Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[JDClapper]

Welp, that's a wrap.

[Grace]

I haven't seen this posted. A lot of good info here in this thread. 

 

Edited November 16, 2023 by Grace

[Grace]

The NOV 28-29 system has a real shot at being an OV winter storm. It's still a little far out but watching East Asia. 

 

[StormfanaticInd]

There could be 2 winter storms next week

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[MaineJay]

47 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

 

Am I missing something, aren't these areas generally already snow covered this time of year?

[Indygirl]

9 hours ago, Grace said:

The NOV 28-29 system has a real shot at being an OV winter storm. It's still a little far out but watching East Asia. 

 

The online social media groups are really talking this system up for next week. 
Bamwx, Indiana Weather Online, etc. 

 

[Hoosier]

Here's my final winter call for Chicago (ORD)...

Temps (DJF):  0 to +1

Snowfall (total):  28-35"

Bonus prediction:  2 to 5 days below zero

 

Main change from my initial thought was to go colder.  I don't think that this Nino will reach +2.0 on the ONI, but even if it somehow does, it's not like the super Ninos of 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16 and so I cautiously lean away from those kind of torchy analogs. Even though my call is for not too far from average temps, I believe that it will be a winter of pretty big fluctuations that will more or less cancel out.  Out of DJF, my guess would be that December is the month that comes in warmest relative to average but I don't have a strong feeling on that one way or another.  

Obviously when it comes to seasonal outlooks, there's typically going to be bust potential in both directions since you put forth the scenario that you feel is most reasonable.  So, a warmer, colder, snowier, or less snowy outcome is all possible and nothing would really shock me.  This winter has some rather unique forecasting challenges and it will be interesting to watch things unfold.

[RobB]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Here's my final winter call for Chicago (ORD)...

Temps (DJF):  0 to +1

Snowfall (total):  28-35"

Bonus prediction:  2 to 5 days below zero

 

Main change from my initial thought was to go colder.  I don't think that this Nino will reach +2.0 on the ONI, but even if it somehow does, it's not like the super Ninos of 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16 and so I cautiously lean away from those kind of torchy analogs. Even though my call is for not too far from average temps, I believe that it will be a winter of pretty big fluctuations that will more or less cancel out.  Out of DJF, my guess would be that December is the month that comes in warmest relative to average but I don't have a strong feeling on that one way or another.  

Obviously when it comes to seasonal outlooks, there's typically going to be bust potential in both directions since you put forth the scenario that you feel is most reasonable.  So, a warmer, colder, snowier, or less snowy outcome is all possible and nothing would really shock me.  This winter has some rather unique forecasting challenges and it will be interesting to watch things unfold.

Good luck!

[Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, RobB said:

Good luck!

Thanks.  Probably gonna need it lol

I was really tempted to actually go colder than average for Chicago, but just couldn't do it.   

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[StretchCT]

Today's stab at the future.  Has anyone ever verified these (to the extent they can verify them).  If not, and if someone knows of an archive I'm curious enough to go back 20-30 years and see how often they pan out.

 

edit:  oh I found the verification page. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools/briefing/seas_veri.grid.php

Edited November 16, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Here's what I found so far on CPC verification for Dec/Jan/Feb Temps

		Heidke method
Year	non equal chances	All forecasts	%not equal chance
1995	31.2	17.89	57.33
1996	60	19.4	32.33
1997	79.07	43.97	55.6
1998	89.11	47.63	53.45
1999	84.38	52.37	62.07
2000	-37.2	-13.15	35.34
2001	-18.06	-12.07	66.81
2002	9	5.82	64.66
2003	-25.21	-13.14	52.16
2004	27.17	16.16	59.48
2005	76.92	56.03	72.84
2006	22.48	14.44	64.22
2007	12.98	10.13	78.02
2008	19.7	8.41	42.67
2009	14.79	10.78	72.84
2010	-16.79	-9.48	56.47
2011	22.41	14.01	62.5
2012	-17.14	-7.76	45.26
2013	5.06	1.72	35.05
2014	63.57	38.36	60.34
2015	62.73	44.61	71.12
2016	45.81	30.6	66.81
2017	35.84	25.65	71.55
2018	-38	-24.57	64.66
2019	67.55	44.61	65.95
2020	-23.18	-17.89	77.16
2021	21.81	17.67	81.03
2022	38.98	29.74	76.29
Average	25.535	16.141

Year is the December year.  CPC uses January.  

