Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[NEPAsnow]

[Ohiobuckeye45]

1 hour ago, NEPAsnow said:

Interesting 

[MaineJay]

8 hours ago, NEPAsnow said:

Not sure if you grabbed a wrong image, that's from a week ago.

Today's.

Daily, and even weekly SSTs in region 1+2 are extremely volatile.  While I agree that the far Eastern Pacific should cool with the surfacing of the upwelling portion of the kelvin wave, I still strongly believe the downwelling phase will surface just before Christmas.

Here you can see the increased Kevin wave activity recently in the Eastern Pacific.

30 day loop.

Here's a 3 month loop of 7 day anomaly changes. Note the way the Eastern Pacific "breathes" as Rossby waves propagate west, with alternating blobs of warming and cooling.

It's a very unique area with some of the strongest upwelling in the world (this is how penguins can survive at the equator).  

[MaineJay]

EPS seems pretty dry for the CONUS. Suggest a storm track just off the east coast.  

Seems like the -EPO is doing well to keep things cool, just not generating the storms we want. Hopefully it holds, and the Hudson Bay troffing is a "thing" this winter.

[Grace]

12 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

It really depends on a few things going forward. How quickly does the IOD fall from positive, while it is not the best for us to hold a positive IOD going into winter, how quickly it shuts down and warming sets up again around the eastern IO will be interesting to watch. This would change up movement for the MJO instead of skipping 2-4 as currently see.

Just how much further Nino 1+2 cool. Typically in this scenario with us getting near peak in 3.4 at this point waters usually continue to move further east in time before we surface cooler waters so we could see a spike in 1+2 especially but region 3 may see close to a double peak scenario (peaked in end of August early September at around 2.3C).

The one thing holding the forcing from being further east is the near record levels SST's still in Nino region 4, the other year to hold the record was 2015/16 which saw MJO activity increase as we moved through December into January and remained actually rather active as we moved into the rest of winter not sitting at 8-1-2. If I were to hope for something I would want a damn near null (circle of death) MJO progression regardless of the phase as this would keep things from wildly swinging especially as we push into January when we start to see typical cold pattern in an El Nino set up.

Lets see how things progress with this cold coming in for the end of the month into December. As of now not seeing any torchy aspect nor severely cold for December, but I am not liking the stratospheric polar vortex showing a large wave 1 response. This means the PV gets shoved over to Europe due to excessive ridging aloft (10-100mb) over the NE Pac/ Alaska region. This places the cold over Europe and Asia going forward which may render a warmer outcome as we get close to mid December. Still rather far in advance though so lets see what can come about.

 

Agree with all except SPV. Unless there's strong stratosphere & troposphere coupling it won't mean a ton. If there is strong coupling obviously it's significant. 

[beaver56]

3 hours ago, MaineJay said:

EPS seems pretty dry for the CONUS. Suggest a storm track just off the east coast.  

Seems like the -EPO is doing well to keep things cool, just not generating the storms we want. Hopefully it holds, and the Hudson Bay troffing is a "thing" this winter.

I can't get over how dry the last 16 months have been compared to normal in my area.  We really need some precip to help regulate water level in the rivers, lakes, ponds, streams, etc.

[SOMOSnow]

Not much to track, so I started a Winter storm threat thread for the Nov. 25-27 system for the Southern Plains, lower Midwest and Ohio Valley. I did mention that it may be edited to eliminate OV later. But some runs have brought the OV into play to some extent. 

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[StretchCT]

Euro weeklies from yesterday

[StretchCT]

Going back to last Monday, the week ending the 4th was a little different

[NEPAsnow]

Steve D

In the Summer, I suggested that this El Nino would shift from a strong east-based orientation in the sea surface temperature anomalies to a basin-wide orientation.  That forecast idea has officially been verified and will continue to shift, given the trends of the SSTA over the past two months.  The sub-surface anomalies support a continued gradual cooling in NINO 1+2 and warming in NINO 3.4.  Considering the sub-surface trends and evolution of this El Nino state, I expect NINO 4 to peak at around 1.8°C, NINO 3.4 to peak at 2.1°C, NINO 3 at 2.2°C, and NINO 1+2 to cool to 1.8°C through December and January.

Meanwhile, there have been no changes to the atmospheric response, with the SOI continuing to remain in a weak to moderate El Nino response and the location of the strongest tropical forcing and convective development around the dateline.  As a result, I expect we’ll continue to have this El Nino produce an MJO signal more frequently in phases 8,1 and 2 than in any other phases over the next three months.

So far, the forecast for this El Nino has evolved exactly as I had expected

Steve D

[NEPAsnow]

[StretchCT]

Found a nice tik tok on the snowiest towns in every state.  Some of these are mindblowing.

 

[Grace]

Euro Weeklies significantly show a weaker SPV

 

DEC 30-JAN 6

 

Weeklies progression

 

Paul Roundy's MJO Constructed analog progression

Edited November 22, 2023 by Grace

[Grace]

Looking back through every El Nino at the first 20 days of NOV. The closest match is 2009. Not really anything else close.

 

That's the closest. I don't put a lot of stock in this but I thought it was interesting nonetheless.

 

Edited November 22, 2023 by Grace

[StormfanaticInd]

The nao is going to play a key role in December

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[Grace]

It's NOV 22, so the CFS monthly forecast for DEC starts making its move. It's changed drastically since the 19th.

NOV 19

 

Today, NOV 22

 

You can't really read into what its showing today. For better or for worse it will change more these last 8 days....note trends. 

[Guest]

Euro has the MJO going into Phase 4 during the first part of December. My proclamation of November and the first half of December being "over" has proven to be accurate. 

Edited November 22, 2023 by HateWinterWarmth

[1816]

17 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Euro has the MJO going into Phase 4 during the first part of December. My proclamation of November and the first half of December being "over" has proven to be accurate. 

My calendar still shows 11/22??

 

I'm not a math major but that still leaves ...checking....23 days until November and the first half of December are over. 

You must mean you have a special proprietary model with a good track record at 20 days? Because the regular gfs Canadian Euro etc can't find their asshole with a mirror on a stick past 3 to 5 days. 

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, 1816 said:

My calendar still shows 11/22??

 

I'm not a math major but that still leaves ...checking....23 days until November and the first half of December are over. 

You must mean you have a special proprietary model with a good track record at 20 days? Because the regular gfs Canadian Euro etc can't find their asshole with a mirror on a stick past 3 to 5 days. 

Except when they're showing warmth. The only thing they get wrong when they show warmth is the magnitude of it. 

[Grace]

 

 

[TheComet]

2 hours ago, Grace said:

 

 

I began following Eric Webb on Twitter this Fall. He seems like a level headed guy who doesn't hype things, so when he Tweets I pay attention.

[Grace]

1 hour ago, TheComet said:

I began following Eric Webb on Twitter this Fall. He seems like a level headed guy who doesn't hype things, so when he Tweets I pay attention.

 

Eric is brilliant met but he does like to troll winter lovers for fun. 

[StormfanaticInd]

Solid negative NAO signal developing on the models which could make things more interesting 🤔 OF course I am proceeding with extreme caution ⚠️ 

Edited November 23, 2023 by StormfanaticInd

[1816]

I get the not wanting to jinx it thing and the caution. But I'm going to go ahead and say it. We've all been looking at analogs, solar cycles, qbo, volcanism, correlations, etc etc etc. For months now. Trying to guess extremely long range forecasts. And after reading this stuff for weeks I for one find it not one bit surprising to see a -NAO incoming. I expect to see it a fair amount this winter.