Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Grace]

On 11/24/2023 at 7:48 AM, Grace said:

BSR suggests something potentially brewing around DEC 11-13 time frame:

 

 

Question is how much cold at that time. If there is enough cold watch out. 🤞

 

 

I've been watching East Asia for the time frame that would correlate to above & themes been absolutely no system showing up at all...and boom, a system appeared out of nowhere on GFS & Euro. 

GFS trend:

Euro, just now coming in range

 

Watch the evolution of this over the next 4-5 days because it could be telling if there's anything wintry in the works or not. Remember for your vision, Seoul, South Korea correlates with Paducah, Ky. 

East Asia is only 9-10 days out & models just now coming around to something there so I certainly don't trust LR modeling but FWIW, CFS has something in theceast U.S. 15 days out:

Edited November 25, 2023 by Grace

[NEPAsnow]

The cold seems to be coming in a little quicker then previous model runs.

[Grace]

 

#1 -2009-10...I know you're all familar with.

#2 1939-40...I'll post DJF & then a blend with 2009-10

 

DJF Blend

[NEPAsnow]

 

[NEPAsnow]

 

[Cdfarabaugh]

CPC says get the grill ready..........🙃😆

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Cdfarabaugh said:

CPC says get the grill ready..........🙃😆

Of course it does. 

[NEPAsnow]

[Guest]

Doldrums as far as the eye can see. 

[JDClapper]

3 hours ago, NEPAsnow said:

Would love to see like a past 5 days run by run trend on this. <insert lame generic dont take these verbatim-type comment/disclaimer here>

[SOMOSnow]

Wichita, KS area won big yesterday. Storm overachieved and outdid the models in spite of the warm ground. 14.1 inches of snow accumulation was highest reported. 

[Ingyball]

17 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said:

Wichita, KS area won big yesterday. Storm overachieved and outdid the models in spite of the warm ground. 14.1 inches of snow accumulation was highest reported. 

We never got above 30 here (and maybe not at the airport either) most models had us briefly at 32 or 33 during the afternoon. I think that was the big difference here. 

 

Edit: Yup, once the snow started the airport never went above 29 degrees. About 2 to 3 degrees cooler than expected.

Edited November 26, 2023 by Ingyball

[SOMOSnow]

9 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

We never got above 30 here (and maybe not at the airport either) most models had us briefly at 32 or 33 during the afternoon. I think that was the big difference here. 

 

Edit: Yup, once the snow started the airport never went above 29 degrees. About 2 to 3 degrees cooler than expected.

That definitely made a big difference. Happy for you! 

[StormfanaticInd]

Storm later this week could be interesting 

[SOMOSnow]

[SNOWBOB11]

Operational models are probably going to be all over the place. They’re always terrible when there’s a pattern change. I like the look of the upcoming pattern. Might be after the first 10 or so days of December before things get going but looks like we have a better chance for some winter weather after that.

[beaver56]

2 hours ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

Operational models are probably going to be all over the place. They’re always terrible when there’s a pattern change. I like the look of the upcoming pattern. Might be after the first 10 or so days of December before things get going but looks like we have a better chance for some winter weather after that.

As long as it isn't 62 like it was in 21 I will be fine with about anything

[MaineJay]

It's possible the MJO is fairly coherent and completes an orbit, albeit at lesser magnitude as it deconstructively interferes with the Niño base state.

[TheComet]

The STJ needs to calm down, else it will be case of cold ousted by storms as they approach, resulting in rain.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, TheComet said:

The STJ needs to calm down, else it will be case of cold ousted by storms as they approach, resulting in rain.

That's El Niño for you

[StormfanaticInd]

One thing I've noticed in the past several winters is when the long range models predict a torch they are almost always accurate 🙄🙄😆

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

One thing I've noticed in the past several winters is when the long range models predict a torch they are almost always accurate 🙄🙄😆

Exactly - I've said this as well and people act like I'm crazy. OK, maybe I am crazy but it's true. Torches are the one thing the models get right every time. 

[SnowloverSid]

3 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Exactly - I've said this as well and people act like I'm crazy. OK, maybe I am crazy but it's true. Torches are the one thing the models get right every time. 

Torches and Great Lakes Cutters: I used to live too far east to benefit from cutters— now I live too far west. The result is the same in St. Louis as it was in New York: rain. 

[1816]

30 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

One thing I've noticed in the past several winters is when the long range models predict a torch they are almost always accurate 🙄🙄😆

Especially at 45 day leads. It's crazy. 

[StretchCT]

I'll post this here since it's winter weather related, also in the educational section.

 

 

https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_1LHqaGGBS92vjWmTDAJdEw#/registration