Grace Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 (edited) I don't know what impact this might have this early other than weaken the strat PV but on the European model we have a split at 50mb & on its way to splitting at 10mb by day 10: 50mb 10mb Edited October 17, 2023 by Grace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 No money on any of those early forecast memers. Glad we have @so_whats_happening with in-depth current conditions. Big thanks to you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Dreaming of a white Christmas... 2 1 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 11 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: So basing it off this we should expect a warm December Grumble grumble... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted October 17, 2023 Moderators Share Posted October 17, 2023 (edited) On 10/16/2023 at 8:44 AM, thebigo said: Wilma is legendary among the northern new england ski community. Buddy and I skied Killington all weekend, several feet of fresh snow in the woods on bare ground, we were in T-shirts with leaves on the trees. They got open for maybe three days, then it warmed up and the snow was gone within a week. Ha...I was skiing Pico and Stratton after that one. Believe I should have some pics in an old shoebox from that one somewhere around here. Had some buddies ski from the summit of Mt Washington all the way down Sherburne to their car. That said...I don't think it was actually Wilma that created the snow...but was rather a coastal storm that had a feed off of Wilma's moisture. Just remember it being a unique setup... Edit: Yup...here's a report from it: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/noreaster-cuts-power-to-thousands/ Edited October 17, 2023 by telejunkie 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted October 18, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted October 18, 2023 15 hours ago, Grace said: I don't know what impact this might have this early other than weaken the strat PV but on the European model we have a split at 50mb & on its way to splitting at 10mb by day 10: 50mb 10mb Nice interesting to see within the 240 hr mark at that. 12 hours ago, TLChip said: No money on any of those early forecast memers. Glad we have @so_whats_happening with in-depth current conditions. Big thanks to you! Honestly I could be horribly wrong lol Since snowfall is completely random from year to year only two of those winters were abysmal years for snowfall (1972-73/1997-98 both super Ninos). The other years we saw at least one solid snowstorm of 1-2 feet across the area with an average of around 39" on the seasons. The only year skewing things dramatically is 09-10 which stands as our record snowfall year and the only year to experience a decent December snowfall. 57-58 December had a couple minor events which is about as typical as it gets in an El Nino year. Here was the SST look for those years minor +PDO look with warmest Nino anomalies around 140W with a -VP look around 140-160W. Honestly the hardest surely is the amount of precip that could fall. It will be interesting to see which takes hold more so the -PDO that looks to at least stay until December? or the El Nino. We have had a lot of back and forth and one is not dominating over the other specifically. Here is the correlation of PDO in October versus what we are currently seeing again quite mixture of influences taking place see how we look moving forward into November. Quite a ways to go for first snowfall talk! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Could be a pretty sizable fall storm to end the month with a look like this! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 💗 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 another year pivotal has still not added 48 hour snow maps 🙄 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 (edited) 13 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Honestly I could be horribly wrong lol Yes but you’re not putting snowfall maps out haha. The way you’ve take current data and compare it to similar years, is imo the best shot you got. Depending on the models extrapolating data out 3 months is throwing a dart. Winter is pretty hard to nail, especially in most of our locations. Our snowfall typically comes from a few big systems and an “average” is hard. It’s not like we see 24” every year, it could be as low as 0-8” and higher than 40”. Some years we see snow fall in multiple months, other years we’re lucky to see flakes in 2 different months. Like some of our members that track their yearly snowfall totals, I know some have 100+ seasons and 40” seasons. Edited October 18, 2023 by TLChip 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 6 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: another year pivotal has still not added 48 hour snow maps 🙄 Dates vary 2-3 days but same storm. