Moderators StretchCT Posted November 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted November 10, 2023 NWS Boston winter forecast. Starts min 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 9 hours ago, NEPAsnow said: guess they only think el nino is the only thing that is driving the weather this winter Yeah, not trying to get too cute with other indicies. "Here's what other suoer niños did, hence this is likely what this super niño will do". Simple snd to the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 4 hours ago, JDClapper said: Yeah, not trying to get too cute with other indicies. "Here's what other suoer niños did, hence this is likely what this super niño will do". Simple snd to the point. Super El Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 (edited) Here's my analog years & what how they worked out. Obviously this is general & not specific. I'm not crazy enough to be specific on a seasonal forecast. DJF ENSO DJF 500mb DJF 2m Temp DJF Precip DEC JAN FEB First, I don't think DEC will be as bad as the composite. 2m Temps are very difficult to forecast. It's my gut there will be a couple of windows of opportunity in DEC. Second, the precip composites are not terrible but there were 2 years that really skew it a little. Last, if I had to guess on greatest chance of greatest positive anomaly snowfall potential it would be here: black above normal, red much above. This lines up pretty well with El Nino history per CPC: I do think we're getting ready to moisten up however, there is a possibility this El Nino is a tad dryer than others. I'm basing that solely on what the fall has been like. Remember that I'm not a professional or an expert but a weather weenie. Edited November 13, 2023 by Grace 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 50 minutes ago, NEPAsnow said: Super El Nino? Strong, sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 1 hour ago, JDClapper said: Strong, sorry this will be an interesting case study when this winter is over. Yes, water temp indicates a strong El Nino but other factors are making this act like a weak one without the atmosphere coupling. At the moment it is acting more like a basin-wide/ slightly west based el nino. Guess we shall find out soon enough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 Anyone hear the wild card is that water vapor in the atmosphere from the valcano two years ago a lot of Mets are talking about it being the X factor or not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 16 minutes ago, Hassaywx1223 said: Anyone hear the wild card is that water vapor in the atmosphere from the valcano two years ago a lot of Mets are talking about it being the X factor or not Yes, but I've noticed many of them are confused about something. They seem to want to talk about Pinatubo & compare Tonga from 2 years ago. Terrible comparison. Pinatubo released tons of sulfer aerosol into the stratosphere. It had a massive cooling effect on the strat leading to mostly +AO & + NAO winters. Tonga is different. Because it was an underwater Volcano, when it erupted it sent massive amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere. If the water vapor does indeed make it to the lower stratosphere in can have a cooling effect as well but warm the troposphere because its a greater greenhouse gas than C02. Note, not nearly the amount of sulfe aerosol will make it to stratosphere as the aerosol particles & it's not as widespread. So it's a guessing game of what affect, if any it might have. Some believe the unusual global temp spike this year may in part be due to it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 Last two runs of GFS have hinted at Winter mischief around Thansgiving. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 not sure where this Met is from 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 (edited) CFSlooks like it want to give us a good winter in the east November December looks ok January 👍 February 🙏🙏🙏 Edited November 10, 2023 by NEPAsnow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted November 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted November 10, 2023 Two recent (Nov.) articles from the Capital Weather Gang on this Nino and it’s possible winter’s impacts. One is geared towards the DC area but has general info as well. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/11/10/el-nino-strong-forecast-winter/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/11/09/washington-dc-winter-forecast-snow/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 (edited) Edited November 10, 2023 by MesoscaleBanding 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 38 minutes ago, Pghsnow said: Sounding like la la la land . hums theme to theme to the Smurf's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: Sounding like la la la land . hums theme to theme to the Smurf's. Those the ensembles. Euro is saying 2009 analog in play. Question is how lucky do you think the euro is. Feeling lucky punk? Edited November 10, 2023 by 1816 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 46 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: I'll just be happy for the rain honestly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 over at American a met is thinking 1967-58 winter, anyone have more info on that winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 found this for my area of NEPA https://www.tricountyindependent.com/story/news/2021/02/01/blizzard-1958-dumped-four-feet-snow-wayne-county/4339980001/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 3 hours ago, Wtkidz said: Sounding like la la la land . hums theme to theme to the Smurf's. Clearly underdone 😂😂😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 4 hours ago, NEPAsnow said: over at American a met is thinking 1967-58 winter, anyone have more info on that winter? It was one of my analogs as well. Blowtorch DEC, followed by cold JAN & very Cold FEB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 Thanksgiving week is starting to look interesting 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 5 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Thanksgiving week is starting to look interesting Give me some snowy football games to watch please. Good old fashioned Thanksgiving 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 5 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Thanksgiving week is starting to look interesting 🤣🤣 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: 🤣🤣 Crazy run. Lol. At least we have something to track now 😁 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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