Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[StretchCT]

On 10/2/2023 at 10:21 PM, StretchCT said:

Other comparisons to 2009.

QBO lines up similar too.

 

[Grace]

1 hour ago, NEPAsnow said:

https://twitter.com/MikeMasco/status/1712271267120714007

 

 

[1816]

2 hours ago, StretchCT said:

It can go several ways... Take the 30-40% range of states where maybe it's 1.5 above normal vs the northern tier which may be at 3 above normal.  When the normal Jan high in Indianapolis for example is 36, then it's 37.5.  Meanwhile in Bangor, the average high might be 26 or 27 in January, making it 29-30.  And if you have most days around normal, for Maine, it doesn't hurt snow chances. For Indianapolis, it might, but not that much more than usual.

Or you can have it swing wildly and average those temps.  And that can go two ways: either cutter storms to the west of the location brining in warm air ahead for a few days, and then cold air behind for a few days.  Or it can be storms passing to the east with only moderate warming between them.

Of course NOAA doesn't put actual values in there though, so 30% chance of warmer weather might mean its 1 degree or 10 degrees warmer.  

That's kind of what I was getting at. Averages are normally not what you actually get. You get extremes on both ends and the average is the middle ground over time. So +1 or +2 could mean a super warm dec and and a darn cold Jan and Feb with a warmup in the middle. No one (in their right mind) would consider that a "torchy" winter 

[Grace]

I think possible @so_whats_happeningmight have made a similar post to this but a poster on American was showing how regardless of the SST's the forcing so far with this El Nino is much more of the 2002-03, 2009-10 variety than the super Nino 92-83, 97-98, 2015-16 variety. 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59041-2023-2024-winterenso-disco/?do=findComment&comment=7032348

[SOMOSnow]

3 hours ago, Grace said:

 

 

@Grace, that's a literal bullseye for you. Where would the numbers need to be to center that 40 miles east of Springfield, MO? 

[Grace]

 

[Grace]

2 hours ago, SOMOSnow said:

@Grace, that's a literal bullseye for you. Where would the numbers need to be to center that 40 miles east of Springfield, MO? 

 

To he honest, not sure. I'm sure you do just fine with that. 

[Guest]

12 hours ago, 1816 said:

That's kind of what I was getting at. Averages are normally not what you actually get. You get extremes on both ends and the average is the middle ground over time. So +1 or +2 could mean a super warm dec and and a darn cold Jan and Feb with a warmup in the middle. No one (in their right mind) would consider that a "torchy" winter 

I must not be in my right mind. A winter with above average temperatures overall is a torch in my book, regardless of how it got there. In your example with the warm December and January thaw, obviously the warm periods were stronger than the cold periods if the overall temperature anomaly ended above average. 

[Wnwniner]

58 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

I must not be in my right mind. A winter with above average temperatures overall is a torch in my book, regardless of how it got there. In your example with the warm December and January thaw, obviously the warm periods were stronger than the cold periods if the overall temperature anomaly ended above average. 

As a novice, thats one thing I am learning about seasonal forecasts.  A short period of time can really influence seasonal data, yet most people may remember the season the other way.  A short, intense warm period can skew averages, but the rest of the winter could be average or even a little cool with decent snow and the seasonal average and peoples recollection won't match.

[MesoscaleBanding]

1 hour ago, Wnwniner said:

As a novice, thats one thing I am learning about seasonal forecasts.  A short period of time can really influence seasonal data, yet most people may remember the season the other way.  A short, intense warm period can skew averages, but the rest of the winter could be average or even a little cool with decent snow and the seasonal average and peoples recollection won't match.

This is true - 2013-14 is a great example (locally speaking) - I believe we had a very torchy December in the OV region, but the rest of that winter was overall very cold/snowy & most would remember that winter as the latter. 

[SOMOSnow]

 

[SOMOSnow]

Weatherbell NOV-MAR temps (left) and snow (right). 

 

Edited October 20, 2023 by SOMOSnow
Wording

[SOMOSnow]

Will C. forecast. Lots went into thus 8 minute summary. Many here will like the snow prediction. 

 

[MesoscaleBanding]

Hello winter...

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

21 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Hello winter...

 

I started blowing up our monthly thread haha 

[TLChip]

We can have above average temps and above average snowfall at the same time. 
 

If we’re really cold I assume it’s going to be mostly clippers dropping in on us. If we stay near average or above that puts us in a better spot for bigger Nor’easter setups. 
 

Id take the setup we have this year over last. Pretty certain we will get some good cold shots this year and hopefully interact with another system and bring the goods. 
 

