Jump to content

Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks


NKYSnowLover

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, NEPAsnow said:

Think that will change the forcing from west to east?

Anomalies will look east based but they already have been until last month warmer waters migrated west to region 3.0 & 3.4. But the forcing has been west similar to a central Pac El Nino the entire time due to other factors so that might continue. Just don't really know. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For any interested, @bamwx will have a live winter weather seminar/forecast at 10am central time Wednesday, October 25. It's always very detailed with lots of data, reasoning and explanations. You can sign up for free via @bamwx on twitter/x. If you miss it live, they will email you a link. 

Edited by SOMOSnow
  • LIKE 2
  • THUMBS UP 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/24/2023 at 6:18 PM, NEPAsnow said:

Think that will change the forcing from west to east?

The wind event has been ongoing for a whole. SST's have not warmed in east.over last 15 fans 3.4 has warmed & 1 and 2 have cooled.

But the forcing, which has been west the entire event,may or may not change. The only given is that the event should be pushing warmer waters east but has not so far but that does not mean the forcing will change. 

  • LIKE 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Moderators

I'm wondering if this season will be stormy.  Seems to want to get off to that kind of start.  Doesn't mean snow sadly, but it should be pretty interesting this year.  Maybe a lot of heartbreaks, but isn't there always...

image.thumb.png.4f1493b8e86b35f8a44b4107c0775ca9.png

  • LIKE 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/24/2023 at 10:23 PM, SOMOSnow said:

For any interested, @bamwx will have a live winter weather seminar/forecast at 10am central time Wednesday, October 25. It's always very detailed with lots of data, reasoning and explanations. You can sign up for free via @bamwx on twitter/x. If you miss it live, they will email you a link. 

 

 I missed it. What did they say?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Ugh that reminds me that there's a lawn under the leaves, at least I think that's what you were saying.

Yeah, I saw that but was entirely too lazy to edit the spelling afterwards.

Lawn. 😄

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Some interesting graphics from NOAA Climate.gov

elninosnowfalls.thumb.jpeg.c05dbe12908a5a0e47b4f7812df7375e.jpeg

elninoyearsbelowaveragesnow.thumb.jpeg.29f8cbce3fec353942c834524e7b2428.jpeg

I kinda love these graphics, because they show how weak the signal for my area. Even if these maps showed the deepest browns in MBY, a 10 inch deficit is 5-10% of our annual average. It's a bigger percentage across upstate New York, but not by a huge margin since many of those places also average over 50 in/yr.

I'm curious what the top graphic would look like if they plotted variance, because I'm willing to bet it would be much greater than +/- 10 inches. Also, these graphics were made using model data instead of real observations so I'm not sure I'd trust it for lake effect or mountains areas with sharp snowfall gradients.

The bottom graphic has me wondering about Florida, could it really be similar chances for below normal snowfall in Jacksonville (averages 0.1" of snow) and Detroit (averages ~33 inches)? 

  • LIKE 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

I kinda love these graphics, because they show how weak the signal for my area. Even if these maps showed the deepest browns in MBY, a 10 inch deficit is 5-10% of our annual average. It's a bigger percentage across upstate New York, but not by a huge margin since many of those places also average over 50 in/yr.

 

Yeah looking at the east coast a -2 or -4 in Maine(50+) is minor compared to Delaware (15-20 average) at +8 .

In the second picture for the mid Atlantic that’s a 50/50 shot at seeing below average snowfall. 6 years out of 13 saw below average, means the other 7 saw normal/above. 
 

Does this mean southern sliders or/and nor’easters being stronger further south. I’m not a long range guy but that’s what I would guess. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

After seeing the 12Z GFS, I was curious if any of the EPS ensembles had anything like that. There were a couple. But I ran across this jewel and thought i'd share to get a few people in the winter mode. Certainly it's not anything I'm expecting just thought it's neat to see....just for giggles:

 

Screenshot_20231029-123301_Chrome.jpg

Edited by Grace
  • LIKE 2
  • LOVE 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...