Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Central Illinois]

1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

A very cold look also

This would be a good start.

[1816]

28 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Accuweather is on the "record breaking El Niño" train:

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/el-nino-intensifies-what-does-it-mean-for-the-us-this-winter/1594936?fbclid=IwAR0_Ls6YEirxRkErudfsbxDKUBfODZP2d1bVv73ut3O0svLoutqPRlu-wCo

 

I'm pretty sure the only thing that's going to be record breaking about this el Nino is the record breaking amount of controversy and discussion around it.  We get a Nino or a Nina every year just about and its always going to be one of the biggest things to talk about for seasonal forecasting. But I dont know if I've ever seen this much back and forth and speculation and argument and for some even an emotional investment in the level of warmth attained. It's a fascinating circus. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

40 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Accuweather is on the "record breaking El Niño" train:

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/el-nino-intensifies-what-does-it-mean-for-the-us-this-winter/1594936?fbclid=IwAR0_Ls6YEirxRkErudfsbxDKUBfODZP2d1bVv73ut3O0svLoutqPRlu-wCo

 

Well the last 4 years of "non el nino" have debatably sucked, so if we're going to go down again in 23'-24', it might as well be trying something new. I'm along for the ride to try

Edited November 13, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Mulaman984]

 

[TLChip]

All the east coasters know, one big storm during a nino…can give you your “average” snowfall. Just need the right ingredients at the right time. 

1996- 36” IMBY

2003 - 20+” IMBY

2016 - 30” IMBY

2021 - 25” IMBY not nino? Was a good February I remember lots of sledding.

Models already teasing us. 

[Grace]

26 minutes ago, Mulaman984 said:

 

 

This entire El Nino is just weird. This winter could be weird 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

1 hour ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Well the last 4 years of "non el nino" have debatably sucked, so if we're going to go down again in 23'-24', it might as well be trying something new. I'm along for the ride to try

 

1 hour ago, Grace said:

 

This entire El Nino is just weird. This winter could be weird 

I'll take weird, although I would also put last year in the weird category. Record SHATTERING cold for a week in late December that basically bottomed out so many atmospheric indices that it completely flipped the pattern for the next 2 months. 

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, 1816 said:

I'm pretty sure the only thing that's going to be record breaking about this el Nino is the record breaking amount of controversy and discussion around it.  We get a Nino or a Nina every year just about and its always going to be one of the biggest things to talk about for seasonal forecasting. But I dont know if I've ever seen this much back and forth and speculation and argument and for some even an emotional investment in the level of warmth attained. It's a fascinating circus. 

The biggest issue with it all seems to be there are many folks talking about certainties with this event. There is a lot of contrasting that has been around most of the year. So we did manage +IOD which is rightfully another part of the El Nino state (doesn't always happen but gets enhanced by the El Nino), the PDO is rather negative but a weakly positive look along the west coast. SOI has been negative but on the levels more so of a moderate event. The forcing mechanism is further east out of the typical Maritime continent region but has been held west with some tentacle like reach across western 3.4 which is more indicative of a moderate low end strong event.

If we are looking at specifically SST anomalies though there was an impressive rise in 1+2 and 3 early on some pretty close to if not setting records in spring. 3.4 warmed rather drastically in 2 episodes primed by the March event, warming in June and August. We are currently sitting at 1.8C across 3.4 which is indicative on the SST scale of nearing super strength so that is the issue I and many others are having. While the overall SST's are warm there is not consistent strong/super type atmospheric modes you would expect from SST's that warm. They seem to be happening in waves where you get a 2-3 week period of -PDO pattern to then get 2-3 weeks of Strong/super El Nino pattern but neither seems to stick around long. 

Going forward we need consistent WWB events to finish out the year to maintain this ENSO state because as soon as we get an increase in trades and 'reloading' if you will before the next WWB tries to move through we drop SST's and stabilize lower than the peak. Some have said we do not need consistent WWB events to maintain SST's and that the Kelvin Wave alone produced by these events will keep things stable and warm and in fact cause even more warming. 