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 (edited) GEFS Ensemble Mean splits the strat PV at 10mb & 50mb on Day 11 Folks, when it's an Ensemble mean it gers my attention a little more. I don't really know what it would mean this early except that the PV is weakened. Edited October 19, 2023 by Grace 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 BAM's snow forecast Move it north a little & I like it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted October 19, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted October 19, 2023 21 hours ago, TLChip said: Yes but you’re not putting snowfall maps out haha. The way you’ve take current data and compare it to similar years, is imo the best shot you got. Depending on the models extrapolating data out 3 months is throwing a dart. Winter is pretty hard to nail, especially in most of our locations. Our snowfall typically comes from a few big systems and an “average” is hard. It’s not like we see 24” every year, it could be as low as 0-8” and higher than 40”. Some years we see snow fall in multiple months, other years we’re lucky to see flakes in 2 different months. Like some of our members that track their yearly snowfall totals, I know some have 100+ seasons and 40” seasons. I get that and I think many don't realize just how difficult that is to forecast precip and especially snowfall, is extremely difficult to forecast, at that long of a range let alone over 120 hrs. Way too variable and hence why many tend to go conservative on what may actually occur. If we could tame our expectations to a temp and precip (above or below normal) forecast I get the need to be more specific for cities and businesses for planning for longer range items. Many in the public I feel could care less of what specifics are for snowfall range at 2-3 month lead times the words they hear are above or below normal, record, extreme, etc. I tend not to do much long range forecasting like this as I am still learning to grasp all the seasonal climos and intricacies and snowfall is but one small aspect of it all. I applaud those that stick their necks out on long range forecasts, critiques are important but some get downright nasty towards others on forecasts. That is why it becomes important to show the reasonings, not everyone will agree but at least the information is there to back up thoughts. Anyway it would be truly unprecedented for us to experience yet another year of severely below average snowfall but we are in a world of some more extremes right now so to have that happen again may not be totally out of the realm of possibilities. This is a nice graph of Millersville (just SW of my location) snow over the last 90-100 years the last 2 years have not been updated but they are really low lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 JAMSTEC updated... 2m Temps...all members mean Precip JAMSTEC does not produce a 500mb map. Also it uses 108 ensemble members that come from 3 groups. One of those 3 groups is really cold but is offset by one that is warm. One was unavailable. Here's the group of members that were really cold, just for giggles: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted October 19, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted October 19, 2023 14 hours ago, Grace said: GEFS Ensemble Mean splits the strat PV at 10mb & 50mb on Day 11 Folks, when it's an Ensemble mean it gers my attention a little more. I don't really know what it would mean this early except that the PV is weakened. It will be interesting to watch with the ever persistent -NAO regime we have had it is no surprise to see an attack just need the pacific to cooperate which it should at times hopefully we get more WPAC tropical activity to really stir things up. A weakened PV this early will just mean that stronger hits on it later on will allow this to fold rather quickly and if this continued weakening happens we could look for a full reversal maybe before the new year. Ill have to see if I can find past 10mb maps to get a better idea of progression. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 (edited) Channel 16 in NEPA going with typical El Nino conditions. They talk like NOAA is the end all be all and just because its an El Nino this will happen. 16 Edited October 19, 2023 by NEPAsnow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 19, 2023 Moderators Share Posted October 19, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 40 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Seems like everyone is coming to the consensus that we're in for another torchy winter. Lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 1 minute ago, HateWinterWarmth said: Seems like everyone is coming to the consensus that we're in for another torchy winter. Lovely. That's not what this says buddy. Above normals over all =/= torch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 https://twitter.com/MikeMasco/status/1712271267120714007 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 https://twitter.com/MikeMasco/status/1712271267120714007 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 19, 2023 Moderators Share Posted October 19, 2023 1 hour ago, 1816 said: That's not what this says buddy. Above normals over all =/= torch It can go several ways... Take the 30-40% range of states where maybe it's 1.5 above normal vs the northern tier which may be at 3 above normal. When the normal Jan high in Indianapolis for example is 36, then it's 37.5. Meanwhile in Bangor, the average high might be 26 or 27 in January, making it 29-30. And if you have most days around normal, for Maine, it doesn't hurt snow chances. For Indianapolis, it might, but not that much more than usual. Or you can have it swing wildly and average those temps. And that can go two ways: either cutter storms to the west of the location brining in warm air ahead for a few days, and then cold air behind for a few days. Or it can be storms passing to the east with only moderate warming between them. Of course NOAA doesn't put actual values in there though, so 30% chance of warmer weather might mean its 1 degree or 10 degrees warmer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 (edited) 36 minutes ago, NEPAsnow said: https://twitter.com/MikeMasco/status/1712271267120714007 Team -QBO 👊 Edited October 19, 2023 by Grace 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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