CPC uses the Heidke skill score, which is a measure of how well a forecast did relative to a randomly selected forecast. A score of 0 means that the forecast did no better than what would be expected by chance. A score of 100 depicts a "perfect" forecast and a score of -50 depicts the "worst possible" forecast.

Here are some sample results - best, good, mediocre and bad

 

Edited November 16, 2023 by StretchCT

[Pghsnow]

[TheComet]

On 11/15/2023 at 7:25 PM, JDClapper said:

Welp, that's a wrap.

Lemme guess, start of "winter" will soon get pushed to January for mid-atlantic (I.e. NEPA)? 

[JDClapper]

3 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Here's what I found so far on CPC verification for Dec/Jan/Feb Temps

		Heidke method
Year	non equal chances	All forecasts	%not equal chance
1995	31.2	17.89	57.33
1996	60	19.4	32.33
1997	79.07	43.97	55.6
1998	89.11	47.63	53.45
1999	84.38	52.37	62.07
2000	-37.2	-13.15	35.34
2001	-18.06	-12.07	66.81
2002	9	5.82	64.66
2003	-25.21	-13.14	52.16
2004	27.17	16.16	59.48
2005	76.92	56.03	72.84
2006	22.48	14.44	64.22
2007	12.98	10.13	78.02
2008	19.7	8.41	42.67
2009	14.79	10.78	72.84
2010	-16.79	-9.48	56.47
2011	22.41	14.01	62.5
2012	-17.14	-7.76	45.26
2013	5.06	1.72	35.05
2014	63.57	38.36	60.34
2015	62.73	44.61	71.12
2016	45.81	30.6	66.81
2017	35.84	25.65	71.55
2018	-38	-24.57	64.66
2019	67.55	44.61	65.95
2020	-23.18	-17.89	77.16
2021	21.81	17.67	81.03
2022	38.98	29.74	76.29
Average	25.535	16.141

Year is the December year.  CPC uses January.  

CPC uses the Heidke skill score, which is a measure of how well a forecast did relative to a randomly selected forecast. A score of 0 means that the forecast did no better than what would be expected by chance. A score of 100 depicts a "perfect" forecast and a score of -50 depicts the "worst possible" forecast.

Here are some sample results - best, good, mediocre and bad

 

10 out of 28 years were under a score of 10. So, they are sitting in that 66ish% decent-good stuff scores.

They had a really rough go in the early 2000s, what was that about?? 😵‍💫

Edited November 17, 2023 by JDClapper

[StretchCT]

Just now, JDClapper said:

They had a really rough go in the early 2000s, what was that about??

Yeah, I started with the earlier years and then hit this rough patch and I was starting to really question why we follow these forecasts. 

I looked at it a different way though.  The average for the entire CONUS was 16, which given 100 is perfect and 0 is 50/50 chance of being right, was just above blindfolded throwing at a dartboard. 

My threshold is more like 20 being of any value, and they scored over that for all areas 10 years.  But they were only worse than a dartboard 7 years. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[SnowloverSid]

4 hours ago, Pghsnow said:

Wow— where I used to live is in the bull’s eye. The area will likely move in and out of said bull’s eye a dozen times in the next dozen days. LOL.

[StormfanaticInd]

🥶 ❄️ 

[StormfanaticInd]

Getting pretty close to a fully phased storm on the gfs for the first storm next week. 👀

Edited November 17, 2023 by StormfanaticInd

[StormfanaticInd]

Smh 🤣🤣

[StormfanaticInd]

On that note I am giving zero credibility to medium and long range from here on out. Not about to play this game this winter🙄

[JDClapper]

8 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Eek, at a glace several of those awesome AK Novembers didnt bode well for snow here ib PA.  94-95, 11-12 stick out real quick and they are #1 & #3.

[Cary67]

9 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Generally tend to think the colder and snowier Alaska is the lamer our winter will be.