JDClapper Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 16 hours ago, NEPAsnow said: Mark Margrave, NEPA meteorologist https://www.facebook.com/MarksWeather/videos/899538181731685/ 93/94, and 02/03? Yeah, I will take something resembling those winters. The best 2 winters of my existence. Lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 (edited) Euro updated. Typical warmish DEC El Nino look. JAN/FEB absolutely rocking! DEC JAN FEB FWIW, Euro drastically changed NOV from it's previous forecast. So keep in mind a lot can happen in a month that the models cannot foresee. Edited November 5, 2023 by Grace 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 (edited) Mark Margavage's Weather Discussion Page 5h · Average Winter Storm Track The latest update of the monthly European Seasonal Model (largely regarded as the best seasonal model) is showcasing a Dec,Jan,Feb precipitation pattern indicative of an average storm track originating in the western Gulf of Mexico and running up the Eastern Seaboard. This is a very snowy look, especially for the Appalachians where the elevation can help when temperatures are marginal. The winter may get off to a slow start, as El Niños often do, but once the cold air does arrive, the potential for big, blockbuster snow storms is much higher with this kind of a storm track. In my opinion, January, February, and especially March look spectacular if you like winter weather. December looks pretty average, but compared to recent snowless years, average might seem like a Winter Wonderland. Looking forward to Winter ~Meteorologist Mark Margavage https://www.facebook.com/MarksWeather Edited November 5, 2023 by NEPAsnow 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 26 minutes ago, NEPAsnow said: Mark Margavage's Weather Discussion Page 5h · Average Winter Storm Track The latest update of the monthly European Seasonal Model (largely regarded as the best seasonal model) is showcasing a Dec,Jan,Feb precipitation pattern indicative of an average storm track originating in the western Gulf of Mexico and running up the Eastern Seaboard. This is a very snowy look, especially for the Appalachians where the elevation can help when temperatures are marginal. The winter may get off to a slow start, as El Niños often do, but once the cold air does arrive, the potential for big, blockbuster snow storms is much higher with this kind of a storm track. In my opinion, January, February, and especially March look spectacular if you like winter weather. December looks pretty average, but compared to recent snowless years, average might seem like a Winter Wonderland. Looking forward to Winter ~Meteorologist Mark Margavage https://www.facebook.com/MarksWeather Honestly as someone up against the east side of the Appalachians here in sw VA, I have not seen a map of any kind that doesn't put my area in the bullseye of cold and/or snow this year. And here's another. As long as I've paid any attention to weather (since 2009 for obvious reasons, when I moved to this area), I've never seen this. Hard not to expect a ton of snow to be upon us this winter. The El Niños we have had in between produced optimism for a snowy winter but hindsight showed why they failed. If this one fails, it's going to be hard to place the blame anywhere other than Cc. Which I'm on record as saying it's changed for a billion years. Only thing that could potentially take the blame otherwise is hunga tonga but even that theoretically could help high latitude blocking based on some theories. Everything else is game on for the southern apps. Qbo. Nino. Solar. Pdo bound to change this winter. I feel like we could get buried this time and if we don't, it's time to start a complete reconsideration of climate as we know it for this area. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 Hopeful outlook from JB as we roll through the November doldrums: https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-seasonal-forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 While I like to see his forecast on the colder side a lot of it seems to depend on a SSW event. They never seem to materialize as expected. It would be helpful to have the MJO in the cold faze however. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 On 11/3/2023 at 10:15 PM, Grace said: This is Josh Herman's RRWT. I have no clue on its verification data recently. Dates underlined in red: 500mb This is very interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 On 11/5/2023 at 4:58 PM, 1816 said: Honestly as someone up against the east side of the Appalachians here in sw VA, I have not seen a map of any kind that doesn't put my area in the bullseye of cold and/or snow this year. And here's another. As long as I've paid any attention to weather (since 2009 for obvious reasons, when I moved to this area), I've never seen this. Hard not to expect a ton of snow to be upon us this winter. The El Niños we have had in between produced optimism for a snowy winter but hindsight showed why they failed. If this one fails, it's going to be hard to place the blame anywhere other than Cc. Which I'm on record as saying it's changed for a billion years. Only thing that could potentially take the blame otherwise is hunga tonga but even that theoretically could help high latitude blocking based on some theories. Everything else is game on for the southern apps. Qbo. Nino. Solar. Pdo bound to change this winter. I feel like we could get buried this time and if we don't, it's time to start a complete reconsideration of climate as we know it for this area. Maybe not in SW VA, but I literally cannot remember a year where 80% of forecasts did not put us in cold/ snowy winter for the Northern Mid Atlantic/ Northeast, it's literally every year. So I wouldn't Jump to any conclusions if it doesn't pan out as we'd like. Just the yearly pre season hype. That said, the atmosphere Is totally different than last year in almost every way, so I do not expect to