HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 On 11/9/2023 at 8:16 PM, JDClapper said: PSU Weather World winter forecast. https://youtu.be/CxLPVNLI97Q?si=HaP9qXBqUMJRot8V So a plug and play El Nino. Great job guys. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 11, 2023 Admin Share Posted November 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: So a plug and play El Nino. Great job guys. I feel you, feels "mailed in", but the statistics show climatology generally wins out. Plus winter is like a football game. One or two events can really dictate the outcome. A big storm just missing, or hitting, can really skew snowfall, especially in locations that might average a couple feet. One thing that seems oddly consistent, at least looking from my house, is weekend storms. So my "prediction" is storms in the great plains on Wed-thurs, Midwest on Thur-fri, OHV fri-sat, East coast on Sat-sun. Generally speaking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 11 minutes ago, MaineJay said: I feel you, feels "mailed in", but the statistics show climatology generally wins out. Plus winter is like a football game. One or two events can really dictate the outcome. A big storm just missing, or hitting, can really skew snowfall, especially in locations that might average a couple feet. One thing that seems oddly consistent, at least looking from my house, is weekend storms. So my "prediction" is storms in the great plains on Wed-thurs, Midwest on Thur-fri, OHV fri-sat, East coast on Sat-sun. Generally speaking. Yeah, weekend weather has been tragic for several months in our region, save a random nice one here and there. I can get on board with that prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 31 minutes ago, MaineJay said: I feel you, feels "mailed in", but the statistics show climatology generally wins out. Plus winter is like a football game. One or two events can really dictate the outcome. A big storm just missing, or hitting, can really skew snowfall, especially in locations that might average a couple feet. One thing that seems oddly consistent, at least looking from my house, is weekend storms. So my "prediction" is storms in the great plains on Wed-thurs, Midwest on Thur-fri, OHV fri-sat, East coast on Sat-sun. Generally speaking. Idk. There are so many factors that go in. And so far, at least the El Nino is not coupling, and acting as an El Nino would. Did not mention anything related to the teles that affect or region in huge ways. No mention of blocking wether it be lots or none. PV etc. Pure laziness or simply just are, that closed mined, that when it's an el Nino, nothing can be more impactful than and nothing can change its typical effects on the atmosphere. For a group of meteorologists, I mean, Idk what to say lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 25 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Yeah, weekend weather has been tragic for several months in our region, save a random nice one here and there. I can get on board with that prediction. Good for my work life, doesn't interfere with jobs (outdoors) yet still get the needed rain. I have no complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 11, 2023 Admin Share Posted November 11, 2023 22 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: Idk. There are so many factors that go in. And so far, at least the El Nino is not coupling, and acting as an El Nino would. Did not mention anything related to the teles that affect or region in huge ways. No mention of blocking wether it be lots or none. PV etc. Pure laziness or simply just are, that closed mined, that when it's an el Nino, nothing can be more impactful than and nothing can change its typical effects on the atmosphere. For a group of meteorologists, I mean, Idk what to say lol. I'm personally waiting on the El Niño. It refers to Christmas time, there's likely a developing kelvin wave that would likely surface near the end of December. Not saying this is a super strong event or anything really, rather that it's exact strength and coincident effects remain largely to be seen., again speaking to the time of year that ENSO events generally have their greatest effects. We are in the midst of a fairly strong westerly wind burst. This effects of this won't really be felt for weeks, as it takes roughly 3-6 weeks for these oceanic kelvin waves to surface. Second to that, does it surface right along the Peruvian coast? This would affect regions 1+2 the most. Or does it surface west of the Galapagos? Keeping the warmest anomalies from really banking up along the SA coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 15 hours ago, MesoscaleBanding said: If not for the snow, just the mood it will set for Thanksgiving. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 4 hours ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: Good for my work life, doesn't interfere with jobs (outdoors) yet still get the needed rain. I have no complaints. Speaking random nice weekends... tilled the garden, mowed one last time and dumped the trimmings on said tilled garden, backed the camper up into its off season spot in the driveway, got the deck all "off seasoned" and @StretchCT, I even moved the grill under the deck roof! 