Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[beaver56]

9 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Boy this pattern is starting to get very interesting. Models continue to look better and better 

We can only hope. I am skeptical of anything more than 5 days out. Even that is stretch at times. 

[Guest]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

How far are you from Milwaukee?  For MKE, the mean maximum temp in December is 36 and the coldest average daily high is 32.5 on the 31st.

Pewaukee is roughly 20 miles west of Milwaukee. Madison is a closer comp climate wise due to the distance from Lake Michigan.

[Guest]

6 hours ago, 1816 said:

It's a lock bro. Wisconsin, literally one of the coldest places in the lower 48, has no chance of catching a stray arctic air mass or 3 this month. None. Zero.  

I'm not waiting for a stray arctic airmass. I'm waiting for sustained cold (or at least average) temperatures. 

[SOMOSnow]

[StormfanaticInd]

8 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said:

I think the models are starting to adjust 

[SOMOSnow]

[1816]

22 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

I'm not waiting for a stray arctic airmass. I'm waiting for sustained cold (or at least average) temperatures. 

All due respect and I do give you a hard time but it is all in fun. You really do need to relocate to Siberia bud. You live in a frigid area of the continental us and it's not enough. Those temps from Siberia you posted light your fuse? You kinda need to go there for that. 

[Guest]

Just now, 1816 said:

All due respect and I do give you a hard time but it is all in fun. You really do need to relocate to Siberia bud. You live in a frigid area of the continental us and it's not enough. Those temps from Siberia you posted light your fuse? You kinda need to go there for that. 

I probably deserve a hard time, but all I'm really looking for are normal temperatures so I can ice fish and snowmobile. Weeks on end of upper 30s/low 40s when the lakes should be freezing, year after year has gotten old.

[beaver56]

11 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

I probably deserve a hard time, but all I'm really looking for are normal temperatures so I can ice fish and snowmobile. Weeks on end of upper 30s/low 40s when the lakes should be freezing, year after year has gotten old.

I will say this, maybe our weather patterns we are complaining about are the new norm. I am debating climate change by that comment, but simply trends and observations from the last several years. I believe all of this is cyclical. 

[1816]

3 minutes ago, beaver56 said:

I will say this, maybe our weather patterns we are complaining about are the new norm. I am debating climate change by that comment, but simply trends and observations from the last several years. I believe all of this is cyclical. 

I believe it will swing around and we are insignificant in the big picture. But every year that goes by anomalously warm chips away at my thoughts.  If it going to swing,, a year like this better be the one to do it.  

[HVSNOWSTORM]

On 12/1/2023 at 11:31 AM, so_whats_happening said:

Thanks for posting. I more so would rather have him (Elon) allow people to read threads versus having to be on a platform. Personally I just do not find social media important enough to create an account forums is about as far as I go with it all. Shame the way of the blog has essentially ceased to exist anymore, just 150 word tidbits that leave folks asking more questions than get answered.

BTW he probably is referencing something like this.

Connection of SSW and MJO.pdf 288.05 kB · 2 downloads

You'll find more weather info on X then you will anywhere else as well as more meteorologists. It is 100% worth it to take 2 mij to sign up, follow some weather accounts and more will pop up. There's no downside.

[StLweatherjunkie]

2 hours ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

You'll find more weather info on X then you will anywhere else as well as more meteorologists. It is 100% worth it to take 2 mij to sign up, follow some weather accounts and more will pop up. There's no downside.

Using social media is the downside. Short form communication enables limited attention spans that are plaguing our society by inhibiting discussion of complicated topics.

There's far more unbiased weather info on tropical tidbits, pivotal weather, weatherbell, etc ... IMHO it's not even a close comparison.

[StLweatherjunkie]

16 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

I'm not waiting for a stray arctic airmass. I'm waiting for sustained cold (or at least average) temperatures. 

I know you're not a meteorologist, but by this point in your life I would expect you to understand that's not how weather works. 

Temperatures commonly go from above to below normal and back in the same week, much less month or season. It's unrealistic to expect persistent near to below normal temperatures for weeks or months on end. 

As others have alluded to, climate change skews the odds in favor of warmer than normal temps. If all you want is frozen lakes for ice fishing then @1816 is right, move someplace that is cold enough for above normal temps to still be below freezing. 

I know this is harsh, but I think we're all a bit tired of hearing about Wisconsin not being cold enough for ice fishing. It's just not useful information for a discussion about seasonal forecasting.

[StLweatherjunkie]

On 11/30/2023 at 9:02 AM, TheComet said:

One thing I notice is that there haven't been that many GLC's. Many southern streamers but disconnected from polar jet. I guess that's an encouraging sign. La Nina's favor GLC's so upper great lakes region does well.

Hmmm 🤔 

Sure looks like a GLC -> coastal transfer kind of pattern so far:

FWIW, many southern Midwest/OHV locations haven't had a decent winter since the 2013/14 polar vortex winter. When compared to easy coast cities, they're due.

