Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Ingyball]

Hey everyone! It's been a while. I've been pretty busy the last few months on top of trying to improve my work/life balance, which means less meteorology at home. I also accepted a position at NWS Guam and will be moving there in January! Planning for a move of course takes up more of my free time lol.

Anyways, with a potential cold blast on its way after Thanksgiving I thought I'd share some thoughts. For the cold late next week, the teleconnections are hinting towards exactly what I would want. The EPO and WPO are both negative while all the other indices are near neutral. That setup typically favors cold funneling down the Plains before spilling eastward. The 12z Canadian shows a secondary shot of cold air towards the end of the run, which is where those further east could cash in. 

 

As for the rest of winter, I do think the progression of this ENSO event as well as the ocean temperatures outside of the region will all impact this winter. As of now, the progression of the current El Nino appears to be closer to 1982-83 then say 1991-92. The 1982 events started off as an East based event and shifted westward like we're currently seeing now. The 1991 event started west based and shifted eastward, which isn't what we're seeing. 1997-98 was closer to 1982 than 1991. 2015-16 is difficult to use as an analog due to the weak El Nino that was in place the year before, it didn't develop like most El Nino events have in the past. I'd lean towards impacts closer to 1982-83 and 1997-98 than 1991-92 or 2015-16. However, what could throw a wrench in this is how warm the background SSTs are across the world. 

Here are the global SSTAs for around the same time as the current ENSO event. The closest match to our current ENSO event if you look at latitudes between 40S and 40N 2015-16 is probably the best match. However, there's a pretty significant difference between the SSTAs near 60N in the North Atlantic with 2015-16 being quite cool while our current event is warm. In this case 1997, 2002, and 2009 are closer matches. I do think this is an important feature and could be what helps assist in SSW events along with the easterly QBO as well. 

[StretchCT]

Been dry lately, most of the country actually.  So far this month 0.46" imby. 

 

 

 2009 also was dry in November

Not much expected through the end of the month either, at least not enough to get most places to normal

Edited November 18, 2023 by StretchCT

[beaver56]

33 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Been dry lately, most of the country actually.  So far this month 0.46" imby. 

 

 

 2009 also was dry in November

Not much expected through the end of the month either, at least not enough to get most places to normal

Been dry for our area since late last summer with the exception of a few stretches. 

Edited November 18, 2023 by beaver56

[1816]

1 hour ago, Ingyball said:

Hey everyone! It's been a while. I've been pretty busy the last few months on top of trying to improve my work/life balance, which means less meteorology at home. I also accepted a position at NWS Guam and will be moving there in January! Planning for a move of course takes up more of my free time lol.

Anyways, with a potential cold blast on its way after Thanksgiving I thought I'd share some thoughts. For the cold late next week, the teleconnections are hinting towards exactly what I would want. The EPO and WPO are both negative while all the other indices are near neutral. That setup typically favors cold funneling down the Plains before spilling eastward. The 12z Canadian shows a secondary shot of cold air towards the end of the run, which is where those further east could cash in. 

 

As for the rest of winter, I do think the progression of this ENSO event as well as the ocean temperatures outside of the region will all impact this winter. As of now, the progression of the current El Nino appears to be closer to 1982-83 then say 1991-92. The 1982 events started off as an East based event and shifted westward like we're currently seeing now. The 1991 event started west based and shifted eastward, which isn't what we're seeing. 1997-98 was closer to 1982 than 1991. 2015-16 is difficult to use as an analog due to the weak El Nino that was in place the year before, it didn't develop like most El Nino events have in the past. I'd lean towards impacts closer to 1982-83 and 1997-98 than 1991-92 or 2015-16. However, what could throw a wrench in this is how warm the background SSTs are across the world. 

Here are the global SSTAs for around the same time as the current ENSO event. The closest match to our current ENSO event if you look at latitudes between 40S and 40N 2015-16 is probably the best match. However, there's a pretty significant difference between the SSTAs near 60N in the North Atlantic with 2015-16 being quite cool while our current event is warm. In this case 1997, 2002, and 2009 are closer matches. I do think this is an important feature and could be what helps assist in SSW events along with the easterly QBO as well. 

I imagine moving to Guam is about as complicated of a move you can make for nws. Except maybe northern Alaska or something. 

