Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[SOMOSnow]

1 hour ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

What does the fact that I had accumulating snow in October have to do with writing off November? The facts are it's going to be a very warm November and front half of December. It is what it is.

And I would love to live further north. Maybe some day!

Respectively, it's utterly absurd to write off the first half of December on November 7. It's just ridiculous on every level. So much can change. We've all seen countless examples of long range looking warm -- or cold -- and then it doing the opposite. Sorry, i hate Winter warmth too, but come on, man. 

Edited November 7, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[Grace]

The MEI dropped to 0.3 🤣

 

Talk about a shock!! This ain't no uper Nino in control this is still a very decoupled atmosphere. 

 

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

Edited November 7, 2023 by Grace

[Grace]

1 hour ago, Grace said:

The MEI dropped to 0.3 🤣

 

Talk about a shock!! This ain't no uper Nino in control this is still a very decoupled atmosphere. 

 

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

 

The MEI should come up & I hope that it does. That would be helpful. We just don't want it to be too strong & that's extremely unlikely now. No matter what happens at this point it a true very strong or super status is out of the question. 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, SOMOSnow said:

Respectively, it's utterly absurd to write off the first half of December on November 7. It's just ridiculous on every level. So much can change. We've all seen countless examples of long range looking warm -- or cold -- and then it doing the opposite. Sorry, i hate Winter warmth too, but come on, man. 

We will revisit this on December 14 and see how off base I was. 

[SOMOSnow]

35 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

We will revisit this on December 14 and see how off base I was. 

It doesn't even matter if you end up being right or not. The point is that nothing is set in stone a month from now. Sure, you could end up right, or may end up wrong, but neither matters. 

[Grace]

1 hour ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

We will revisit this on December 14 and see how off base I was. 

 

Climo wise a warmer DEC is always favored during El Nino, but anything is possible. Even in warmer Nino DEC every now & then you get a window. 

Of course the coldest Nino winter the last 10 years was 2014-15 which had a very warm DEC through almost mid-Jan & then it turned extremely cold. 

[NEPAsnow]

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1722087755096768857

MEI has fallen to .3 which is out of El Nino range. Means atmospheric response is not occurring.  The 2 years this has happened were 1979 and 2014.  The 2015 el nino was at 2.1. These are vastly different as the MEI involves more variables as to overall reactions

[Grace]

10 minutes ago, NEPAsnow said:

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1722087755096768857

MEI has fallen to .3 which is out of El Nino range. Means atmospheric response is not occurring.  The 2 years this has happened were 1979 and 2014.  The 2015 el nino was at 2.1. These are vastly different as the MEI involves more variables as to overall reactions

 

I wasn't mentioning 2014-15 because I thought there was a correlation. I was pointing out warm Nino DEC. 

2015-16 was the super El Nino that had the 2.1. 

[SOMOSnow]

1 hour ago, NEPAsnow said:

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1722087755096768857

MEI has fallen to .3 which is out of El Nino range. Means atmospheric response is not occurring.  The 2 years this has happened were 1979 and 2014.  The 2015 el nino was at 2.1. These are vastly different as the MEI involves more variables as to overall reactions

Those two Winters looked like this:

 

 

Edited November 8, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[Grace]

48 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

I wasn't mentioning 2014-15 because I thought there was a correlation. I was pointing out warm Nino DEC. 

2015-16 was the super El Nino that had the 2.1. 

 

He forgot 2004-05. All 3 winters look like this:

[Grace]

Gritear's Winter forecast. Really good! 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZSxc5Kig-koOzpk-p-B54S91oWMZdhHr/view?usp=drivesdk

[Pghsnow]

For those who are too lazy to click on the link... 🙂 

His explanation: What Could Derail the Forecast?
1. Anything and everything. Seasonal forecasting is hard
2. The IOD. Historically, winters with a strong +IOD like this year have not been cold and
wintry. There are ways to casually discount these previous outcomes such as: 1) +IOD
occurred during a Super El Nino so the winter was already expected to be mild (97-98),
2) +IOD occurred during a post Pinatubo winter when the AO/NAO were staunchly
positive (94-95), 3) +IOD occurred during a descending solar winter when +NAO is
favored to occur (06-07). At any rate, this is one to watch.
3. The IOD collapses in December and the equatorial waters in the West Pacific warm pool
in the E Maritime Continent and W Pacific warm leading to more convection firing in
that region than is typical in a robust El Nino, disrupting the expected Nino Walker Cell
4. The strongly -PDO controls the E Pacific / W North America Pattern leading to more
troughiness along the west coast than expected.
5. The Strat PV gets wound up tight in early winter and is stubborn to relent, leading to the
threat of +AO / +NAO conditions lingering longer than expected into mid-winter.

If I thought any of those would affect the winter outcome, I would have included it in the
outlook. Nevertheless, those are items to watch.

 

[Grace]

 

[1816]

I'm getting a little concerned about this kick the can approach to gom storms. We've got a drought going on as our local weather guy wrote about today. And it's not a great sign if we don't get it going soon. One thing about that 2009 analog - it rained constantly from spring through winter. This drought is kind of a big red flag. Carryover from the Nina but no sign of relief just yet. 

[Grace]

🙂

 

 

[SOMOSnow]

Just for fun and to let us all dream a little: the coldest Decembers for the East and or Central/East of the last 50 years. Look closely at the color chart and numbers, as some years were brutally cold, such as 1983, 1985, 1989 and 2000. Tomorrow I am going to look at these years and see what the temps were in November. Apologies if there are any duplicate years. I will go back and edit later. 

Edited November 9, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[JDClapper]

10 hours ago, 1816 said:

I'm getting a little concerned about this kick the can approach to gom storms. We've got a drought going on as our local weather guy wrote about today. And it's not a great sign if we don't get it going soon. One thing about that 2009 analog - it rained constantly from spring through winter. This drought is kind of a big red flag. Carryover from the Nina but no sign of relief just yet. 

Well, this is a start I guess. 

[NEPAsnow]

 

Direct Weather, another idea for winter

 

Edited November 9, 2023 by NEPAsnow

[Pghsnow]

CFS says be prepared for winter end of month. 

[StretchCT]

Capital Gang forecast, mostly for DC area of course.  Article gifted.

https://wapo.st/47mpvBK

This is the composite for their analog years. 🤔

 

 

Of course the above is from the 1990's through 2020 which is a warm period compared to the long term. Here is the long term, which isn't that bad really. 

Edited November 9, 2023 by StretchCT

[Grace]

1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

Capital Gang forecast, mostly for DC area of course.  Article gifted.

https://wapo.st/47mpvBK

This is the composite for their analog years. 🤔

 

 

Of course the above is from the 1990's through 2020 which is a warm period compared to the long term. Here is the long term, which isn't that bad really. 

 

That's really nice!

[Pghsnow]

5 day means

[JDClapper]

PSU Weather World winter forecast. 

https://youtu.be/CxLPVNLI97Q?si=HaP9qXBqUMJRot8V

[NEPAsnow]

29 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

PSU Weather World winter forecast. 

https://youtu.be/CxLPVNLI97Q?si=HaP9qXBqUMJRot8V

 guess they only think el nino is the only thing that is driving the weather this winter

[NEPAsnow]