Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[StLweatherjunkie]

FWIW, the 2018 water year (Oct - Sept) has a similar northern Pacific ridge to the first 7 months of the 2023 water year. There are obvious differences on both sides of the pond in terms of placement and magnitude of troughing, but both years have clear East Asian and North American troughs. Also there's near to below normal heights across the equatorial Pacific. 

Now for the forecasting bit ... the central Pacific ridge shifted northeast over Alaska/BC during the 2019 water year and I think it would be wise to expect a similar shift for water year 2024 which should push the west coast trough farther east probably towards the Great Lakes region: 

While it could be oversimplifying things, I don't hate the quick 2014, 2015, 2019 blend as a preliminary analog. More refinement will be needed as fall approaches, but it could be a decent first cut. It also lines up pretty nicely with the 500 mb pattern I posted about on April 23rd ... 

Edited May 18, 2023 by StLweatherjunkie

[StLweatherjunkie]

On 4/23/2023 at 8:20 AM, StLweatherjunkie said:

Hot take: this is your 2023-24 winter pattern preview:

Pretty similar pattern showing up for the 2nd week of June:

Edited May 26, 2023 by StLweatherjunkie

[StormfanaticInd]

On 5/26/2023 at 12:27 AM, StLweatherjunkie said:

Pretty similar pattern showing up for the 2nd week of June:

Interesting. We are way overdue for a good winter... sooner or later

[Grace]

CanSips updated. Nice DJF. Looks terrific for Tenn Vall to Mid-Atlantic. I'd take that mth 500mb in a heartbeat.

 

DEC

 

JAN

 

FEB

 

DEC & FEB would be pretty decent for my immediate area. 

Edited June 1, 2023 by Grace

[StormfanaticInd]

On 5/31/2023 at 10:31 PM, Grace said:

CanSips updated. Nice DJF. Looks terrific for Tenn Vall to Mid-Atlantic. I'd take that mth 500mb in a heartbeat.

 

DEC

 

JAN

 

FEB

 

DEC & FEB would be pretty decent for my immediate area. 

This winter is likely to be an El Ninos which usually means a strong subtropical jet. If we can get that kind of blocking this winter could be decent 

[SOMOSnow]

On 6/2/2023 at 3:42 PM, StormfanaticInd said:

This winter is likely to be an El Ninos which usually means a strong subtropical jet. If we can get that kind of blocking this winter could be decent 

Way better than decent for many locations in that combo came together. 

[Grace]

JAMSTEC for June. JAMSTEC gives 3 sets of custard ensemble members. 2 of the 3 are nice! I'll post those 2 & I'll leave a link so you can play around with it if you'd like. 

 

 

 

Here is the link if you want to play around with it. 

https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html

[Grace]

Euro goes out to DEC

 

Edited June 14, 2023 by Grace

[Grace]

NMME which is always toasty actually looks decent for NDJ. Some of the models on te NMME page look really good for NDJ:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Seas5.html

[so_whats_happening]

22 hours ago, Grace said:

Euro goes out to DEC

 

Yea this is kinda how i see winter playing out the general cold may still be a bit west overall while the east is near average amd above average across New England. The one nice thing will be the rather active southern jet. That cold pool off cali and mexico may still be around for quite some time yet so the models are probably seeing that hold and a push toward a more neutral stance on PDO by then.

[Grace]

 

 

😆 

[StormfanaticInd]

35 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

 

😆

He is so predictable 🙄 

[StLweatherjunkie]

On 6/18/2023 at 2:47 PM, Grace said:

 

 

😆

The "much much different than last year" comment is basically a guarantee every year, especially since we're going from a 3yr Nina to a Nino. Picking the least snowy location last season (literally only 0.4" of snow) and saying they'll be the "center of the most" (whatever that means) seems like an easy way for him to pseudo verify his shenanigans. 

My biggest gripe is that half his analog blend is from more than half a century ago when it was simply colder than it is today. You can't even give him the benefit of the doubt about 1957-58 since it was the winter after a 3yr Nina transitioned to a Nino (even though enso record are extremely questionable back then). All of what he has to say is trash and I shouldn't let him bait me like this.

Edited June 24, 2023 by StLweatherjunkie

[Psu1313]

On 6/15/2023 at 11:10 AM, so_whats_happening said:

Yea this is kinda how i see winter playing out the general cold may still be a bit west overall while the east is near average amd above average across New England. The one nice thing will be the rather active southern jet. That cold pool off cali and mexico may still be around for quite some time yet so the models are probably seeing that hold and a push toward a more neutral stance on PDO by then.

The main change I would make is removing some of the precip deficits in Northern California. I expect the Pineapple Express to be pumping crazy amounts of  moisture into the west coast.

