Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Grace]

Tis the season to post fantasy 384 hr GFS maps, 🙂

 

 

500 mb support on GEFS

Edited October 12, 2023 by Grace

[Penn State]

5 hours ago, Grace said:

Tis the season to post fantasy 384 hr GFS maps, 🙂

 

I’ve always wanted a “snowicane”.. can we dial one of those up? I’ve always envisioned this as a late October, early November event.. deep trough, little ball of energy, phasing, and lots and lots of snow in the interior as tropical meets arctic. I don’t recall anything like that ever happening.. not even sure if it’s possible. 

[SOMOSnow]

2 hours ago, Penn State said:

I’ve always wanted a “snowicane”.. can we dial one of those up? I’ve always envisioned this as a late October, early November event.. deep trough, little ball of energy, phasing, and lots and lots of snow in the interior as tropical meets arctic. I don’t recall anything like that ever happening.. not even sure if 

They had something like that in 1993 in the deep South. Blizzard and massive heavy Snow in Georgia by daybreak or slightly before (top) but overnight blizzard and massive heavy snow in Alabama and the coverage I reviewed years ago is mesmerizing. Here's part one below. There are several parts. (Bottom). 

 

Edited October 13, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[SNOWBOB11]

Some early winter colder conditions showing up for possibly the end of the month

[StLweatherjunkie]

11 hours ago, Penn State said:

I’ve always wanted a “snowicane”.. can we dial one of those up? I’ve always envisioned this as a late October, early November event.. deep trough, little ball of energy, phasing, and lots and lots of snow in the interior as tropical meets arctic. I don’t recall anything like that ever happening.. not even sure if it’s possible. 

Look up snow reports from Superstorm Sandy. Excerpt from the Wikipedia page below:

Spoiler

There was 1–3 feet (30–91 cm) of snowfall in 28 of West Virginia's 55 counties.^[8][277] The highest snowfall accumulation was 36 inches (91 cm) near Richwood.^[8] Other significant totals include 32 inches (81 cm) in Snowshoe, 29 inches (74 cm) in Quinwood,^[278] and 28 inches (71 cm) in Davis, Flat Top, and Huttonsville.^[279] 

 

[Penn State]

2 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

Look up snow reports from Superstorm Sandy. Excerpt from the Wikipedia page below:

  Hide contents

There was 1–3 feet (30–91 cm) of snowfall in 28 of West Virginia's 55 counties.^[8][277] The highest snowfall accumulation was 36 inches (91 cm) near Richwood.^[8] Other significant totals include 32 inches (81 cm) in Snowshoe, 29 inches (74 cm) in Quinwood,^[278] and 28 inches (71 cm) in Davis, Flat Top, and Huttonsville.^[279] 

 

Good point.. Sandy did have a wintry side in the Appalachians. I’m in the valley region, so we were all wind and rain for that one. 

[MesoscaleBanding]

5 hours ago, Penn State said:

Good point.. Sandy did have a wintry side in the Appalachians. I’m in the valley region, so we were all wind and rain for that one. 

I remember getting about 1" of snow from Sandy in my area.

[Grace]

On 10/13/2023 at 2:49 PM, MesoscaleBanding said:

I remember getting about 1" of snow from Sandy in my area.

Parts of West Virginia got hammered 

[NEPAsnow]

this thread has been really quiet, any reason?

[SOMOSnow]

Renewed my weatherbell subscription yesterday. Should have waited a couple more weeks but couldn't resist. It's almost that time of year. ❄️

[Grace]

 

[NEPAsnow]

 

 

[StLweatherjunkie]

That'll do 00z GFS, that'll do

[Grace]

5 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

That'll do 00z GFS, that'll do

 

Not to mention a big severe weather maker as well. 

[Grace]

JMA updated & like UKMET...it's about as sweet of a 3 mnth mean as you'll see.

DJF

 

JMA gives a seasonal outlook, which is the winter months of DJF above but you can't get individual months from it. But JMA gives a 3 month outlook every month, so this month its NDJ. So, I can get DEC & JAN individual months from the 3 mnth outlook. 