I do agree though some take this rather personal for some reason, it is just weather. I am not a big fan of people piggy-backing off of others ideas though and I feel like that is what the twitter/x community is anymore, but hey people love that type of stuff so.

So I am hoping for one solid foot snowfall and ill call it a year! Anything above that is bonus for me at this point. I personally do not want that much as living in the city is a pain with all that snow.

Edited November 13, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[1816]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

The biggest issue with it all seems to be there are many folks talking about certainties with this event. There is a lot of contrasting that has been around most of the year. So we did manage +IOD which is rightfully another part of the El Nino state (doesn't always happen but gets enhanced by the El Nino), the PDO is rather negative but a weakly positive look along the west coast. SOI has been negative but on the levels more so of a moderate event. The forcing mechanism is further east out of the typical Maritime continent region but has been held west with some tentacle like reach across western 3.4 which is more indicative of a moderate low end strong event.

If we are looking at specifically SST anomalies though there was an impressive rise in 1+2 and 3 early on some pretty close to if not setting records in spring. 3.4 warmed rather drastically in 2 episodes primed by the March event, warming in June and August. We are currently sitting at 1.8C across 3.4 which is indicative on the SST scale of nearing super strength so that is the issue I and many others are having. While the overall SST's are warm there is not consistent strong/super type atmospheric modes you would expect from SST's that warm. They seem to be happening in waves where you get a 2-3 week period of -PDO pattern to then get 2-3 weeks of Strong/super El Nino pattern but neither seems to stick around long. 

Going forward we need consistent WWB events to finish out the year to maintain this ENSO state because as soon as we get an increase in trades and 'reloading' if you will before the next WWB tries to move through we drop SST's and stabilize lower than the peak. Some have said we do not need consistent WWB events to maintain SST's and that the Kelvin Wave alone produced by these events will keep things stable and warm and in fact cause even more warming. 

I do agree though some take this rather personal for some reason, it is just weather. I am not a big fan of people piggy-backing off of others ideas though and I feel like that is what the twitter/x community is anymore, but hey people love that type of stuff so.

So I am hoping for one solid foot snowfall and ill call it a year! Anything above that is bonus for me at this point. I personally do not want that much as living in the city is a pain with all that snow.

I am both busy and lazy so my knowledge stays pretty superficial. I have a tendency to give more credit to ideas that feel right in my gut than seeking out answers through research sometimes. 

My gut feels to me like part of it is the contrast. You can't look at a temperature reading and compare it back across the past hundred years apple to apple. Not when every ocean all over the world is measurably warmer.   So if we account for the increase in global sea temps then common sense would dictate that  relative to the world as a whole the standard for a super Nino might need to be raised to account for that.   

[SOMOSnow]

18z GFS through the end of Thanksgiving weekend (Monday, November 27, 12AM) 

 

Edited November 13, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[SNOWBOB11]

23 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said:

18z GFS through the end of Thanksgiving weekend (Monday, November 27, 12AM) 

 

I’ll take it. Either way it looks like end of the month and start of next month have the possibility of cold/wintery precipitation. We all know it can change but models look like they want to head in that direction.

[SNOWBOB11]

Here’s a look at the system around the 22nd.

[beaver56]

50 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said:

18z GFS through the end of Thanksgiving weekend (Monday, November 27, 12AM) 

 

The I70 / I71 cutoff at its finest for us IN and OH folks. Even fantasy land model pain in that picture. 😆 

Awesome to at least see something we can monitor. Pretty pumped for the holidays. 

Edited November 14, 2023 by beaver56

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, 1816 said:

I am both busy and lazy so my knowledge stays pretty superficial. I have a tendency to give more credit to ideas that feel right in my gut than seeking out answers through research sometimes. 

My gut feels to me like part of it is the contrast. You can't look at a temperature reading and compare it back across the past hundred years apple to apple. Not when every ocean all over the world is measurably warmer.   So if we account for the increase in global sea temps then common sense would dictate that  relative to the world as a whole the standard for a super Nino might need to be raised to account for that.   

