Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Guest]

Looks like we can write off November and the first half of December due to the +EPO. After that the infamous "pattern change" could occur. 

[Mulaman984]

13 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Looks like we can write off November and the first half of December due to the +EPO. After that the infamous "pattern change" could occur. 

Write off the next month and a half…?🤔  🧐 

Edited November 3, 2023 by Mulaman984

[1816]

16 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Looks like we can write off November and the first half of December due to the +EPO. After that the infamous "pattern change" could occur. 

Dude what are  you talking about

Latest CFS for NOV.
 

    
 

    
 

     
 

    You know if this occurs DEC is screwed for sure, lol.
 
https://www.wxsphere.com/topic/302-winter-2023-2024-discussion-and-outlooks/?do=findComment&comment=55982

[SOMOSnow]

20 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Looks like we can write off November and the first half of December due to the +EPO. After that the infamous "pattern change" could occur. 

And so it begins yet another year, this time in the first week of November. One thing we can always count is you writing off weeks, months or the entire season several times every Winter. Like the groundhog predicting when Spring hits each year, your annual posts let us know that we have entered the time of year where all of us here watch the weather closely and most of us pull for snow. And with the post above kicking us off yet again, best wishes to all this November through March! ❄️

[1816]

4 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said:

And so it begins yet another year, this time in the first week of November. One thing we can always count is you writing off weeks, months or the entire season several times every Winter. Like the groundhog predicting when Spring hits each year, your annual posts let us know that we have entered the time of year where all of us here watch the weather closely and most of us pull for snow. And with the post above kicking us off yet again, best wishes to all this November through March! ❄️

What I find most hilarious about @HateWinterWarmth routine is that he is in wisconsin. WISCONSIN.

so already guaranteed more cold and snow than everyone except the mainers. Guaranteed. If that's not enough just move to Winnipeg bro. 

[Guest]

24 minutes ago, 1816 said:

What I find most hilarious about @HateWinterWarmth routine is that he is in wisconsin. WISCONSIN.

so already guaranteed more cold and snow than everyone except the mainers. Guaranteed. If that's not enough just move to Winnipeg bro. 

I live in Wisconsin because I love cold weather...so yes, it irks me when it eludes me. 

The Euro weeklies has this mild pattern locked in for the next 6 weeks. It is what it is. 

[SOMOSnow]

6 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

I live in Wisconsin because I love cold weather...so yes, it irks me when it eludes me. 

The Euro weeklies has this mild pattern locked in for the next 6 weeks. It is what it is. 

So the Euro Weeklies are now perfectly accurate for six weeks at a time? When did this start? And just so you know, I hate Winter warmth and lack of snow, too. Best wishes for a good Winter season for you and all of us!

Edited November 3, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[Guest]

1 minute ago, SOMOSnow said:

So the Euro Weeklies are now perfectly accurate for six weeks at a time? When did this start? And just so you know, I hate Winter warmth and lack of snow, too. Best wishes for a good Winter season for you and all of us!

I'm inclined to agree with them given we kind of expected this type of pattern to be prevalent in an El Nino environment. 

[Guest]

[Grace]

33 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

I live in Wisconsin because I love cold weather...so yes, it irks me when it eludes me. 

The Euro weeklies has this mild pattern locked in for the next 6 weeks. It is what it is. 

 

I posted, a page back I think,how bad models have been. I said I would not get excited or depressed about anything past 10 days. 

[SOMOSnow]

15 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Those change pretty much daily, though. It seems you tend to always grab onto the warmer runs and then preach doom and gloom. 😃

[Guest]

1 minute ago, SOMOSnow said:

Those change pretty much daily, though. It seems you tend to always grab onto the warmer runs and then preach doom and gloom. 😃

Could be. But when it aligns with what "should" occur, it's tough not to believe it. 

[Grace]

NOV 2009, and it's evolution into DEC. The reason I use 2009 is that so many things are similar to that year besides solar. And the forcing of this El Nino is very similar in location as 2009-10 & 2002-03. 2009-10 had a -PDO, & a -QBO as well.