DEC

 

JAN

 

Next month we'll be able to see FEB as well.

Take away is DEC looks decent in the plains & OV, not too different than the Euro.

JAN is a freaking winter fantasy map!!! I'm sure FEB is as well from looking at the DJF mean. 

 

Let me add the ENSO profile for anyone interested. Key note is region 1&2 continue to fall & most of the warmer waters are in regions 3 & 3.4. Pretty strong El Nino forecast.

Edited October 16, 2023 by Grace

[NEPAsnow]

Steve D winter outlook is not as hopeful as most others. It cites the lack of Eurasian and Siberian snow cover as a negative that will keep the cold shots from having staying power and moderate and leave quickly.   Says majority of NE from Mason Dixon line up will have below normal snowfall and  will miss out on most storms storms

[Grace]

15 minutes ago, NEPAsnow said:

Steve D winter outlook is not as hopeful as most others. It cites the lack of Eurasian and Siberian snow cover as a negative that will keep the cold shots from having staying power and moderate and leave quickly.   Says majority of NE from Mason Dixon line up will have below normal snowfall and  will miss out on most storms storms

 

First, the Siberian snow-cover theory...I just don't have a lot of confidence in it.

Second,  Per that theory it's about snow gain throughout the month of October. Why would Steve talk about that on October 15th?

[thebigo]

On 10/12/2023 at 7:47 PM, Penn State said:

I’ve always wanted a “snowicane”.. can we dial one of those up? I’ve always envisioned this as a late October, early November event.. deep trough, little ball of energy, phasing, and lots and lots of snow in the interior as tropical meets arctic. I don’t recall anything like that ever happening.. not even sure if it’s possible. 

Wilma is legendary among the northern new england ski community. Buddy and I skied Killington all weekend, several feet of fresh snow in the woods on bare ground, we were in T-shirts with leaves on the trees. They got open for maybe three days, then it warmed up and the snow was gone within a week. 

Edited October 16, 2023 by thebigo

[1816]

2 hours ago, NEPAsnow said:

Steve D winter outlook is not as hopeful as most others. It cites the lack of Eurasian and Siberian snow cover as a negative that will keep the cold shots from having staying power and moderate and leave quickly.   Says majority of NE from Mason Dixon line up will have below normal snowfall and  will miss out on most storms storms

Like I don't even understand this nonsense. There's no need to worry about any cold shots staying power in mid cotober and by December when it does matter I feel pretty comfortable saying there will be plenty of snow-cover in Siberia at that time to cool down the air. 

[Grace]

FWIW, here are the current anomalies for Northern Hemisphere snow cover for the month of September. 

 

Here is a comparison to September 2009. I'm using 2009 because it was a cold winter:

 

Here is through October 15, 2023 snow departures map:

 

Here is through October 15, 2009 snow departures map:

 

So, whatever Steve D is looking at according to the data we're a tad ahead of 2009 in EurAsia on snow growth in Oct. We all know 2009 was really cold. 

 

 

Edited October 16, 2023 by Grace

[1816]

2 minutes ago, Grace said:

FWIW, here are the current anomalies for Northern Hemisphere snow cover for the month of September. 

 

Here is a comparison to September 2009. I'm using 2009 because it was a cold winter:

 

Here is through October 15, 2023 snow departures map:

 

Here is through October 15, 2009 snow departures map:

 

So, whatever Steve D is looking at according to the data we're a tad ahead of 2009 in EurAsia on snow growth in Oct. We all know 2009 was really cold. 

 

 

So what we really need to be worried about is the snow cover at Yellowstone national park. Cool. 

[Grace]

 

[NEPAsnow]

3 hours ago, Grace said:

 

First, the Siberian snow-cover theory...I just don't have a lot of confidence in it.

