Moderators telejunkie Posted December 5, 2023 Moderators Share Posted December 5, 2023 On 12/4/2023 at 1:04 PM, StretchCT said: Anyone have a link to an EPO index site? This is the only one I have. It's daily data. No chart. No forecast. https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt As far as I know, when they took down the ESRL site, they removed the last place that it was charted and forecasted. I know you know probably all of this Stretch better than me...but for those that don't: I just try to read EPO myself...this is a classic winter +EPO in my book...troughing off the west coast allows tropical Pacific air to flood the entire continent....although sometimes can be more central-states focused if downstream (Atlantic Ocean supports cold in the east) or all states east of the Rockies with no downstream support. So you can see how far north the 540 line is on the 12z Euro....feel like that image was '15-'16 For eastern cold, we'd prefer see ridging spiking up from the Eastern Pacific into Alaska on that 500mb map...it's not a guarantee for cold, but it's one lever that can be pulled to release cold south and east. Here is a brief explanation: https://www.daculaweather.com/4_epo_index.php 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Take care, everyone! Although I've enjoyed interacting with you all, I've decided to call it quits here. May your winters all be white! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 When your EPS snow depth only goes up to 3.9" through mid/late Dec... yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Just now, JDClapper said: When your EPS snow depth only goes up to 3.9" through mid/late Dec... yeah Pattern not our friend right now, at least not through first 3/4 of December 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, TheComet said: Pattern not our friend right now, at least not through first 3/4 of December 2023 I first read that as 3/4, and started to agree 🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Just now, JDClapper said: I first read that as 3/4, and started to agree 🤣 Took me a while but I get it LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 18 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: Take care, everyone! Although I've enjoyed interacting with you all, I've decided to call it quits here. May your winters all be white! Any reason in particular? Gave up on winters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, TheComet said: Any reason in particular? Gave up on winters? Let's just say I know when I'm not wanted! I'll leave this place to the real meteorologists and stop annoying you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 1 hour ago, HateWinterWarmth said: Take care, everyone! Although I've enjoyed interacting with you all, I've decided to call it quits here. May your winters all be white! Eh, no one wants to see you leave, buddy. Might just want to tone down on the bittercasting at times, but otherwise, you're good & definitely a wanted member of our forum. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harberr62 Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 1 hour ago, HateWinterWarmth said: Take care, everyone! Although I've enjoyed interacting with you all, I've decided to call it quits here. May your winters all be white! We all make our own beds so……. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Can we get back to discussing winter please no need to try pity or to try to make someone feel bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Jeez clapper, I have some false hope… there’s always that chance 🤣. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Popular Post MaineJay Posted December 5, 2023 Admin Popular Post Share Posted December 5, 2023 Weather hobbyists can sure be passionate about the weather, especially when it comes to snow. Perhaps it's because we yearn for those simpler times as children, going to bed with snow in the forecast, trying to will enough for them to call off school. Or maybe, it's how a fresh layer of snow can evoke Ansel Adams-esque serenity, but either way, it seems to have quite an effect on many of us so called "weenies". Thus it can become emotional. Getting lots of snow can make one a braggart, and missing out can make one bitter. So posts will often reflect that. I get that repetitive posts about such things as crappy storm tracks, the perfect pattern is just 3 weeks away, the models suck, etc... can be frustrating. If so, there is an ignore feature. And yes, some folks just plain want to get under others skin for whatever reason. We don't want to get into a situation where we need to monitor every post. Sometimes it's just best to let someone vent, and not respond to a poster. We are a fairly small community still, everyone likely knows everyone's temperament, so pointing it out is generally not necessary. As a weather community, it should be something we can talk about, spirited at times, but name calling and rudeness to be avoided. If anyone truly feels they want to leave the forum, message me and I will oblige. Everyone won't agree, and opinions will always vary about weather, and by extension climate, but we can't be in echo chambers either. Sometimes you gotta let it go on, there's lots of bad opinions out there, and pushing back on them often leads to doubling down situations. Winter is young, pessimists will write everything off, likely to avoid disappointment, so it's a defense mechanism. Optimists will try to rally, and hang in there till the last models runs in a dead thread, waiting for that last minute seismic shift. And then there's everything in between. Take it all in stride, do your best to add to the community the things about weather you love. This should be a fun hobby, not a reason for anxiety and consternation. 10 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said: Take care, everyone! Although I've enjoyed interacting with you all, I've decided to call it quits here. May your winters all be white! Come on man stay. We need someone in the most wintery of locales to complain about not enough winter. If you leave we will have to ge stlweatherjunkie or wayuphere to start bitching. If not take care and hopefully the -60 makes it to you soon! Edit: I just read mj post and wanted to clarify to make sure this post is taken correctly @HateWinterWarmth In my opinion we are all a big family and if you have a cousin with some jacked up opinions it would be familial malpractice not to give them a hard time. It doesn't mean you don't love them. Sincerely meant stay. Hopefully we can give each other a hard time all in good fun. Edited December 6, 2023 by 1816 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Snow Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 30 minutes ago, 1816 said: Come on man stay. We need someone in the most wintery of locales to complain about not enough winter. If you leave we will have to ge stlweatherjunkie or wayuphere to start bitching. Or Snobal to throw in the towel 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 3 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said: Let's just say I know when I'm not wanted! I'll leave this place to the real meteorologists and stop annoying you all. Need more posters like you in the NW portion of the region to track storms heading our way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 (edited) It can't be said enough it's too early to despair about winter & it's too uncertain to get excited about the future. Just enjoy the process! I think this will be a fun winter personally, but I also remember that looking back through what I considered great winters were in reality great due to a 2-4 week period. Not many "special" winters where it's wall to wall cold & snow chances. Very rare! That's why they're sooooo talked about. Edited December 6, 2023 by Grace 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Best MJO tool available compliments of Paul Roundy. It has 360 days, click on phase & time of year & it'll give you the average composite. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html Here's early NOV phase 7 vs late DEC phase 7: NOV 7, Phase 7 DEC 27, Phase 7 OCT 8, Phase 8 DEC 27, Phase 8 It's the best MJO tool I've used for time of year phase expectations. There are other factors I know & it's not perfect but no MJO tool is. This is based on extensive research & Paul is a true MJO expert. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted December 6, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 6, 2023 0z Icon is a monster Apps runner. The cold doesn’t catch it in time for most of us but shoooo-eeeee. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 We need to get rid of that trough around Alaska or else this winter is done for 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 🔥 🔥 🔥 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Canadian not as bad. I suspect the models may be too warm for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowloverSid Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 32 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: 🔥 🔥 🔥 Are you sure this isn’t from December 2015? ?! Well, there is January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 6, 2023 Admin Share Posted December 6, 2023 I'm not sure I recall ever seeing a map depicting such CONUS wide dryness. Last 30 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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