This I think is what maybe coming to light as this is only the second full Nino event in nearly 14 years, not sure how others feel about 18/19 but it technically was a weak Nino event so I guess third. Comparing the SST anomalies to past events 15/16 needed to be around 2.6-2.7 to have similar effects to 1997 levels where we topped out around 2.2-2.3, in fact 15/16 topped out at nearly 3C for a week in 3.4. Basically at what temperature anomaly does it need to register as a full fledged Super Nino event that takes charge of the pattern at hand?

To add onto this Nino 4 had recorded the warmest temp and anomaly of any El Nino event in 15/16 where SST's were sitting consistently at 30-31C and we reached a peak anomaly around 1.7. 1997 and 1982 for instance only saw a .6-.7C above average (their relative average at the time) SST in region 4.

2015/16 had a west leaning forcing setup compared to past big nino events (97/98, 82/83) and a fairly similar forcing pattern leading up to this point to this event. The only year that reached super Nino and had west leaning like this (and even a -PDO regime) was 1972/73.  That year featured a descending solar, meaning we already hit max solar output in the cycle and were going toward the min, and it also had a WQBO both those offer a bad situation. WQBO tends to be a SPV enhancer so more +AO type of year and descending solar tends to feature more of a +NAO regime in winter. That combo just was not good for the mid atlantic. So with only one year coming nearly close to that type of setup we currently see I don't hold a lot of hope that is the final outcome. So many tend to incorporate other past near or full on super events and it skews how things get portrayed.

In all honesty I do not know how this shakes out and will be fun to watch unfold as the months go on. This will definitely be another flavor of El Nino.

Edited November 14, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[MaineJay]

14 hours ago, 1816 said:

I am both busy and lazy so my knowledge stays pretty superficial. I have a tendency to give more credit to ideas that feel right in my gut than seeking out answers through research sometimes. 

My gut feels to me like part of it is the contrast. You can't look at a temperature reading and compare it back across the past hundred years apple to apple. Not when every ocean all over the world is measurably warmer.   So if we account for the increase in global sea temps then common sense would dictate that  relative to the world as a whole the standard for a super Nino might need to be raised to account for that.   

Don't mean to derail the thread, but this is a good time to clarify what goes into defining ENSO events.

Since 1950, the baseline SSTs for the ENSO region has increased by about 0.7°C.  

Here is the 1957-58 Niño. I highlighted October to compare to now.  

The numbers are year / month / SST / baseline temp / anomaly

1957   6   28.35   27.29    1.05
1957   7   28.15   26.80    1.34
1957   8   27.68   26.32    1.36
1957   9   27.42   26.15    1.27
1957  10   27.41   26.03    1.37
1957  11   27.62   26.10    1.52
1957  12   27.89   26.18    1.71
1958   1   28.32   26.33    1.98

 

2023

2023   7   28.31   27.29    1.02
2023   8   28.21   26.86    1.35
2023   9   28.32   26.72    1.60
2023  10   28.38   26.72    1.66

So, we see that for Oct 2023 the sea surface temperature was 0.97°C warmer than Oct 1957.  Looking at the anomaly,2023 anomaly is +1.66°C, whereas 1957 was +1.37°C, making the anomaly look just 0.29°C "warmer" currently.   So compared to the 1950s, a super El Niño needs to be 0.7°C warmer nowadays to reach the same status. 

   I think you are also touching on how the relationship between SSTs and SSTAs manifests with regards to tropical convection. It's it the anomaly gradient that matters? Or the raw SST.  Absent a TC, free convection over the tropical oceans begins at about 26-26.5°C. So it begs the question, does that 26.5° isotherm matter more than the +0.5°C anomaly isopleth?

  I certainly don't know, but I do remember when Dr Klaus Wolter was doing the MEI, before the 2015-16 Niño, his discussions often touched on a diminishing influence of ENSO in recent years/decades.