be flooded with Pacific air for the entire winter or a western trough/ eastern ridge pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 Terry Swails, a met based out of Iowa, agrees with me that we can basically write off the next 5-6 weeks: https://www.tswails.com/single-post/feeling-the-love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 https://nynjpaweather.com/premium/2023/11/06/basin-wide-el-nino-continues-to-evolve/ The latest El Nino observations now have NINO 1+2 and NINO 3 at the same anomaly, while NINO 3.4 is just a little behind. The NINO 4 region continues to warm steadily and is well on the way to exceeding 1.5°C. This state of El Nino, in terms of SSTA, supports a basin-wide strong El Niño. However, we still don’t see any response matching the SSTA intensity in the SOI, with monthly and seasonal values showing only weak anomalies. The SOI represents the atmospheric response to ENSO, so we must consider forcing parameters beyond looking at the SSTA and saying A=B. The forcing continues to feature convection around the dateline and a well-sustained Subtropical jet stream. The MJO response from this El Nino continues to feature neutral to a phase 7-2 influence. This means that forcing from convection at the dateline will continue supporting stormy East Coast conditions. In short, this week, I see no changes to the overall forecast for the upcoming winter regarding ENSO or tropical forcing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 5 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: This is very interesting It is but in this case I don't really believe it right now. The next 10-12 days will tell us if it's onto something but right now I think it's incorrect,at least in the early DEC look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 0z EPS shows on the 10-15 day range the jet beginning to undercut the ridge which is classic El Nino, as it reloads on west coast at the end. As we head into DEC we want to see this more & more. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted November 7, 2023 A couple of loops to follow on Graces post of the Euro monthlies. October's in spoiler to compare but not make to dizzying. Spoiler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted November 7, 2023 November forecasts last three monthls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted November 7, 2023 Snow depth anomalies from the weeklies. I'm optimistic that the 17th is near normal for most of this audience. So if you usually have snow on the 17th, then that would be the forecast. Scale is percentages. So even if you only normally have an inch of depth, and the difference is -10, you'd still have .9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 1 hour ago, HateWinterWarmth said: Terry Swails, a met based out of Iowa, agrees with me that we can basically write off the next 5-6 weeks: https://www.tswails.com/single-post/feeling-the-love But you write off several weeks at a time every single Winter. And you're in Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said: But you write off several weeks at a time every single Winter. And you're in Wisconsin. To be fair, during my time on this forum there have been several weeks each winter that weren't really winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 4 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said: To be fair, during my time on this forum there have been several weeks each winter that weren't really winter. This happens every year somewhere. We had February 80s only for it to stay cold in snowy into April...on the east coast. You should really think about moving north. You already had accumulating snow in your back yard this year, and yet you still write off November and early December. Like a cold front can't surprise you in 2.5 weeks. We all want cold and snowy conditions, we know its rarely going to happen all winter long. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, TLChip said: This happens every year somewhere. We had February 80s only for it to stay cold in snowy into April...on the east coast. You should really think about moving north. You already had accumulating snow in your back yard this year, and yet you still write off November and early December. Like a cold front can't surprise you in 2.5 weeks. We all want cold and snowy conditions, we know its rarely going to happen all winter long. What does the fact that I had accumulating snow in October have to do with writing off November? The facts are it's going to be a very warm November and front half of December. It is what it is. And I would love to live further north. Maybe some day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, HateWinterWarmth said: It is what it is. I enjoy the met links and maps with info, but I think a few of us are tired of hearing "I'm writing off X", "torchy winter", by themselves. Winter will show up in WI, have some patience. Edited November 7, 2023 by TLChip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 Just now, TLChip said: I enjoy the met links and maps with info, but I think a few of us are tired of hearing "I'm writing of X", "torchy winter", by themselves. Winter will show up in WI, have some patience. It will show up - in mid December. Like I said 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 14 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: What does the fact that I had accumulating snow in October have to do with writing off November? The facts are it's going to be a very warm November and front half of December. It is what it is. And I would love to live further north. Maybe some day! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 11 minutes ago, 1816 said: I don't know, that picture makes it look pretty warm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: I don't know, that picture makes it look pretty warm! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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