Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Grace]

14 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

The models were picking up on it in addition to you seeing it using BSR. 

 

One month out???

[Guest]

Just now, Grace said:

 

One month out???

2-3 weeks out. Around this time in 2022, the models were saying the cold was coming during the 2nd week of December. It ended up coming the 3rd week. 

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

I just went back and looked at last year's thread. Around this time, the discussion was that cold blast would occur around the 2nd week of December. It ended up happening in the 3rd week. But yes, the models were picking up on it. 

I'm fairly new here, but it seems like it's kind of your thing to go all-in on warmth.  Last December ended up being the least warm/coldest one in several years... yes it was greatly aided by the cold snap around Christmas, but the numbers are the numbers. 

We'll be going into a milder period relatively soon, but at this point there's nothing really compelling to suggest that December is going to be a torchy month overall even if it does end up a bit warmer than average.  And believe me, I've soured on Decembers given the recent tendencies so I am looking for a reason for it to torch.  Just not seeing that kind of warmth though.  Snowfall is another story of course and hopefully things will be OK as far as that goes.

[TLChip]

Did it pickup the record cold that smashed northern NE in Feb? Mount Washington, NH set the lowest wind chill ever, iirc. 
 

Also not sure why you would throw in the last three years, all ninos. 

Edited November 28, 2023 by TLChip

[Guest]

58 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm fairly new here, but it seems like it's kind of your thing to go all-in on warmth.  Last December ended up being the least warm/coldest one in several years... yes it was greatly aided by the cold snap around Christmas, but the numbers are the numbers. 

We'll be going into a milder period relatively soon, but at this point there's nothing really compelling to suggest that December is going to be a torchy month overall even if it does end up a bit warmer than average.  And believe me, I've soured on Decembers given the recent tendencies so I am looking for a reason for it to torch.  Just not seeing that kind of warmth though.  Snowfall is another story of course and hopefully things will be OK as far as that goes.

I've just gotten my hopes up too many times over the past decade to expect anything other than worst-case scenario in December. Hopefully you and others are right and we just end up marginally warm this year instead of extremely warm. 

Keep in mind I'm not a meteorologist at all. I'm a winter outdoor sports enthusiast with an interest in weather, so I tend to get worked up this time of year. 

[Grace]

2 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

2-3 weeks out. Around this time in 2022, the models were saying the cold was coming during the 2nd week of December. It ended up coming the 3rd week. 

 

Well, I think it's you that said cold hardly ever verifies bit warm always does on models. 😜

Since the models are seeing cold in the future I guess that bodes well. 😄

Also, a blind squirrel finds a nut everynow & then. 

[Hoosier]

Apologies if someone has already posted something like this before, but I thought it would be interesting to break down the strong Ninos into 2 groups.  The first composite is DJF temperature anomalies for the 3 strongest Ninos since 1950:  1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.

 

 

Now here is the composite for the other strong Ninos since 1950.  A couple of these flirted with or even got into what is considered "super Nino" status, namely 1972-73 but even 1965-66 peaked as borderline super depending on rounding. 

 

Quite the difference, right?  

Not sure things will end up quite as cool as the 2nd composite, but be very careful with the notion that the winter will end up very mild just because of how strong this Nino is getting.

[Grace]

Couple of things:

#1 SPV on the weeklies even weaker today than yesterday as we go along in DEC. We do not have to have a SSW. Just a weaker SPV & the forcing for Nino & favorable MJO phases will be perfect. 

With that said, looking at the trend of the Euro, during an El Nino year with a -QBO & on average late DEC & early JAN is when SSW's often occur in those years....we might be looking at a SSW late month. If not prob better as long a SPV keeps taking hits & stays weak. An SSW just complicates it not know how things will shake out.

 

#2 Watching the 12z GFS over East Asia indicates several troughs that would correlate to east U.S. 6-10 days later. If GFS is forecasting that correctly it certainly means no constant warmth/torch. So I think we get several cool downs. However, my greatest concern is while getting some cold shots the EAR indicates possible dry. 

[Grace]

11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Apologies if someone has already posted something like this before, but I thought it would be interesting to break down the strong Ninos into 2 groups.  The first composite is DJF temperature anomalies for the 3 strongest Ninos since 1950:  1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.

 

 

Now here is the composite for the other strong Ninos since 1950.  A couple of these flirted with or even got into what is considered "super Nino" status, namely 1972-73 but even 1965-66 peaked as borderline super depending on rounding. 

 

Quite the difference, right?  

Not sure things will end up quite as cool as the 2nd composite, but be very careful with the notion that the winter will end up very mild just because of how strong this Nino is getting.