[Harley8778]

Just wanted to say how much I appreciate the insight on this thread. I'm really able to learn a lot from all of the input on here. Keep up the great work everyone. No matter how much snow I do or do not get, I know it's going to be fun tracking with all of you!

[Grace]

[Pghsnow]

14 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

That is back to back storms on 27th and 28th. Active times ahead hopefully.

Edited November 14, 2023 by Pghsnow

[NEPAsnow]

The SSTA would suggest a strong east-based El Nino but the forcing mechanisms would suggest a weak to moderate west-based El Nino with all the tropical convection firing along the dateline.  Throw in the models showing a possible 3-lobed destruction of the PV by the end of November and we could be rocking and rolling till March with the atmosphere feeding back on itself with a -NAO and storms and cold. That sounds good to me

 

Edited November 14, 2023 by NEPAsnow

[beaver56]

2 hours ago, Pghsnow said:

That is back to back storms on 27th and 28th. Active times ahead hopefully.

Honestly, if that would verify, I wouldn't even care about the rest of the winter. 

Edited November 14, 2023 by beaver56

[NWOhioChaser]

At the very minimum it’s a nice surprise to see somewhat of a reversal regarding the expectation of a blowtorch heading into December. Seems like there’s definitely a chance to have a few of us surprised with some winter weather at the end of the month. 
 

[Guest]

https://www.tswails.com/single-post/what-a-day-for-a-daydream

 

Swails isn't buying into the cold/wintry transition just yet.  He's the one that sent me into a tailspin of despair a couple of weeks ago. To be fair, I think he's gun shy on calling for cold as he's done so the past couple of winters and gotten burned. 

[Pghsnow]

[Grace]

CFS Weeklies have drastically changed in the last 2 days for first couple weeks of DEC:

 

[Jon Snow]

13 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Don't mean to derail the thread, but this is a good time to clarify what goes into defining ENSO events.

Since 1950, the baseline SSTs for the ENSO region has increased by about 0.7°C.  

Here is the 1957-58 Niño. I highlighted October to compare to now.  

The numbers are year / month / SST / baseline temp / anomaly

1957   6   28.35   27.29    1.05
1957   7   28.15   26.80    1.34
1957   8   27.68   26.32    1.36
1957   9   27.42   26.15    1.27
1957  10   27.41   26.03    1.37
1957  11   27.62   26.10    1.52
1957  12   27.89   26.18    1.71
1958   1   28.32   26.33    1.98

 

2023

2023   7   28.31   27.29    1.02
2023   8   28.21   26.86    1.35
2023   9   28.32   26.72    1.60
2023  10   28.38   26.72    1.66

So, we see that for Oct 2023 the sea surface temperature was 0.97°C warmer than Oct 1957.  Looking at the anomaly,2023 anomaly is +1.66°C, whereas 1957 was +1.37°C, making the anomaly look just 0.29°C "warmer" currently.   So compared to the 1950s, a super El Niño needs to be 0.7°C warmer nowadays to reach the same status. 

   I think you are also touching on how the relationship between SSTs and SSTAs manifests with regards to tropical convection. It's it the anomaly gradient that matters? Or the raw SST.  Absent a TC, free convection over the tropical oceans begins at about 26-26.5°C. So it begs the question, does that 26.5° isotherm matter more than the +0.5°C anomaly isopleth?

  I certainly don't know, but I do remember when Dr Klaus Wolter was doing the MEI, before the 2015-16 Niño, his discussions often touched on a diminishing influence of ENSO in recent years/decades.

@MaineJay, @1816, @so_whats_happening, I can only follow most of that very marginally, but do enjoy the discussion.  Seems a good example of we really don't know what we don't know.  An infinite number of variables, all quite infinitely variable, and we have really only identified a small subset of those variables.  My science is medicine, and I am reminded everyday there is no danger of us outsmarting the original manufacturer any time soon, probably applies to meteorology too.