I'm not at all suggesting a winter just like 2009-10. This winter will have its own flavor, whatever it may be. My purpose is to show a warm NOV in 2009 with some similar looking patterns I see showing up on modeling (if accurate). Here's how that warm NOV evolved to a colder DEC:

NOV, 2009 Temp anomalies

 

500mb 

 

 

NOV 1-10

 

NOV 10-20

 

NOV 20-30

 

DEC 1-10

 

DEC 10-20

 

DEC 20-31

 

DEC Temp Anomalies 

 

DEC 500mb

 

DEC 15-31, the 2nd half of Dec was the coldest. 

 

Again, I'm in no way saying this winter will be a repeat of 2009-10. I'm simply saying don't get excited or despair this month. Let it all unfold. Don't jump to conclusions either way. 

 

Edited November 7, 2023 by Grace

[Grace]

Those preaching super El Nino & using super El Nino analogs need to look at the forcing of this El Nino & how much further west it is, than the other super El Ninos. 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Grace said:

NOV 2009, and it evolution into DEC. The reason I use 2009 is that so many things are similar to that year besides solar. And the forcing of this El Nino is very similar in location as 2009-10 & 2002-03. 2009-10 had a -PDO, & a -QBO as well.

I'm not at all suggesting a winter just like 2009-10. This winter will have its own flavor, whatever it may be. My purpose is to show a warm NOV in 2009 with some similar looking patterns I see showing up on modeling (if accurate). Here's how that warm NOV evolved to a colder DEC:

NOV, 2009 Temp anomalies

 

500mb 

 

 

NOV 1-10

 

NOV 10-20

 

NOV 20-30

 

DEC 1-10

 

DEC 10-20

 

DEC 20-31

 

DEC Temp Anomalies 

 

DEC 500mb

 

DEC 15-31, the 2nd half of Dec was the coldest. 

 

Again, I'm in no way saying this winter will be a repeat of 2009-10. I'm simply saying don't get excited or despair this month. Let it all unfold. Don't jump to conclusions either way. 

 

I didn't write off December (except maybe the 1st part). I'm writing off November, which will probably slowly transition into a cooler December. Not too far from the analog you shared here. All in all, that's preferable to a cold November followed by a warm December, so I'll take it I guess. 

[Grace]

Just now, HateWinterWarmth said:

I didn't write off December (except maybe the 1st part). I'm writing off November, which will probably slowly transition into a cooler December. Not too far from the analog you shared here. All in all, that's preferable to a cold November followed by a warm December, so I'll take it I guess. 

 

Yea, we've been burned by cold NOV issuing in blowtorch DEC a few times over the last 20 years.

[1816]

I would say that what I'm looking for now is for the southern stream to start pumping out some wet systems. If we start seeing that come to fruition as we progress in Nov then it's game on hopefully. 

[StretchCT]

I liked this graphic 

 

[1816]

7 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

I liked this graphic 

 

Hard to overstate how much I like this one

[Hiramite]

These maps been around for awhile and these appear to be updated.

From the CPC, Enso vs Snowfall:
 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/snow-pain-snow-gain-how-does-el-nino-affect-snowfall-over-north-america

[NEPAsnow]

Mark Margrave, NEPA meteorologist

 

https://www.facebook.com/MarksWeather/videos/899538181731685/

 

 

 

Edited November 3, 2023 by NEPAsnow

[so_whats_happening]

Ill place two correlation maps to give us a clue what may happen coming up here as to what may be in control. One for Nino 3.4 and one based on PDO.

It is probably bad for me to say in control, more influence on the pattern at hand.

Edited November 3, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[Hassaywx1223]

9 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Looks like we can write off November and the first half of December due to the +EPO. After that the infamous "pattern change" could occur. 

I have a serious question since when do we mostly as a whole forum other than extreme northern US consider November a write it off snow month. I’ve been alive 33 years and I can count on 2 hands other than lake effect events in my area. Where I knew I was getting a significant snow storm before thanksgiving. I don’t get how we consider this a month of snow yeah we can get some but it’s not like it’s January and we’re supposed to. I just think this is what people have expected to make it about warmth and no snow as early as possible so they can be pessimistic. I really can’t see a worse winter than last winter period 

[Grace]

This is Josh Herman's RRWT. I have no clue on its verification data recently.

Dates underlined in red:

500mb

[1816]

8 minutes ago, Grace said:

This is Josh Herman's RRWT. I have no clue on its verification data recently.

Dates underlined in red:

500mb

Whoa people gonna have to take another look at that 2009 analog they keep saying not to key in on.