😂 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 11, 2023 Moderators Share Posted November 11, 2023 3 hours ago, JDClapper said: I even moved the grill under the deck roof! 😂 That's an improvement, you're getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 7 hours ago, JDClapper said: Speaking random nice weekends... tilled the garden, mowed one last time and dumped the trimmings on said tilled garden, backed the camper up into its off season spot in the driveway, got the deck all "off seasoned" and @StretchCT, I even moved the grill under the deck roof! 😂 I just let mine ruin outside. And have to get a new one every 3 or 4 years. Stupid but just seems to never get done lol. Maybe I'll adjust this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 (edited) Excellent 20 minute Saturday Summary from weatherbell on mjo, various El Nino factors etc. for the coming Winter: https://www.weatherbell.com/video/the-saturday-summary-132149629?full Edited November 12, 2023 by SOMOSnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/alaska-anchorage-snow-emergency.amp 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 Wow! CFS Weeklies has changed for the first week of DEC 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 3 hours ago, Grace said: Wow! CFS Weeklies has changed for the first week of DEC Some good signs heading into December just in wait and see mode right now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Some good signs heading into December just in wait and see mode right now I thought the next 6 weeks were a total loss and a waste? I read that somewhere. 😵💫 Edited November 13, 2023 by beaver56 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 13, 2023 Admin Share Posted November 13, 2023 On 10/23/2023 at 4:40 PM, Grace said: The methodology used here seemed to break down, and in fact might show negative skill, as the anomalies might be totally reversed. It's only up the the 11th, but the remaining days only exacerbate the map. Could speak to the lack of influence of the El Niño. Mostly though to the fact that these are statistically based, and are by no means fool proof. Even with all the advances, forecasting beyond 10 days is nigh impossible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 JMA is incredible! DJF DEC JAN FEB That's impressive! 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indygirl Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 Bamwx is now putting out huge snowstorm “possibility” for thanksgiving weekend! They’re saying a few models are showing it now? I hope a thread is started for it soon! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 hour ago, beaver56 said: I thought the next 6 weeks were a total loss and a waste? I read that somewhere. 😵💫 Only in Wisconsin. Not applicable to other locations. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 32 minutes ago, 1816 said: Only in Wisconsin. Not applicable to other locations. I missed that nugget......😉 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Snow Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 On 11/11/2023 at 7:24 AM, HVSNOWSTORM said: Idk. There are so many factors that go in. And so far, at least the El Nino is not coupling, and acting as an El Nino would. Did not mention anything related to the teles that affect or region in huge ways. No mention of blocking wether it be lots or none. PV etc. Pure laziness or simply just are, that closed mined, that when it's an el Nino, nothing can be more impactful than and nothing can change its typical effects on the atmosphere. For a group of meteorologists, I mean, Idk what to say lol. I enjoy reading through the various forecasts, learning what I can, and appreciating the complexity of it all. Seems there are always those that can't appreciate we really don't know what we don't know. We are always learning more and more, how something else affects things in ways we never realized before, and it is all connected. Anyway, I suspect someone out there is at this moment preparing the most precise, most accurate winter forecast ever, just in time for some event like say, maybe a volcanic eruption in Iceland or some other mischief from mother nature to scramble it all once again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 Interesting 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 A very cold look also 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: Interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 (edited) Accuweather is on the "record breaking El Niño" train: https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/el-nino-intensifies-what-does-it-mean-for-the-us-this-winter/1594936?fbclid=IwAR0_Ls6YEirxRkErudfsbxDKUBfODZP2d1bVv73ut3O0svLoutqPRlu-wCo Edited November 13, 2023 by HateWinterWarmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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