Second,  Per that theory it's about snow gain throughout the month of October. Why would Steve talk about that on October 15th?

he did say what could change but didn't trust what the models were saying 15 days out regarding snow cover. if it did change it would affect the colder air staying longer and higher ratio snows

[so_whats_happening]

The ENSO progression has started the westward movement in earnest over the past month. 1+2 continue to cool pretty decently 3 for the most part holding its own and 3.4 has experienced a bouncing back to the anomalies it had nearly a month ago (~+1.7) 4 has just been steadily increasing over the past month or so as well.

The positive IOD (Eastern IO cool area, Western IO warm area) has definitely strengthened and we may contend with 2019 and 1997 values in due time. This should help start to push forcing out of 150-170E region to near the dateline or east of there depending on just how much more warming can occur coming up here. The velocity potential maps are still a skew but so far this October we are taking on a much more typical El Nino look of stronger +VP over the IO/ Maritime (this year it seems to be skewed still further west than your typical placement for Strong/Super El Nino). It is important to note that SST's are still extremely warm in the western/central PAC relative to areas further east. Region 4 is sitting at 30.1C while region 3 is sitting at only 27C this allows forcing to be much further west compared to years like 1997 where region 4 was near was around 29.2C and region 3 was near 27.7C much closer in temperature meant -VP was allowed much further east.

You can check out the weekly OISST anomalies for each region here and NOAA uses ERSST which is about the same if not ever so slightly cooler than OISST anomalies. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for (goes back to 1981).

Should be an interesting time watching how things evolve in the next 2 or so weeks as we have some nice WWB action taking place. I am unsure what a west propagating WWB event means as they typically slowly progress eastward in time but with this being so far west I expect region 4 to continue to warm and 3.4 should also continue to respond to some warming.

[so_whats_happening]

Just now, so_whats_happening said:

The ENSO progression has started the westward movement in earnest over the past month. 1+2 continue to cool pretty decently 3 for the most part holding its own and 3.4 has experienced a bouncing back to the anomalies it had nearly a month ago (~+1.7) 4 has just been steadily increasing over the past month or so as well.

The positive IOD (Eastern IO cool area, Western IO warm area) has definitely strengthened and we may contend with 2019 and 1997 values in due time. This should help start to push forcing out of 150-170E region to near the dateline or east of there depending on just how much more warming can occur coming up here. The velocity potential maps are still a skew but so far this October we are taking on a much more typical El Nino look of stronger +VP over the IO/ Maritime (this year it seems to be skewed still further west than your typical placement for Strong/Super El Nino). It is important to note that SST's are still extremely warm in the western/central PAC relative to areas further east. Region 4 is sitting at 30.1C while region 3 is sitting at only 27C this allows forcing to be much further west compared to years like 1997 where region 4 was near was around 29.2C and region 3 was near 27.7C much closer in temperature meant -VP was allowed much further east.

You can check out the weekly OISST anomalies for each region here and NOAA uses ERSST which is about the same if not ever so slightly cooler than OISST anomalies. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for (goes back to 1981).

Should be an interesting time watching how things evolve in the next 2 or so weeks as we have some nice WWB action taking place. I am unsure what a west propagating WWB event means as they typically slowly progress eastward in time but with this being so far west I expect region 4 to continue to warm and 3.4 should also continue to respond to some warming.

To add onto this say we do get up to super status in region 3.4 we may still end up cooler in region 3.4/3/ 1+2 than we were in 2015/16 and 1997. 2015 already had a westward lean to -VP in a typical Super Nino look which tends to be centered around 130-150W, 2015-16 was around 150-170W; this could end up even further west if that were to be a scenario. 

Anyway basing solely on the idea this stays in strong or even gets to super here are the composites since 1950. I combined strong and super as there are just not enough of either individually to give a solid idea and with the way we have more western lean to the -VP thus far this certainly may not act like 1997-98 did or 82-83.

So basing it off this we should expect a warm December ( maybe not nearly as intense as 2015?) to a rebounding winter like January and February should be solid even with Aleutian low placement. The balance of that to -NAO will probably be the determining factor for what is the driver and what is just sort of there.