SOMOSnow Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 (edited) I'm noticing that model data from each run (such as GFS, Euro, ICON Canadian etc) is coming in quicker this Winter (at least on weatherbell) than it has in any other year and that's a big plus! Edited November 15, 2023 by SOMOSnow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 29 minutes ago, Grace said: Normally in my experience when the end of November shifts this hard it can be a very good sign 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Normally in my experience when the end of November shifts this hard it can be a very good sign The 2019 mid to late November cold outbreak was a curse that gives me chills to this day, lesson learned history is not a predictor of future lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 4 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Normally in my experience when the end of November shifts this hard it can be a very good sign 48 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: The 2019 mid to late November cold outbreak was a curse that gives me chills to this day, lesson learned history is not a predictor of future lol What I seem to remember is when the models do a 180 like this, it seems to keep happening a lot. I've seen it go both ways. The same way you can kick the can on cold coming and it just stays warm, you can also kick the can on the warmth and have it stay cold. This feels like a good sign to me hopefully. I'm sure there will be warm periods this winter but if the cold keeps winning out people gonna be happy. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 Does anyone have the BSR/EAR overlay handy? I'm curious what it shows for this trough: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 16 minutes ago, 1816 said: What I seem to remember is when the models do a 180 like this, it seems to keep happening a lot. I've seen it go both ways. The same way you can kick the can on cold coming and it just stays warm, you can also kick the can on the warmth and have it stay cold. This feels like a good sign to me hopefully. I'm sure there will be warm periods this winter but if the cold keeps winning out people gonna be happy. More often than not it is a good sign I believe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 1 hour ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: The 2019 mid to late November cold outbreak was a curse that gives me chills to this day, lesson learned history is not a predictor of future lol Yeah that was brutal lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 5 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Normally in my experience when the end of November shifts this hard it can be a very good sign I hope your correct. I just don't trust the models with anything. Even year as we get into winter months they are a joke past 7 days out. I don't get it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 2 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said: Does anyone have the BSR/EAR overlay handy? I'm curious what it shows for this trough: Don't have overlay on East Asia but Seoul, South Korea correlates to Paducah, ky if that helps. So that would be a trough running SW from the SE to the NE & a NW Pac ridge. BSR has the Bering Sea correlation, but looking at the same 6-10 window that would correlate with EAR, the BSR has this: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 Quite an interesting article. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/deepmind-ai-can-beat-the-best-weather-forecasts-but-there-is-a-catch/ar-AA1jUOju 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 1 hour ago, SOMOSnow said: I'd be cautious using those from Tropical Tidbits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 1 hour ago, RobB said: Quite an interesting article. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/deepmind-ai-can-beat-the-best-weather-forecasts-but-there-is-a-catch/ar-AA1jUOju Indeed! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, Grace said: I'd be cautious using those from Tropical Tidbits. I just grabbed the tweet but thanks my friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 JAMSTEC Updated. Remember,no 500mb maps. Looks warm & dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 16 minutes ago, Grace said: JAMSTEC Updated. Remember,no 500mb maps. Looks warm & dry JMA was phenomenal, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 26 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said: JMA was phenomenal, though. JMA & Euro were both very solid! Cansips was not terrible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 15, 2023 Moderators Share Posted November 15, 2023 (edited) On 11/14/2023 at 6:07 AM, MaineJay said: . It's it the anomaly gradient that matters? Or the raw SST. Absent a TC, free convection over the tropical oceans begins at about 26-26.5°C. So it begs the question, does that 26.5° isotherm matter more than the +0.5°C anomaly isopleth? What about the gradient between the ENSO region and the rest of the surrounding Pacific? Does that come into play? If it the surrounding areas are warmer by 0.5C, and to be Nino the ENSO has to be 0.5C anomaly, is it the same as if the surrounding areas were cooler by 0.5C and the ENSO region is warmer than normal by 0.5C. Edited November 15, 2023 by StretchCT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 IRI Updated OCT Updated to compare Very similar but with less warmth in south central Canada. Just a small shade warmer in east CONUS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 Emergence of strong blocking developing on the 12z so far with GFS & CMC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 (edited) Top: latest 46 day Euro Weeklies (2m temps.) Second: latest 46 day Euro control run. Control is very cold. Third: latest 45 day CFS. Fourth: latest 32 day Canadian. Fifth: latest 35 day GEFS. Sixth; latest 45 day CFS control. ALL SHOW A COLD EAST. And keep in mind, that's factoring another few days of warmth in Central etc. Edited November 15, 2023 by SOMOSnow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 ♥️ Latest CFS Control monthlies. Lock it in. 🏷 Dec, Jan, Feb and March (from top to bottom.) 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 2 hours ago, SOMOSnow said: ♥️ Latest CFS Control monthlies. Lock it in. 🏷 Dec, Jan, Feb and March (from top to bottom.) Man February is even giving us a thumbs up while wearing a mitten. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 (edited) 8 hours ago, Grace said: I hope your correct. I just don't trust the models with anything. Even year as we get into winter months they are a joke past 7 days out. I don't get it. 😄 sometimes not even 7 Edited November 15, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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