Grace Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 (edited) I don't know whether this Mega -NAO is fools gold or not but it came out of nowhere & has taken over on the Euro & Canadian model pattern. If this is real & not model fools gold it could get interesting. Edited November 23, 2023 by Grace 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 19 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said: Euro has the MJO going into Phase 4 during the first part of December. My proclamation of November and the first half of December being "over" has proven to be accurate. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 (edited) Larry Cosgrove, retired met, seems to think Modoki: Quote This appears to be a west-based "Modoki: event taking shape, as waters near the Galapagos Islands are cooling. El Nino measures that are strongest in sectors 4 and 3.4 favor colder outcomes in the eastern two-thirds of North America. Edited November 23, 2023 by NEPAsnow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 On this day, I am thankful for being blessed with a 12z GFS long range fantasy run. Now I can eat my turkey with an extra smile in my heart. 😍 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 32 minutes ago, JDClapper said: On this day, I am thankful for being blessed with a 12z GFS long range fantasy run. Now I can eat my turkey with an extra smile in my heart. 😍 Only about 300 hours to go! 🤣 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 (edited) A lot of December forecast are getting ready to bust(in a good way) if this negative nao materializes. Edited November 23, 2023 by StormfanaticInd 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: So all I’m reading today is that it’s happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 (edited) On 11/23/2023 at 1:57 PM, Hassaywx1223 said: So all I’m reading today is that it’s happening From past experience it's definitely not certain yet but I'm starting to like our chances Edited November 25, 2023 by StormfanaticInd Not a good post😌 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 24 minutes ago, Hassaywx1223 said: So all I’m reading today is that it’s happening 12 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: From past experience it's definitely not certain yet but I'm starting to like our chances 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 -NAO right now does not mean we will not get warm. It simply means if jet stays active the warmth will be less warm. But what Eric was saying is that a -NAO in DEC bodes well statistically in El Ninos for stronger -NAO later. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 Today's weeklies. Keep in mind it's the weeklies & is not gospel. But this is welcomed for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 (edited) 👀👀. Edited November 24, 2023 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 BSR suggests something potentially brewing around DEC 11-13 time frame: Question is how much cold at that time. If there is enough cold watch out. 🤞 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 (edited) On 11/21/2023 at 9:23 PM, Grace said: Looking back through every El Nino at the first 20 days of NOV. The closest match is 2009. Not really anything else close. That's the closest. I don't put a lot of stock in this but I thought it was interesting nonetheless. To build on this. 2009 probably has about as much on common (Strong Nino, -QBO, -PDO, followed a La Nina) as any year although a little bit weaker of an El Nino. 1972 could used & is by some but the progression of the pattern is much closer to 2009 & really doesn't have a lot in common with 1972. Here's a progression of 2009, Nov through Dec. The one key piece we see is more blocking around Greenland in NOV, 2023 earlier than 2009. My point is as good as that winter was there were some pretty crappy periods as well. It really was not until the 2nd half of DEC some hope was brewing. So, all in all I think there's a lot of reason for optimism at this point for various reasons. Edited November 24, 2023 by Grace 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 24, 2023 Moderators Share Posted November 24, 2023 5 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: 👀👀. Don't blue checks have the ability to edit their tweets? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 24, 2023 Moderators Share Posted November 24, 2023 Not the strongest signals but -AO, -NAO and + PNA is one ingredient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 21 hours ago, Grace said: -NAO right now does not mean we will not get warm. It simply means if jet stays active the warmth will be less warm. But what Eric was saying is that a -NAO in DEC bodes well statistically in El Ninos for stronger -NAO later. Also have to start laying some snow down up north, or else any cold will be modified compared to what it could be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 9 hours ago, Hoosier said: Also have to start laying some snow down up north, or else any cold will be modified compared to what it could be. It's about normal for El Nino. Upper Midwest normally is below normal. But Canada is good right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 25, 2023 Admin Share Posted November 25, 2023 Anyone have an EPO forecast? It's been generally negative over the past month, but it looks to go positive for a little spell at least. Might be a moisture for cold trade-off at times as the Pacific doors open up. I know some folks have been awfully dry, so hopefully some help on that end. We've been constantly cool, but not wicked cold up here, with just brief warm spells interspersed during the cool -EPO regime. It's been enough to thicken my skin for working outside this winter. Ski areas can at least make snow, and did get a little natural stuff before Turkey Day, just gotta avoid the rain setting them back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 2 hours ago, MaineJay said: Anyone have an EPO forecast? It's been generally negative over the past month, but it looks to go positive for a little spell at least. Might be a moisture for cold trade-off at times as the Pacific doors open up. I know some folks have been awfully dry, so hopefully some help on that end. We've been constantly cool, but not wicked cold up here, with just brief warm spells interspersed during the cool -EPO regime. It's been enough to thicken my skin for working outside this winter. Ski areas can at least make snow, and did get a little natural stuff before Turkey Day, just gotta avoid the rain setting them back. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 2 hours ago, MaineJay said: Anyone have an EPO forecast? It's been generally negative over the past month, but it looks to go positive for a little spell at least. Might be a moisture for cold trade-off at times as the Pacific doors open up. I know some folks have been awfully dry, so hopefully some help on that end. We've been constantly cool, but not wicked cold up here, with just brief warm spells interspersed during the cool -EPO regime. It's been enough to thicken my skin for working outside this winter. Ski areas can at least make snow, and did get a little natural stuff before Turkey Day, just gotta avoid the rain setting them back. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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