 

#1 The El Nino getting stronger is a good thing. There has been a lot of debating of how coupled the Nino has been. Good minds & Mers on both sides have made good points. I kind of lean on the side that there has been some La Nina atmospheric hangover a little from time time which is not good.

#2 The current strengthening of this El Nino is considered good in this circumstance, by several good Mets. It takes care of problem #1 & results in better Nino forcing. MJO 8-1-2 is favored late DEC into JAN due to this & that's very good. I would argue the recent strengthening was probably what caused the -NAO block that models did not pick up on & will statistically repeat in JAN/FEB but during the favorable MJO as Eric Webb's research was shown here a couple of days ago. 

#3 The forcing of this El Nino has been totally different than 82-83, 97-98, & 2015-16...which is good. Walker cell is in a better location as well. 

So bottom line, in this scenario some strengthening to this El Nino is good. 

[StormfanaticInd]

The Pacific jet is doing its dirty work. Flooding north America with mild air for the foreseeable future 

[Guest]

8 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

 mild

That word just makes me cringe. Anyone else? 

[Hassaywx1223]

8 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

The Pacific jet is doing its dirty work. Flooding north America with mild air for the foreseeable future 

No one had in their forecasts anything significant til after Christmas it’s a typical El Niño pattern 

[Grace]

 

[JDClapper]

Some random history here for Central PA over the past 22 years I've kept seasonal snow records. (01 - 22)

0" by Dec 1st has occurred 8 out of 22 years (36%)
The Avg snowfall for these 8 seasons = 33".  Coincidentally, the 22 yr avg is 33.3".
There is a 50/50 chance of being above or below 33" when 0" has occurred by Dec 1st.
2 of top 3 winters had 0" before Dec 1st. (20-21, 04-05),
2 yrs had 0" by Jan 1st! (15-16, 06-07)

20-21 = 55"
17-18 = 29"
15-16 = 7.25"
09-10 = 33.25"
06-07 = 29.75"
04-05 = 53.50"
03-04 = 36.75"
01-02 = 19"

Edited November 29, 2023 by JDClapper

[beaver56]

1 hour ago, Grace said:

 

Anyone care to explain to a moron like me, what the hell this means? 😆 

[1816]

11 minutes ago, beaver56 said:

Anyone care to explain to a moron like me, what the hell this means? 😆 

10 days ago the Euro said the ao was gonna be positive the first week of December.  Then 6 days later it said ao is going off a cliff and way negative instead. 

 

It shows how deeply futile and dare I say silly it is to declare anything torchy or whatever it may be weeks ahead of time.  These models can't do it. They can barely manage to get a few days at a time right. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by 1816

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, 1816 said:

10 days ago the Euro said the ao was gonna be positive the first week of December.  Then 6 days later it said ao is going off a cliff and way negative instead. 

 

It shows how deeply futile and dare I say silly it is to declare anything torchy or whatever it may be weeks ahead of time.  These models can't do it. They can barely manage to get a few days at a time right. 

But +AO or -AO, the torch did in fact verify, did it not? 

[mafa]

1 minute ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

But +AO or -AO, the torch did in fact verify, did it not? 

It can’t verify until it actually happens. 

[StretchCT]

653 days without an inch of snow in Central Park.  Yesterday had some flurries for a trace, so no record for latest flakes this year   

[Grace]

On 11/24/2023 at 7:48 AM, Grace said:

BSR suggests something potentially brewing around DEC 11-13 time frame:

 

 

Question is how much cold at that time. If there is enough cold watch out. 🤞

 

 

Well...looks, looky what showed up on 12z GFS. Now if we can get enough cold to wrap in...

 

[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

653 days without an inch of snow in Central Park.  Yesterday had some flurries for a trace, so no record for latest flakes this year   

That's crazy when you see how relatively clustered the other 9 years are.  

[1816]

33 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

But +AO or -AO, the torch did in fact verify, did it not? 

It's cold here in VA so I would say the only thing verifying here right now is high heating bills and dry skin. The rest of November and half of December is yet to be determined. 

[TLChip]

I always figured November and December snows are “bonus” in SEPA. January is typically when “winter” shows up around here. Cold blasts and chances of snow possible but don’t bet on it for extended periods of time.  
 

2nd day in a row closer to NEPA and won’t break 32 again. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by TLChip

[1816]

14 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

Well...looks, looky what showed up on 12z GFS. Now if we can get enough cold to wrap in...

 

Honestly I'd be happy if it would just rain like that. 

[TLChip]

Just now, 1816 said:

Honestly I'd be happy if it would just rain like that. 

Yeah the mid Atlantic has been dry lately.