Grace Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 (edited) BOM, Australian....has MJO in Phase 8 pretty quick. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out Today's GEFS Edited November 30, 2023 by Grace 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 Interesting to see the models have a couple half decent threats for the great lakes areas. 4th, 7th and 11th systems have all shifted the snow south a bit and now my area is in the mix for frozen precipitation. We will see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 Models are looking better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 (edited) JMA new December Forecast Most of big cold in Europe & Asia, but that's certainly not a blowtorch CONUS. JMA old DEC forecast That's a big difference since it's prediction on NOV 13th. And it's a lesson to NOT put much stock in upcoming updates for JAN/FEB. Edited November 30, 2023 by Grace 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 1, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted December 1, 2023 4 hours ago, Grace said: BOM, Australian....has MJO in Phase 8 pretty quick. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out Today's GEFS The mode has been for a rather slow progression in the MJO. So I do tend to agree with the GEFS extended a bit more, BOMM has been horrible with MJO forecasts this year. I would expect the cold to come in again last few days of the month to January in the east. Again it does not mean we can't have a bout or two of cold in the east in between then just the overall progression suggests mild across the country except for maybe the PAC NW and the far NE regions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 This thread is absolutely golden & worth the read! For certain worth the click & reading! A good glimpse of where things are in all likelihood are headed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 1, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted December 1, 2023 Wish I could read the thread but I do not have a twitter account, just doesn't seem worth it to me. Im sure you have seen my post about the look in American Wx, wouldn't expect much to transpire until mid January as far as sensible weather if indeed this type of solution came about. It is usually about two weeks after Urals ridging to when we get solid wave activity to really hit the SPV maybe an actual SSW (not just a warming episode) as we close out the year? Possible but really really far in advance to know for certain. Would like to see some larger storms take shape in the Atlantic to really up the ante going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 7 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Wish I could read the thread but I do not have a twitter account, just doesn't seem worth it to me. Im sure you have seen my post about the look in American Wx, wouldn't expect much to transpire until mid January as far as sensible weather if indeed this type of solution came about. It is usually about two weeks after Urals ridging to when we get solid wave activity to really hit the SPV maybe an actual SSW (not just a warming episode) as we close out the year? Possible but really really far in advance to know for certain. Would like to see some larger storms take shape in the Atlantic to really up the ante going forward. Explains MJO related to SSW etc. Then big take away: You need to get Twitter bro! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Siberia dreamin', on such a mild day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 1, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted December 1, 2023 3 hours ago, Grace said: Explains MJO related to SSW etc. Then big take away: You need to get Twitter bro! Thanks for posting. I more so would rather have him (Elon) allow people to read threads versus having to be on a platform. Personally I just do not find social media important enough to create an account forums is about as far as I go with it all. Shame the way of the blog has essentially ceased to exist anymore, just 150 word tidbits that leave folks asking more questions than get answered. BTW he probably is referencing something like this. Connection of SSW and MJO.pdf 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 1, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted December 1, 2023 Just now, so_whats_happening said: Thanks for posting. I more so would rather have him (Elon) allow people to read threads versus having to be on a platform. Personally I just do not find social media important enough to create an account forums is about as far as I go with it all. Shame the way of the blog has essentially ceased to exist anymore, just 150 word tidbits that leave folks asking more questions than get answered. BTW he probably is referencing something like this. Connection of SSW and MJO.pdf 288.05 kB · 0 downloads Or even this Blocking Precursors to SSW.pdf Tropospheric Precursors and Strato Warmings.pdf 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 13 hours ago, NEPAsnow said: The warmth now prevails through the entire month of December. Maybe I'll be on the ice by mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 8 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: The warmth now prevails through the entire month of December. Maybe I'll be on the ice by mid January. inwisconsis, what is your average temps in December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 middle two weeks of Dec have been somewhat mild and have been predicted by many mets to be this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 37 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: The warmth now prevails through the entire month of December. Maybe I'll be on the ice by mid January. Which was predicted by every El Niño like this and every met this year no one expected winter til Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 2 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said: The warmth now prevails through the entire month of December. Maybe I'll be on the ice by mid January. Wait what? So now you're writing off the entire month of December when that's not even what he said at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 25 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said: Wait what? So now you're writing off the entire month of December when that's not even what he said at all? It's a lock bro. Wisconsin, literally one of the coldest places in the lower 48, has no chance of catching a stray arctic air mass or 3 this month. None. Zero. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, 1816 said: It's a lock bro. Wisconsin, literally one of the coldest places in the lower 48, has no chance of catching a stray arctic air mass or 3 this month. None. Zero. Well, on second thought, you're definitely right. Thanks for correcting me. Well done. 😀 🎯 ✅️ 💯 😂 Edited December 2, 2023 by SOMOSnow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 4 hours ago, NEPAsnow said: inwisconsis, what is your average temps in December? Average high is 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 (edited) 21 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: Average high is 31 How far are you from Milwaukee? For MKE, the mean maximum temp in December is 36 and the coldest average daily high is 32.5 on the 31st. Edited December 2, 2023 by Hoosier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 54 minutes ago, Hoosier said: How far are you from Milwaukee? For MKE, the mean maximum temp in December is 36 and the coldest average daily high is 32.5 on the 31st. Pewaukee western burb of Milwaukee basically. Not too far north of my area. Already a thread for possible system Dec9-12th. The rest of December not completely hopeless whether this verifies or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 30 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Pewaukee western burb of Milwaukee basically. Not too far north of my area. Already a thread for possible system Dec9-12th. The rest of December not completely hopeless whether this verifies or not. Thanks for the info. It's important to base expectations on correct info. I mean, avg highs for MKE and ORD are still 40ish in early December. It's already snowed a couple times, both MKE and ORD are running above average snowfall to date, and there is another chance of snow in the short range. Yes, it's going to warm up and I'd agree that the whole month is not hopeless. Even if December ends up being lackluster, well, that's not all that uncommon in Ninos. In that case, hope for better in the new year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 Boy this pattern is starting to get very interesting. Models continue to look better and better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now