Ohiobuckeye45 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, JDClapper said: Eek, at a glace several of those awesome AK Novembers didnt bode well for snow here ib PA. 94-95, 11-12 stick out real quick and they are #1 & #3. 3 hours ago, Cary67 said: Generally tend to think the colder and snowier Alaska is the lamer our winter will be. Yeah im with you both but depends on HOW It happened too, gauging by the torchy November in the east I presume there's been constant troughing that way leading to our never ending ridge I know there were also some cyclone impacts which are anomalies Edited November 17, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: On that note I am giving zero credibility to medium and long range from here on out. Not about to play this game this winter🙄 Every winter anymore! I don't understand why model performance drops so drastically in the winter months. It's sooooo annoying! This is 2023 for goodness sake! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 3 hours ago, JDClapper said: Eek, at a glace several of those awesome AK Novembers didnt bode well for snow here ib PA. 94-95, 11-12 stick out real quick and they are #1 & #3. But there's some good years on there as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Smh 🤣🤣 What's the laugh for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Just now, SOMOSnow said: What's the laugh for? I think he is referring to many thinking cooler temps where on the books for this time frame for the last several days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 despite the run to run variability as we go on watch for "kicking the can down the road", 6-10 day ensembles seem to be in decent agreement 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted November 17, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted November 17, 2023 (edited) Guess we are going to play this fun game this winter. I will add this is the most El NIno like atmosphere I feel we have seen thus far. Edited November 17, 2023 by so_whats_happening 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Guess we are going to play this fun game this winter. I will add this is the most El NIno like atmosphere I feel we have seen thus far. The ole, pay attention to models 3 days away from a specific date 😜 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 (edited) 23 hours ago, Hoosier said: Here's my final winter call for Chicago (ORD)... Temps (DJF): 0 to +1 Snowfall (total): 28-35" Bonus prediction: 2 to 5 days below zero Main change from my initial thought was to go colder. I don't think that this Nino will reach +2.0 on the ONI, but even if it somehow does, it's not like the super Ninos of 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16 and so I cautiously lean away from those kind of torchy analogs. Even though my call is for not too far from average temps, I believe that it will be a winter of pretty big fluctuations that will more or less cancel out. Out of DJF, my guess would be that December is the month that comes in warmest relative to average but I don't have a strong feeling on that one way or another. Obviously when it comes to seasonal outlooks, there's typically going to be bust potential in both directions since you put forth the scenario that you feel is most reasonable. So, a warmer, colder, snowier, or less snowy outcome is all possible and nothing would really shock me. This winter has some rather unique forecasting challenges and it will be interesting to watch things unfold. Can't argue this assessment of how winter may unfold. ORD Met stated since 1950 only one winter(2009-10) had above average snowfall during a moderate to strong El Nino event for the LOT area. Could be disappointing in light of ORDs 20.1" seasonal total last year Edited November 17, 2023 by Cary67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 6 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: On that note I am giving zero credibility to medium and long range from here on out. Not about to play this game this winter🙄 If it shows warmth long term, believe it. If it shows cold, don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 16 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: If it shows warmth long term, believe it. If it shows cold, don't. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 33 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: If it shows warmth long term, believe it. If it shows cold, don't. 😂😂😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 29 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said: 😂😂😂 In all seriousness though, I wonder what changed so drastically? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 These models have become utterly useless in the winter. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 1 hour ago, HateWinterWarmth said: In all seriousness though, I wonder what changed so drastically? What am I missing? What changed drastically? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 1 minute ago, SNOWBOB11 said: What am I missing? What changed drastically? The cold vanishes altogether on the past 2 GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 1 hour ago, HateWinterWarmth said: In all seriousness though, I wonder what changed so drastically? Not sure. Good question. Let's watch and wait and see if it's an anomaly or if it corrects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 18 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: The cold vanishes altogether on the past 2 GFS runs. It’s a bit more muted and not as far south but euro still has the cold building. Might just be a slower progression of the cold air. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 31 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said: It’s a bit more muted and not as far south but euro still has the cold building. Might just be a slower progression of the cold air. Yea, Euro still has some type of winter system brewing as it ends on NOV 27: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Grace said: Yea, Euro still has some type of winter system brewing as it ends on NOV 27: FWIW, the 12z EPS looks good. Certainly ensembles seeing snow somewhere: Here's the control run: Lol, there's some really good ensembles. Several producing big snow. Take it with a grain of salt as of now. Edited November 17, 2023 by Grace 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 (edited) Main runs of 12z Canadian, 12z Euro and 18z GFS day 5-10 temps.... Edited November 18, 2023 by SOMOSnow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 And latest 5-10 ensemble 2m temps. 12z Canadian, 12z Euro and 12z Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Latest 6 to 10 day from NOAA: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 2 hours ago, SOMOSnow said: And latest 5-10 ensemble 2m temps. 12z Canadian, 12z Euro and 12z Euro. So GFS is the outlier. Good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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