Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[StormfanaticInd]

25 minutes ago, 1816 said:

Especially at 45 day leads. It's crazy. 

It's absolutely maddening. 😤🤣🤣

[StormfanaticInd]

42 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Exactly - I've said this as well and people act like I'm crazy. OK, maybe I am crazy but it's true. Torches are the one thing the models get right every time. 

Everytime without fail it seems. 😒🙄😆

[so_whats_happening]

Pretty typical wave 1 response at 10mb even with a -NAO regime. It should allow the SE to have a more average to slightly above average 2m Temp profile for at least the first half of December, most of the country may be quite above average. Cold pushes over to Europe and Asia. Quite a ways out for the second half of the month but the upper level warming and associated ridge at 10mb should allow for a response to higher heights in the Pac NW at 500mb in time. The -NAO should disappear as we get toward mid month when it does weaken that is when you typically look for big storms. Not to say you cant get potential winter weather with this setup just harder to get cold air to be more prevalent, even while being the start of the coldest time of the year. In fact you can probably get a nice storm to slide underneath the block, again just need to match it with some cold air around, transient PNA pattern will also have some potential. 

 

 

Edited November 27, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

Pretty typical wave 1 response at 10mb even with a -NAO regime. It should allow the SE to have a more average to slightly above average 2m Temp profile for at least the first half of December, most of the country may be quite above average. Cold pushes over to Europe and Asia. Quite a ways out for the second half of the month but the upper level warming and associated ridge at 10mb should allow for a response to higher heights in the Pac NW at 500mb in time. The -NAO should disappear as we get toward mid month when it does weaken that is when you typically look for big storms. Not to say you cant get potential winter weather with this setup just harder to get cold air to be more prevalent, even while being the start of the coldest time of the year. In fact you can probably get a nice storm to slide underneath the block, again just need to match it with some cold air around, transient PNA pattern will also have some potential. 

 

 

I shoukd add the 4th-6th looks like one of those interesting time periods. Also models tend to diminish the effects of the -NAO all too quickly i would expect close to 2 weeks worth of blocking to occur.

I think what would be really fun is if we can get mid and lower strat ridging to push over to the greenland region it can help re enforce the pattern down the road and allow for some better potential at a much better SSW event as we go into the end of the year/ new year.

[JDClapper]

Dang, 12z EPS is a ghost town for snow threats through 12/11 here in Central PA. A onesie twosie randomly thrown in there, but no noticeable "hmm, maybe!?" periods

[StormfanaticInd]

Looking pretty cold tonight and tomorrow night. 🥶 

[Guest]

Just now, StormfanaticInd said:

Looking pretty cold tonight and tomorrow night. 🥶 

Yep... I'll soak this in while I can.  Won't see temps this low again until January. 

[NEPAsnow]

 

[1816]

I wrote this morning about a setup pitcher and a closer. Something big may happen in time for Christmas  this year. Maybe not. But either way, even if it does happen there are some hoops that have to be jumped through. 

 

Unless you are in Northern new England or the upper Midwest forget about the next week or so. But whatever happens then may be the setup needed if something big and widespread is coming mid month into Christmas. 

[NEPAsnow]

 

[Grace]

Weeklies look pretty good. 

 

SPV still trending weaker. This might be it's weakest mean. 

[SNOWBOB11]

3 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Yep... I'll soak this in while I can.  Won't see temps this low again until January. 

Dude it’s November. There’s no way you can know what the temperatures are going to be like for all of December. This goes under bittercasting or wishcasting and adds nothing to the winter thread.

[Guest]

55 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

Dude it’s November. There’s no way you can know what the temperatures are going to be like for all of December. This goes under bittercasting or wishcasting and adds nothing to the winter thread.

I'd argue it's a long range forecast based on the last 10 Decembers and the current available information about what's coming. 

[SNOWBOB11]

28 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

I'd argue it's a long range forecast based on the last 10 Decembers and the current available information about what's coming. 

There’s no accurate way to determine what the weathers going to be like over a month ahead. You said it’s not going to get even as cold as it is right now for an entire month. You done know that you can’t predict that. It’s not a forecast it’s whining.

[Grace]

9 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

I'd argue it's a long range forecast based on the last 10 Decembers and the current available information about what's coming. 

There's no current information about what's coming. If it happens it happens but enough of the emotional posting about warmth. BUT I UNDERSTAND THE FRUSTRATION!

Will it be warm? Well, it's El Nino & most DEC are warmer than average in El Nino. Will not be a surprise if it is. The good news is that it does not look as anomalous as some in the past have been. We still could get a period or 2 of below normal temps & snow chances but all in all El Nino winters are back loaded. 

During all the -NAO talk I pointed out it's better news for later but we'll still have warm this month with it. 

Edited November 28, 2023 by Grace

[Grace]

CFS NOV 27-DEC 27

 

If that verified that would be a pleasant El Nino Dec.

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Looks like the northeast might be in for a decent noreaster next week

[Guest]

8 hours ago, Grace said:

CFS NOV 27-DEC 27

 

If that verified that would be a pleasant El Nino Dec.

 

Let's lock it in!

[BuckeyeGal]

As long as it isn't 60 degrees on Christmas Day, December can do what it wants. I'm waiting for the main event (as it currently looks with trends) in January and February. Anything else is gravy. 🙂

[StretchCT]

EPS backed off yesterdays torch of a run, looks more like the gfs with a weak trough in the east.  But at least no Bermuda high anymore.

[Hoosier]

15 hours ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

Dude it’s November. There’s no way you can know what the temperatures are going to be like for all of December. This goes under bittercasting or wishcasting and adds nothing to the winter thread.

I'm wondering what the models had at this point last year for the Christmas 2022 time frame.  I can't remember if the super long range picked up on that massive cold blast.  

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm wondering what the models had at this point last year for the Christmas 2022 time frame.  I can't remember if the super long range picked up on that massive cold blast.  

I just went back and looked at last year's thread. Around this time, the discussion was that cold blast would occur around the 2nd week of December. It ended up happening in the 3rd week. But yes, the models were picking up on it. 

[Grace]

1 hour ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

I just went back and looked at last year's thread. Around this time, the discussion was that cold blast would occur around the 2nd week of December. It ended up happening in the 3rd week. But yes, the models were picking up on it. 

 

Was it picked up by models far out or was that me using BSR??

[Grace]

4 hours ago, StretchCT said:

EPS backed off yesterdays torch of a run, looks more like the gfs with a weak trough in the east.  But at least no Bermuda high anymore.

 

This is a good example of model run to run variability. It'll drive anyone crazy following every run as gospel. Just a couple of weeks ago zero models picked up on this upcoming -NAO block. My point is models are not gospel.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

Was it picked up by models far out or was that me using BSR??

The models were picking up on it in addition to you seeing it using BSR.