 

Good luck!

[so_whats_happening]

19 hours ago, Ingyball said:

Hey everyone! It's been a while. I've been pretty busy the last few months on top of trying to improve my work/life balance, which means less meteorology at home. I also accepted a position at NWS Guam and will be moving there in January! Planning for a move of course takes up more of my free time lol.

Anyways, with a potential cold blast on its way after Thanksgiving I thought I'd share some thoughts. For the cold late next week, the teleconnections are hinting towards exactly what I would want. The EPO and WPO are both negative while all the other indices are near neutral. That setup typically favors cold funneling down the Plains before spilling eastward. The 12z Canadian shows a secondary shot of cold air towards the end of the run, which is where those further east could cash in. 

 

As for the rest of winter, I do think the progression of this ENSO event as well as the ocean temperatures outside of the region will all impact this winter. As of now, the progression of the current El Nino appears to be closer to 1982-83 then say 1991-92. The 1982 events started off as an East based event and shifted westward like we're currently seeing now. The 1991 event started west based and shifted eastward, which isn't what we're seeing. 1997-98 was closer to 1982 than 1991. 2015-16 is difficult to use as an analog due to the weak El Nino that was in place the year before, it didn't develop like most El Nino events have in the past. I'd lean towards impacts closer to 1982-83 and 1997-98 than 1991-92 or 2015-16. However, what could throw a wrench in this is how warm the background SSTs are across the world. 

Here are the global SSTAs for around the same time as the current ENSO event. The closest match to our current ENSO event if you look at latitudes between 40S and 40N 2015-16 is probably the best match. However, there's a pretty significant difference between the SSTAs near 60N in the North Atlantic with 2015-16 being quite cool while our current event is warm. In this case 1997, 2002, and 2009 are closer matches. I do think this is an important feature and could be what helps assist in SSW events along with the easterly QBO as well. 

Congrats on the new job! Boy that is going to be some experience with those typhoons.

[Grace]

JMA still going with a big lower OV winter storm on 29th. 

 

Do I believe it? I don't believe any model about anything outside of 5-7 days. 

[cperry29]

38 minutes ago, Grace said:

JMA still going with a big lower OV winter storm on 29th. 

 

Do I believe it? I don't believe any model about anything outside of 5-7 days. 

I’d argue 7 days is a stretch 🥴😂

[Mulaman984]

1 hour ago, Grace said:

JMA still going with a big lower OV winter storm on 29th. 

 

Do I believe it? I don't believe any model about anything outside of 5-7 days. 

 

[Grace]

44 minutes ago, Mulaman984 said:

 

 

The GEM ensemble mean supports some type of wintry event:

 

[SOMOSnow]

12z Euro ensemble mean -- like the 12z Canadian ensemble  mean -- also has a better signal for a Winter system late next weekend into the next week than the GEFS.

Edited November 19, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[SOMOSnow]

12z UKMET trying to do something. This is through end of run (Saturday, 6AM.)

Edited November 19, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[Mulaman984]

 

Edited November 20, 2023 by Mulaman984

[SOMOSnow]

12z ICON trying to get something going in Central/Ohio Valley Saturday to Monday. 

Edited November 20, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[SOMOSnow]

12z Canadian also trying to do something Saturday to Monday... 

[SOMOSnow]

Edited November 20, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[NEPAsnow]

My feeling is that the mjo is going to stay in 7-8-1 most of the winter with all this convection around the dateline, with many snowfall chances from late November into mid Dec. The PV is getting disrupted and will be focused around Hudson Bay which will send cold shots into the northeast with below avg temps. I don’t see any torching due to the mjo staying in favorable phases in December.

[SOMOSnow]

16 minutes ago, NEPAsnow said:

My feeling is that the mjo is going to stay in 7-8-1 most of the winter with all this convection around the dateline, with many snowfall chances from late November into mid Dec. The PV is getting disrupted and will be focused around Hudson Bay which will send cold shots into the northeast with below avg temps. I don’t see any torching due to the mjo staying in favorable phases in December.

7-8-1 most of Winter would be phenomenal. 

