Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[MaineJay]

52 minutes ago, Wally Ho said:

“Winter” has entered its final crash and burn, leaving us with shattered dreams, heavy hearts and memories of what might have been.

Man, that aged well... 

I get the whole "sticking to convictions" thing, but gotta know when to sell a bad investment. 

I do rather enjoy the seasonal forecasts, and I do believe a lot of time and effort is put in to them, but man, seems like a lesson in futility.   

I always say, reality and truth are too boring for social media.  If you want to get clicks, you have to let people's imaginations run wild.

[StretchCT]

Proper way to start a spring.  Skip the 35-50 degrees and rain go straight to 60s and 70s.  Except for you Maine, you'll still get snow.

[StretchCT]

On 2/3/2024 at 12:24 PM, JDClapper said:

Echoing MJ's statement, the long range is humbling. Even to those who we respect more than mock.  Of course, Cranky (I mean content) is usually cryptic enough to be read multiple ways.  I read it a mid month change as being from warm and dry to cold and snowy, for me.   Technically... my first 12 days in Feb averaged +9.38 and had 0.12" of precip, no snow. Then there was the 13th snow storm with 11". Since then we've had 2.5" of snow and averaging 2.1 degrees below normal.  My results may not be your results and that pattern change seems to be over. Cranky didn't specify that the pattern change would last into March, but when you think pattern change, you think more than 10 days. 

 

 

Edited February 22 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

While yesterday's extended EPS was a rock, today we get some Twix bars. Shows a more up and down pattern where things like this can happen

(put Ted Lasso throwing darts GIF here when back home, then post tomorrows completely different look with a gif of  someone missing the dartboard completely)

[1816]

6 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Man, that aged well... 

I get the whole "sticking to convictions" thing, but gotta know when to sell a bad investment. 

I do rather enjoy the seasonal forecasts, and I do believe a lot of time and effort is put in to them, but man, seems like a lesson in futility.   

I always say, reality and truth are too boring for social media.  If you want to get clicks, you have to let people's imaginations run wild.

Yeah I kind of feel bad for those who work hard on those seasonal forecasts. Seems like at the end of the day it's just a colossal waste of time. 

[SNOWBOB11]

In all fairness I think this winter was one of the more difficult winters to put out a seasonal forecast. We were coming off a triple La Niña going into a strong Nino which is unprecedented. One would expect mild conditions with a super Nino to dominate but then the LR models had a switch to a colder Jan-Mar.

There’s always the chance in seasonal forecasting it can bust but there’s also times when it doesn’t and things work out more or less as expected. I think it’s unfair to say it’s a waste of time when things don’t go as expected.

I think there’s a lot to learn from how this winter turned out as a hole even though it was a pretty terrible winter for snow lovers.

Time will tell how the transition to La Niña will affect next winter but I always say I’ll take my shot at a Nina over a Nino any time. At least for my areas.

[SnowloverSid]

On 2/21/2024 at 11:17 AM, Hoosier said:

You love/hate/want/don't want to see it.  

Six weeks away— Saturday, April 6– or, six years and six weeks away: Saturday, April 6, 2030. The long- range forecast for one is as hard to discern as the other!

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

11 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Echoing MJ's statement, the long range is humbling. Even to those who we respect more than mock.  Of course, Cranky (I mean content) is usually cryptic enough to be read multiple ways.  I read it a mid month change as being from warm and dry to cold and snowy, for me.   Technically... my first 12 days in Feb averaged +9.38 and had 0.12" of precip, no snow. Then there was the 13th snow storm with 11". Since then we've had 2.5" of snow and averaging 2.1 degrees below normal.  My results may not be your results and that pattern change seems to be over. Cranky didn't specify that the pattern change would last into March, but when you think pattern change, you think more than 10 days. 

 

 

Just as a fwiw Stretch, really think that will be the new norm going forward, until the you- know- what in the western Pac stops growing, and dwindles. It is just over powering the entire northern hemisphere. It is killing the look we need in the GOA . And on and on. It is translating east. The old 6-8 week patterns, aren’t happening in winter anymore. Negative NAO’s  are not going to be sustained  when they do occur. And warmer oceans. Not doing the CC thing at all. It just is what it is now. Shorter patterns will rule. El Nina, La Nina, neutral, doesn’t overcome the base state. Been bitching since ‘15 bout the Pac.  Looks that used to work LR aren’t anymore. LR’s have a prayer of being correct  when they start factoring that in or when that changes.

And the smoking Gulf.   Fire city. Heat pump. Temps were 99 in July this year.Unbelievable! That only cools down so much. Has to effect .