[StLweatherjunkie]

12 hours ago, Psu1313 said:

The main change I would make is removing some of the precip deficits in Northern California. I expect the Pineapple Express to be pumping crazy amounts of  moisture into the west coast.

Definitely possible, but that's what happened last winter and based on the 21st century so far, two west favored winters in a row is unprecedented

[so_whats_happening]

On 6/25/2023 at 9:34 AM, Psu1313 said:

The main change I would make is removing some of the precip deficits in Northern California. I expect the Pineapple Express to be pumping crazy amounts of  moisture into the west coast.

Maybe but as STL mentions it would be rather rare to see 2 years in a row of solid recovery, not improbable though. I would think the Pac NW may get into some better conditions for rain/snow if we manage to hold on to the neutral state or even slightly -PDO pattern. Last year they should have seen the excessive rains that Cali and SW saw but most likely the -PDO was just so anomalous coupled with a decently deep -PNA and well we saw the results. Rather impressive to see in a La Nina, again not all improbable though.

 

[Psu1313]

4 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Maybe but as STL mentions it would be rather rare to see 2 years in a row of solid recovery, not improbable though. I would think the Pac NW may get into some better conditions for rain/snow if we manage to hold on to the neutral state or even slightly -PDO pattern. Last year they should have seen the excessive rains that Cali and SW saw but most likely the -PDO was just so anomalous coupled with a decently deep -PNA and well we saw the results. Rather impressive to see in a La Nina, again not all improbable though.

 

I understand the caution. I'm basing my prediction on a strong Nino backed by the IRI model. Historically, strong Nino's have a significant correlation to above average rainfall in California while lesser events don't have the same impact. I believe the precipitation will be less than this past winter, but that isn't saying a ton due to the anomalous season that was just experienced. The good news is that we are now halfway through the year, meaning that we will all find out soon enough. 🙂 

[so_whats_happening]

5 hours ago, Psu1313 said:

I understand the caution. I'm basing my prediction on a strong Nino backed by the IRI model. Historically, strong Nino's have a significant correlation to above average rainfall in California while lesser events don't have the same impact. I believe the precipitation will be less than this past winter, but that isn't saying a ton due to the anomalous season that was just experienced. The good news is that we are now halfway through the year, meaning that we will all find out soon enough. 🙂 

I get your points. Only thing I would question, and we will surely find out soon enough, is the subsurface. There has not been an El Nino strong or weak that has not developed a WPAC cool pool at the surface and subsurface. The only time I have found where the subsurface anoms were similar in look at this time and held back until a later time was 2009 we ended up moderate to near strong status because of the strong subsurface warm push we saw in late fall/ winter. This typically is not a thing as that occurs now in some of the stronger El Nino years, so on that idea we are talking about rare territory. Not only this but with +AMO and extremely warm MDR in the Atlantic this may steal the show with forcing overall which would limit the atmospheric and oceanic components connection as well as the -PDO. Most models that were pushing strong status were pushing July to near +1.4C and by September nearing +2.0C statistical models were on the weaker side topping around 1.4+C by about October so slower growth, definitely seems the slower growth is the correct way to go for now. Of course this could reverse and we see a rather strong push coming up with a widespread +6C subsurface anomaly in the EPAC but nothing at least on the horizon dictates that. There is a possibility again if it can get itself together that a month or two push into strong category but tri-monthlies staying moderate status.

 

We shall see.

[StLweatherjunkie]

Obviously this is a summertime forecast, but it lines up with my expectations for the winter storm track into the lower lakes with coastal redevelopment and plenty of lake effect:

[Grace]

Ummm...NAO for June

 

I mean..if you're looking for a culprit for the positive SST anomalies in the N. Atlantic you don't have to look very hard.

I'm interested what this might mean for winter, if anything at all. 

Edited July 3, 2023 by Grace

[Grace]

EURO SEASONAL UPDATE

Typical warm Nino Dec & a very yummy looking JAN:

Edited July 8, 2023 by Grace

[Grace]

NMME page updated. A few models look decent for both DEC & JAN. 

DEC

 

JAN

 

It only goes out to JAN  but looking at Nino progression I'd say FEB would be golden in that scenario. Here's a link where you can look at what you want:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/monanom.shtml

 

Edited July 8, 2023 by Grace

[StormfanaticInd]

Crazy cold for July in the northern plains.  A sign of things to come this winter🤔🤔

[SOMOSnow]

On 7/6/2023 at 5:57 PM, Grace said:

EURO SEASONAL UPDATE

Typical warm Nino Dec & a very yummy looking JAN:

Amazing look for our spots for January, Grace, and would offer some potential for me in December from time to time, potentially. 

[StormfanaticInd]

This is crazy for July