[SOMOSnow]

[Guest]

1 hour ago, NEPAsnow said:

My feeling is that the mjo is going to stay in 7-8-1 most of the winter with all this convection around the dateline, with many snowfall chances from late November into mid Dec. The PV is getting disrupted and will be focused around Hudson Bay which will send cold shots into the northeast with below avg temps. I don’t see any torching due to the mjo staying in favorable phases in December.

So in other words, an absolutely perfect winter scenario? 

[Hoosier]

On 11/17/2023 at 10:31 AM, Cary67 said:

Can't argue this assessment of how winter may unfold. ORD Met stated since 1950 only one winter(2009-10) had above average snowfall during a moderate to strong El Nino event for the LOT area. Could be disappointing in light of ORDs 20.1" seasonal total last year

Another snowy one prior to 1950 was 1925-26, which is regarded as a strong Nino.  But yeah, this Nino strength typically is not too good for Chicago.

[SOMOSnow]

Latest long range forecasts re: surface temps. 

Top: 32 day Canadian

2nd: 30 day CFS

3rd: 32 day Euro

4th: 30 day GFS

Edited November 20, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[NEPAsnow]

2 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

So in other words, an absolutely perfect winter scenario? 

I'm not saying there won't be times of milder weather, but I don't think we torch. If that convection stays around the dateline, the MJO phases of 7-8-1 will happen. 

It has been there for the past 3-4 months and is forecasted by many to stay in those phases.

If it does go into 2,3,4 it will be very weak I think.

Tropical forcing has been west and this El Nino is now basin-wide or central based which is better for the northeast IMO.

Saw this on EPAWA Weather weeklies as well

 

https://youtu.be/_SbFikCSv1k?t=7

 

Edited November 20, 2023 by NEPAsnow

[NEPAsnow]

 

[Grace]

December will not be a torch but it will not be extremely cold either. Warmish periods with cool Downs. Warmest period will be mid December, probably the week before Christmas. Right after Christmas into January looks like it could get really cold.

This is supported by Paul Roundy's MJO constructed analogs, today's Euro weeklies, & my analogs. 

The El Nino strengthening is actually a good thing as long as it's not bonkers, & it does not look to be. This helps fight against a little Nina atmospheric hang-over from time to time. 

Firmly believe JAN & FEB with be the best winter period we've had since 2015 & 2018!! 

Let's roll

Edited November 21, 2023 by Grace

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, NEPAsnow said:

I'm not saying there won't be times of milder weather, but I don't think we torch. If that convection stays around the dateline, the MJO phases of 7-8-1 will happen. 

It has been there for the past 3-4 months and is forecasted by many to stay in those phases.

If it does go into 2,3,4 it will be very weak I think.

Tropical forcing has been west and this El Nino is now basin-wide or central based which is better for the northeast IMO.

Saw this on EPAWA Weather weeklies as well

 

https://youtu.be/_SbFikCSv1k?t=7

 

It really depends on a few things going forward. How quickly does the IOD fall from positive, while it is not the best for us to hold a positive IOD going into winter, how quickly it shuts down and warming sets up again around the eastern IO will be interesting to watch. This would change up movement for the MJO instead of skipping 2-4 as currently see.

Just how much further Nino 1+2 cool. Typically in this scenario with us getting near peak in 3.4 at this point waters usually continue to move further east in time before we surface cooler waters so we could see a spike in 1+2 especially but region 3 may see close to a double peak scenario (peaked in end of August early September at around 2.3C).

The one thing holding the forcing from being further east is the near record levels SST's still in Nino region 4, the other year to hold the record was 2015/16 which saw MJO activity increase as we moved through December into January and remained actually rather active as we moved into the rest of winter not sitting at 8-1-2. If I were to hope for something I would want a damn near null (circle of death) MJO progression regardless of the phase as this would keep things from wildly swinging especially as we push into January when we start to see typical cold pattern in an El Nino set up.

Lets see how things progress with this cold coming in for the end of the month into December. As of now not seeing any torchy aspect nor severely cold for December, but I am not liking the stratospheric polar vortex showing a large wave 1 response. This means the PV gets shoved over to Europe due to excessive ridging aloft (10-100mb) over the NE Pac/ Alaska region. This places the cold over Europe and Asia going forward which may render a warmer outcome as we get close to mid December. Still rather far in advance though so lets see what can come about.