[Psu1313]

1 hour ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Just as a fwiw Stretch, really think that will be the new norm going forward, until the you- know- what in the western Pac stops growing, and dwindles. It is just over powering the entire northern hemisphere. It is killing the look we need in the GOA . And on and on. It is translating east. The old 6-8 week patterns, aren’t happening in winter anymore. Negative NAO’s  are not going to be sustained  when they do occur. And warmer oceans. Not doing the CC thing at all. It just is what it is now. Shorter patterns will rule. El Nina, La Nina, neutral, doesn’t overcome the base state. Been bitching since ‘15 bout the Pac.  Looks that used to work LR aren’t anymore. LR’s have a prayer of being correct  when they start factoring that in or when that changes.

And the smoking Gulf.   Fire city. Heat pump. Temps were 99 in July this year.Unbelievable! That only cools down so much. Has to effect .

I'm going to disagree with this. So the last two years have been rough, but prior to that, we had winters that lasted longer because we ended up with a ridge look in the GOA. 

I agree with the 6-8 week pattern piece as that hasn't been the case in the last 10 years. Where I disagree is I actually believe we have seen longer patterns that are harder to break than shorter patterns. Think about this winter. Patterns are locking in and not changing like they used to. 

You allude to the Gulf of Mexico, but the bigger issue has been the warm Atlantic. The Gulf will allow for more moisture to be transported north and with a bit more warmth, but that meeting with cold will end up meaning more BIG storms though places that are marginal are going to end up as losers more often than not. 

Basically, this was an El Nino year that was a bit on roids. I prefer el Nino, but just like 97-98, this year didn't really work out for much of the east, and it was a bit warmer as well. If we get La Nina next year. 

[so_whats_happening]

15 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Proper way to start a spring.  Skip the 35-50 degrees and rain go straight to 60s and 70s.  Except for you Maine, you'll still get snow.

bring it on!

[Undertakerson2.0]

18 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Echoing MJ's statement, the long range is humbling. Even to those who we respect more than mock.  Of course, Cranky (I mean content) is usually cryptic enough to be read multiple ways.  I read it a mid month change as being from warm and dry to cold and snowy, for me.   Technically... my first 12 days in Feb averaged +9.38 and had 0.12" of precip, no snow. Then there was the 13th snow storm with 11". Since then we've had 2.5" of snow and averaging 2.1 degrees below normal.  My results may not be your results and that pattern change seems to be over. Cranky didn't specify that the pattern change would last into March, but when you think pattern change, you think more than 10 days. 

 

 

These days, local mets say "pattern change" even if it's more like a three to four day change from what we'd been seeing. Drive me a bit crazy when they do that. 

Some wild retrograding system showing up in the Lr GFS Op runs. I might start a thread for it - if only to reduce the chances it will actually bring snow. Then again, we nee the tulip topper snow to "end it all", like we typically experience late winter or early spring. 

 

 

Edited February 23 by Undertakerson2.0

[Snowgeek93]

11 hours ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

In all fairness I think this winter was one of the more difficult winters to put out a seasonal forecast. We were coming off a triple La Niña going into a strong Nino which is unprecedented. One would expect mild conditions with a super Nino to dominate but then the LR models had a switch to a colder Jan-Mar.

There’s always the chance in seasonal forecasting it can bust but there’s also times when it doesn’t and things work out more or less as expected. I think it’s unfair to say it’s a waste of time when things don’t go as expected.

I think there’s a lot to learn from how this winter turned out as a hole even though it was a pretty terrible winter for snow lovers.

Time will tell how the transition to La Niña will affect next winter but I always say I’ll take my shot at a Nina over a Nino any time. At least for my areas.

El Nino winters usually suck for us snow lovers around here so I'm not at all surprised by how this season has played out. I was expecting this season to be a lousy one and it lived up to my expectations lol. With La Nina returning, one can only hope next winter should fair better around here.

What we really don't need is a pattern change sometime in March where we get stuck in a cold/wintry pattern that lasts well into spring.

Also, developing La Nina summers are usually good for us here (1998, 2007, 2010, 2016 and 2020). All of them were hot, dry summers for the region. 

[StretchCT]

11 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

until the you- know- what in the western Pac stops growing, and dwindles. It is just over powering the entire northern hemisphere.

Excellent point. But why don't we see people adjusting their outlooks to this?

 

11 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

The old 6-8 week patterns, aren’t happening in winter anymore.

Gonna disagree on this one.  Seems the entire winter is one pattern with a few days off from time to time. Unless that's what you were saying, in which case I agree. 

11 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Negative NAO’s  are not going to be sustained  when they do occur.

I think this graphic demonstrates whats going on with the neg NAO

On a closer level, we see the NAO had very few sustained negative periods,(2010, 97-98) and few sustained positive (2018, 89-91).  It's mostly back and forth.  But the chart above shows that trend is stairstepping towards a more positive trend. 

4 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

These days, local mets say "pattern change" even if it's more like a three to four day change from what we'd been seeing. Drive me a bit crazy when they do that. 

