NEPAsnow Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 what would a +PDO do for winter on East Coast in our current setup. It appears the -PDO is getting erased currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 On 10/19/2023 at 5:31 PM, NEPAsnow said: https://twitter.com/MikeMasco/status/1712271267120714007 Often times it's very hard to break these kind of patterns. They end up just showing up over and over again. Models will show a flip happening in the longer range, then as we get closer, it never does because of the difficulty to break these longer term patterns. So I do think to some extent we could be in decent shape for winter as there isn't any huge atmospheric changes that IMO look to take place soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 43 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: Often times it's very hard to break these kind of patterns. They end up just showing up over and over again. Models will show a flip happening in the longer range, then as we get closer, it never does because of the difficulty to break these longer term patterns. So I do think to some extent we could be in decent shape for winter as there isn't any huge atmospheric changes that IMO look to take place soon. i posted this as a positive for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 On 10/16/2023 at 8:43 AM, Grace said: First, the Siberian snow-cover theory...I just don't have a lot of confidence in it. Second, Per that theory it's about snow gain throughout the month of October. Why would Steve talk about that on October 15th? IMO E Canadian snow-cover is more important for us in the East. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 I don't put a lot of stock in the CFS products overall, but just for fun, here is the latest 45 day temp projections from the CFS and CFS control. 👇 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 We are getting close to the monthly seasonal updates from Euro, Canadian etc. November is the month I really hone in on to see what the seasonal guidance says. Gonna be super interesting to see these updates. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 First snow of the season possibly? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 (edited) On 10/21/2023 at 9:19 AM, NEPAsnow said: what would a +PDO do for winter on East Coast in our current setup. It appears the -PDO is getting erased currently. Edited October 22, 2023 by SOMOSnow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 On 10/21/2023 at 9:19 AM, NEPAsnow said: what would a +PDO do for winter on East Coast in our current setup. It appears the -PDO is getting erased currently. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 (edited) On 10/20/2023 at 4:51 PM, Pghsnow said: NOAA prediction vs actual I'll give them 17-18 and 21-22. 15-16, 19-20 were directionally correct, but a bit on the extreme side What's sad about the actuals image is after 15-16 we've been paying for 13-14/14-15 in the eastern Conus for about 7 years without something even close to relatable to those years Thanks for posting, as many would attest, I'm a big maps/images post kinda guy 😄, especially when it comes to year over year compares Edited October 23, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 34 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: I'll give them 17-18 and 21-22. 15-16, 19-20 were directionally correct, but a bit on the extreme side What's sad about the actuals image is after 15-16 we've been paying for 13-14/14-15 in the eastern Conus for about 7 years without something even close to relatable to those years Thanks for posting, as many would attest, I'm a big maps/images post kinda guy 😄, especially when it comes to year over year compares And despite what many "mets" in social media hype up, I don't exactly feel all warm and fuzzy about this year either, especially with a strong eastern based El Nin~o. Many times those don't bode well for EC winters. I'll believe it when I see it if this winter comes close to even decent. I guess the MEI value for August-September keeps some hope alive, but remains to be seen what it will be for October-November: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 44 minutes ago, TheComet said: And despite what many "mets" in social media hype up, I don't exactly feel all warm and fuzzy about this year either, especially with a strong eastern based El Nin~o. Many times those don't bode well for EC winters. I'll believe it when I see it if this winter comes close to even decent. I guess the MEI value for August-September keeps some hope alive, but remains to be seen what it will be for October-November: I tend to agree with this sentiment. I do think there's going to be a bunch of moisture running around and there will be major storms/potential, but where they set up is up for debate. What excites me though is that moisture running around the south. That will get drawn upon eventually and some of us are going to get absolutely smoked by a snowstorm and maybe multiple if we get a recurring pattern. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 On 10/21/2023 at 10:12 AM, so_whats_happening said: Been a very long while since we have seen just a powder storm Pretty sure I lucked out Feb 21, don’t remember sleet sneaking in, rare for sure the past few years for strictly powder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 Here are some more crap throwers predictions... 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 He has a point. A lot of conflicting signals. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 15 hours ago, Pghsnow said: Here are some more crap throwers predictions... top left has me on the floor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 1 hour ago, TLChip said: top left has me on the floor. Considering 72" would be a near record low amount for my area, I also find it rather amusing. I think middle right may be onto the right signal and they're smart enough not to put numbers on anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 3 hours ago, TLChip said: top left has me on the floor. 72" in Seattle! That would be some kind of record! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 3 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said: Considering 72" would be a near record low amount for my area, I also find it rather amusing. I think middle right may be onto the right signal and they're smart enough not to put numbers on anything. Those are fantasy numbers in SEPA, betting that would be a record year. Record in Harrisburg is 76” in a year, didn’t find my local quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 (edited) 5 hours ago, TLChip said: Those are fantasy numbers in SEPA, betting that would be a record year. Record in Harrisburg is 76” in a year, didn’t find my local quickly. It's unwise to bet on a record year, just focus on above-average then once you're there ... enjoy it! Edit: my vague understanding of PA climate is it's really tough to get good snow in SEPA so planning on a couple trips to the mountains would increase your chances ... Edited October 24, 2023 by StLweatherjunkie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 21 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said: my vague understanding of PA climate is it's really tough to get good snow in SEPA so planning on a couple trips to the mountains would increase your chances ... You would be correct, big snows in SEPA need a perfect setup. I track and enjoy, learned not to set a bar for the year and you can’t be disappointed 🤣 I pointed that one out as it seems extremely unlikely Del/SEPA out snows Maine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlizzardOf1978 Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 (edited) October Will End With Widespread Cold Snap For Much Of United States https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2023-10-24-late-october-cold-snap-united-states?cm_ven=dnt_social_facebook&sf183022369=1&fbclid=IwAR3Ozf71ha5I13WzdRmqPgyg6_Xx_stzcI2qkytYk7iKKEjwuW6zJu1BpHA Edited October 24, 2023 by TheBlizzardOf1978 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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