No matter how we try to look at a stacked deck it’s still luck getting all the ingredients together for big snowstorms. 
 

The best news is…. It’s about tracking season!

[Grace]

[Pghsnow]

NOAA prediction vs actual

[NEPAsnow]

https://twitter.com/MeteoMark

 

 

[1816]

46 minutes ago, Pghsnow said:

NOAA prediction vs actual

So they are just as clueless as everyone else making long range forecast.  Ok good to know. 

A couple are more or less dead on and a couple are way way off. Otherwise it's a crap shoot. 

[TLChip]

Even with the warm anoms on that map, February 2021 we had snow cover IMBY for most of the month. Started with a big 20+”. 

[MaineJay]

12 hours ago, TLChip said:

Even with the warm anoms on that map, February 2021 we had snow cover IMBY for most of the month. Started with a big 20+”. 

Yeah, January and February can certainly pull that off.  December is so highly variable, even a thin veneer of snow (or lack thereof) can really skew temps either way.

   I'll be working outdoors for the majority of the winter. Not sure how much structure we'll be able to get up before challenging weather moves in, but it isn't looking good.  Building for nice folks, but they completely changed their design at the last minute, so that delay is putting us up against it.

   So I'd be tickled at a 2009-10 winter, as I've seen used as an analog, but I wouldn't bank on it.  Even a similar H5 pattern might not create the same axis of snowfall.

  Last winter had some of the wettest, most dense, difficult to move storms I can remember. It wasn't one or two, it was every one. I think I had one easy storm to clear last winter, the rest were arduous.  Hope to avoid that.

[SNOWBOB11]

2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Yeah, January and February can certainly pull that off.  December is so highly variable, even a thin veneer of snow (or lack thereof) can really skew temps either way.

   I'll be working outdoors for the majority of the winter. Not sure how much structure we'll be able to get up before challenging weather moves in, but it isn't looking good.  Building for nice folks, but they completely changed their design at the last minute, so that delay is putting us up against it.

   So I'd be tickled at a 2009-10 winter, as I've seen used as an analog, but I wouldn't bank on it.  Even a similar H5 pattern might not create the same axis of snowfall.

  Last winter had some of the wettest, most dense, difficult to move storms I can remember. It wasn't one or two, it was every one. I think I had one easy storm to clear last winter, the rest were arduous.  Hope to avoid that.

The wet dense storms are the worst lol. We had one in march and it was over a foot of pure slop. And you better clear it before the temperature drops.

[so_whats_happening]

23 hours ago, Wnwniner said:

As a novice, thats one thing I am learning about seasonal forecasts.  A short period of time can really influence seasonal data, yet most people may remember the season the other way.  A short, intense warm period can skew averages, but the rest of the winter could be average or even a little cool with decent snow and the seasonal average and peoples recollection won't match.

Exactly take this month for example beginning of October was extremely warm for many areas east of the Rockies for only about the first 5 days after that is has been rather cool, average to below average, but the damage was done unfortunately. We look to have small periods of warmth now as we close out the month so the month ends up above average for a good chunk of the areas east of the Rockies except the SE.

2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Yeah, January and February can certainly pull that off.  December is so highly variable, even a thin veneer of snow (or lack thereof) can really skew temps either way.

   I'll be working outdoors for the majority of the winter. Not sure how much structure we'll be able to get up before challenging weather moves in, but it isn't looking good.  Building for nice folks, but they completely changed their design at the last minute, so that delay is putting us up against it.

   So I'd be tickled at a 2009-10 winter, as I've seen used as an analog, but I wouldn't bank on it.  Even a similar H5 pattern might not create the same axis of snowfall.

  Last winter had some of the wettest, most dense, difficult to move storms I can remember. It wasn't one or two, it was every one. I think I had one easy storm to clear last winter, the rest were arduous.  Hope to avoid that.

I think the bolded is an important thing to realize just because a pattern looks similar doesn't mean it acts in the same way. I mean maybe we get that random chance at a wild winter but I also wouldn't bank on it. I feel even if we get a quarter to third of what that season produced around the mid atlantic folks will be happy. Of course more is always wanted! lol

[so_whats_happening]

6 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

The wet dense storms are the worst lol. We had one in march and it was over a foot of pure slop. And you better clear it before the temperature drops.

Welcome to what snow is like further south almost every storm! It sucks!

Been a very long while since we have seen just a powder storm. Jan 2016 probably was the closest we have seen in quite some time.

Edited October 21, 2023 by so_whats_happening