfall storms happened since the late 80s. 
 

edit: had to find some proof. 7/10 since 83, that Feb in 2021 my yard was white till March, one of the longest times I remember seeing snow on the ground. IMG_4563.thumb.png.52a375448dcb26c85eb14bd7f15742ba.png

 

Edited by TLChip
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I will say for Columbus, Ohio, two out of the last three Christmas’ have been solidly white so there’s been good bang for your buck with December snow.

 

I’m hoping we go 3 for 4! 
 

Edit:  We also had a February (was it 2021) where we had a solid snow pack for over 3 weeks I believe, that was fun!

 

What we’ve really missed is a “big one”.  The big ones on the models have busted with cold rain or sleet.  Ironically, SW Ohio has had a few storms over achieve in the last 5 years or so where they got 8+ inches of snow and in two of those Winter Storm Warnings were hoisted after the criteria was already met.

Edited by BoroBuckeye
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3 hours ago, MaineJay said:

I'm not sure how a strong -NAO combined with a strong +EPO would play out. But I'm insanely curious.  

Your post made me curious as well so I did some Googling and from what I can infer from reading some articles, it appears they tend cancel each other.  Thus, the stronger one will produce it's characteristics but to a lesser extent.

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10 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Your post made me curious as well so I did some Googling and from what I can infer from reading some articles, it appears they tend cancel each other.  Thus, the stronger one will produce it's characteristics but to a lesser extent.

I think I'm fantasizing about a monster ridge stretching from Hudson Bay over Greenland that drives weather East to west over the Canadian maritimes into New England.

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4 hours ago, Grace said:

JMA Weeklies just updated. 

Week 1

Screenshot_20231207-102213_Chrome.jpg.d216cbada4779d53c116a921db9f41dd.jpg

 

Week 2

Screenshot_20231207-103945_Chrome.jpg.3cbc6ec76d2c914be3ec8bda75023b09.jpg

 

Week 3 & 4

Screenshot_20231207-104030_Chrome.jpg.74a5e4fcc5d577dd87081eaaf9778a2e.jpg

 

 

And also, the Euro Stratosphere warming is looking impressive by Day 10

10mb

Screenshot_20231207-084208_Chrome.thumb.jpg.56277bbcd9685ca6c9559958246fc55a.jpg

 

50mb

Screenshot_20231207-084354_Chrome.thumb.jpg.dc8987654f367c646cad5db19d3e99d9.jpg

 

 

 

Euro Weeklies

DEC 23-28

Screenshot_20231207-145144_Chrome.thumb.jpg.ed5d94ce9b69423b00e99b470fb8be0a.jpg

JAN 1-6

Screenshot_20231207-145524_Chrome.thumb.jpg.4994ed45cb2fe5ff7bf0857270345868.jpg

 

It looks great through mid-JAN. no sense in going further out than what I posted. Looks like a supporting pattern. 

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5 hours ago, Grace said:

JMA Weeklies just updated. 

Week 1

Screenshot_20231207-102213_Chrome.jpg.d216cbada4779d53c116a921db9f41dd.jpg

 

Week 2

Screenshot_20231207-103945_Chrome.jpg.3cbc6ec76d2c914be3ec8bda75023b09.jpg

 

Week 3 & 4

Screenshot_20231207-104030_Chrome.jpg.74a5e4fcc5d577dd87081eaaf9778a2e.jpg

 

 

And also, the Euro Stratosphere warming is looking impressive by Day 10

10mb

Screenshot_20231207-084208_Chrome.thumb.jpg.56277bbcd9685ca6c9559958246fc55a.jpg

 

50mb

Screenshot_20231207-084354_Chrome.thumb.jpg.dc8987654f367c646cad5db19d3e99d9.jpg

 

 

There really does seem to be decent agreement that the pattern starts to turn as we enter the last 3rd of December and onwards to mid January at least.

Edited by SNOWBOB11
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2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I'm starting to lean towards a torch this winter. That stubborn trough in Alaska is just flooding north America with mild Pacific air with no signs of letting up at all🙄🙄😒. On the bright side at least we can get in a couple of rounds of golf 😎 🌞 

I don’t agree. I think it was always expected that December was going to be warm for at least the first half or first 2/3. There’s good agreement the pattern starts to turn around the 20th ish. Let’s see what the end of December into January holds with a possible solid return of winter.

Edited by SNOWBOB11
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3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I'm starting to lean towards a torch this winter. That stubborn trough in Alaska is just flooding north America with mild Pacific air with no signs of letting up at all🙄🙄😒. On the bright side at least we can get in a couple of rounds of golf 😎 🌞 

Wouldn't go that far, but we can probably punt the next 2 weeks as it looks pretty snowless outside of a rogue/thread the needle setup.  Suspect we'll be waiting to see what the final few days before Christmas do as far as prospects of a white Christmas.  Certainly don't expect to be carrying a long-established snowpack into Christmas.

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