[so_whats_happening]

18 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

Hmmm 🤔 

Sure looks like a GLC -> coastal transfer kind of pattern so far:

FWIW, many southern Midwest/OHV locations haven't had a decent winter since the 2013/14 polar vortex winter. When compared to easy coast cities, they're due.

Yea seems like it thus far back end of the troughing has been keeping us dry for quite some time now. If it weren't for that rain around veterans day would been another abnormally dry 2 month period again.

Would be cool to have systems coast to coast under a large ridging pattern in Canada. Lack of true cold air but it would get people snowfall.

Edited December 3, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[Jon Snow]

1 hour ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

I know you're not a meteorologist, but by this point in your life I would expect you to understand that's not how weather works. 

Temperatures commonly go from above to below normal and back in the same week, much less month or season. It's unrealistic to expect persistent near to below normal temperatures for weeks or months on end. 

As others have alluded to, climate change skews the odds in favor of warmer than normal temps. If all you want is frozen lakes for ice fishing then @1816 is right, move someplace that is cold enough for above normal temps to still be below freezing. 

I know this is harsh, but I think we're all a bit tired of hearing about Wisconsin not being cold enough for ice fishing. It's just not useful information for a discussion about seasonal forecasting.

And to your point, here in Roanoke we are making it to 70 today, the warmest in quite some time, and also today my forecast shows snow by Tues night, the first time this season for snow to show up in the forecast.  Will it happen?  Maybe not, but I am sure we will go from sunny and warm today to cold rain by Wed.

 

[1816]

10 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

And to your point, here in Roanoke we are making it to 70 today, the warmest in quite some time, and also today my forecast shows snow by Tues night, the first time this season for snow to show up in the forecast.  Will it happen?  Maybe not, but I am sure we will go from sunny and warm today to cold rain by Wed.

 

And the whole warmup first to get cold and snow later thing usually works. I'm ok with warm snaps in the winter because the snap back to cold is where you find your opportunities. As long as the warm spell isn't 3 months long like last year. 

[Cdfarabaugh]

4 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

Short form communication enables limited attention span

Holy shit isn't this the truth.  Since I took up teaching I didn't realize how bad it is.  They'll sit n watch stupid reels for an hour on end, but if I talk for 20 minutes you'd swear I gave them a double dose of benadryl.  

Social media needs to go the F$@*% away!

 

 

[Guest]

4 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

I know you're not a meteorologist, but by this point in your life I would expect you to understand that's not how weather works. 

Temperatures commonly go from above to below normal and back in the same week, much less month or season. It's unrealistic to expect persistent near to below normal temperatures for weeks or months on end. 

As others have alluded to, climate change skews the odds in favor of warmer than normal temps. If all you want is frozen lakes for ice fishing then @1816 is right, move someplace that is cold enough for above normal temps to still be below freezing. 

I know this is harsh, but I think we're all a bit tired of hearing about Wisconsin not being cold enough for ice fishing. It's just not useful information for a discussion about seasonal forecasting.

Isn't there an ignore button you could hit?

[1816]

50 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Isn't there an ignore button you could hit?

 

5 minutes ago, 1816 said:

You're talking to the guy that moved to the up of Michigan from missouri. Shut up unless you do what I said and move to Winnipeg. 

That's the ultimate put your money where your mouth is move imo. Tired of not enough cold or snow? Move north. 

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, 1816 said:

You're talking to the guy that moved to the up of Michigan from missouri. Shut up unless you do what I said and move to Winnipeg. 

I moved from Southern California to Wisconsin. Does that count?

[1816]

Just now, HateWinterWarmth said:

I moved from Southern California to Wisconsin. Does that count?

Yeah but based on your post history you didn't go far enough lol. 

[Guest]

Just now, 1816 said:

Yeah but based on your post history you didn't go far enough lol. 

When I moved here, we had real winters. If Winnepeg wasn't Canada I'd  consider it though. 

[1816]

Just now, HateWinterWarmth said:

When I moved here, we had real winters. If Winnepeg wasn't Canada I'd  consider it though. 

Caribou ME still has plenty of room. That or Fargo is where you should be friend. 

[StLweatherjunkie]

38 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

When I moved here, we had real winters. If Winnepeg wasn't Canada I'd  consider it though. 

If I recall correctly, you moved like 10 years ago. This means you haven't been there long enough to know what an average winter is like, but 2013-14 wasn't close. It was a 'real winter' though as opposed to last winter which was totally fake. 🤡

There are plenty of lakes in northern WI and the UP that freeze every year. Teal Lake (466 acres) a few miles from me just froze and there should be shanties out there in the next week or two. Some won't leave the ice until March/April. This is late too because Nov averaged 32.1F or about 1.3F warmer than normal.