Agree.  Click bait essentially. Everything these days on TV is First Alert.  My wife's favorite TV channel since I've known her, the ONLY one she watches, is being turned off now because every forth word out of their mouths is Alert.  "Our First Alert today is for colder temperatures". Really?  

 

9 hours ago, Psu1313 said:

Where I disagree is I actually believe we have seen longer patterns that are harder to break than shorter patterns. Think about this winter. Patterns are locking in and not changing like they used to. 

Said better than I.

 

Edited February 23 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Since it's almost the end of Feb, lets see how the NWS did

[Arctic Outbreak]

1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

Since it's almost the end of Feb, lets see how the NWS did

Pretty damn good! They undershot the heat in the Upper Midwest but who could have really foreseen that? 

[TLChip]

The pac has turned into a giant bully, I agree with that. 

The gulf is hot but I don’t think it does much for our cold up north, just a better strong moisture transport, cutters will trend warmer but we’re always wet with those. I believe the gulf is on a 5 year streak with RI hurricanes turning into cat 5s in 24-48. 

This year the Atlantic finally got stormy and cooled off better then the past 2 years.

Mid Atlantic prefer a weak El Niño after that it’s too strong and gets us warmer on average. Even 2021s Nina gave us a month of cold as well though. 

The LR, that typically trends towards warmth but strung us along most of this winter with the promise of cold is coming. 

If you take away the 2010 NAO in the lower chart stretch posted, that’s a brutal trend. 

The real kicker is this, our biggest snows are still mostly within the 1985-current range. Less prolonged cold but the right bomb storms are dropping massive QPF. 

Where does this lead us in the future, I have no clue 🤷, but I never really did either. 

[SNOWBOB11]

Not sure where to put this but I came across this site that has different teleconnections and ENSO states and how they affect weather in NA. Sometimes I find it hard to remember or understand how each one shifts the jet either in our favour or not so I find this helpful. It’s possible it’s been posted already somewhere else but here it is anyway.

https://frontierweather.dtn.com/WinterClimateDrivers.pdf

[so_whats_happening]

6 hours ago, StretchCT said:

On a closer level, we see the NAO had very few sustained negative periods,(2010, 97-98) and few sustained positive (2018, 89-91).  It's mostly back and forth.  But the chart above shows that trend is stairstepping towards a more positive trend. 

 

 

Would love to see a JJA of the NAO.

[Arctic Outbreak]

Does anyone know how the other side of the globe fared (i.e. Europe and Siberia)? Was all of the cold trapped over there or did it just not exist anywhere? 

[Undertakerson2.0]

17 minutes ago, Arctic Outbreak said:

Does anyone know how the other side of the globe fared (i.e. Europe and Siberia)? Was all of the cold trapped over there or did it just not exist anywhere? 

I do know AK has had a pretty good time of making cold and snow this season. 

[Arctic Outbreak]

5 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

I do know AK has had a pretty good time of making cold and snow this season. 

Snow yes, cold not as much

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

23 hours ago, Psu1313 said:

I'm going to disagree with this. So the last two years have been rough, but prior to that, we had winters that lasted longer because we ended up with a ridge look in the GOA. 

I agree with the 6-8 week pattern piece as that hasn't been the case in the last 10 years. Where I disagree is I actually believe we have seen longer patterns that are harder to break than shorter patterns. Think about this winter. Patterns are locking in and not changing like they used to. 

You allude to the Gulf of Mexico, but the bigger issue has been the warm Atlantic. The Gulf will allow for more moisture to be transported north and with a bit more warmth, but that meeting with cold will end up meaning more BIG storms though places that are marginal are going to end up as losers more often than not. 

Basically, this was an El Nino year that was a bit on roids. I prefer el Nino, but just like 97-98, this year didn't really work out for much of the east, and it was a bit warmer as well. If we get La Nina next year. 

I actually think we agree for the most part. Yes to the warm Atlantic, another long beef of mine! Dont agree about the Gulf point. But neither is the big point. Warm pool is. PAC is killing us. Cud care less  about if it is Nino or Nina. What is  kicking both their butts is the growing beast. We need to stop relying on old Nina/Nino bs, strength of either, cuz neither are working anymore to forecast winters in  US. MJO? Same. 

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

14 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Excellent point. But why don't we see people adjusting their outlooks to this?

 

Gonna disagree on this one.  Seems the entire winter is one pattern with a few days off from time to time. Unless that's what you were saying, in which case I agree. 

I think this graphic demonstrates whats going on with the neg NAO

On a closer level, we see the NAO had very few sustained negative periods,(2010, 97-98) and few sustained positive (2018, 89-91).  It's mostly back and forth.  But the chart above shows that trend is stairstepping towards a more positive trend. 

Agree.  Click bait essentially. Everything these days on TV is First Alert.  My wife's favorite TV channel since I've known her, the ONLY one she watches, is being turned off now because every forth word out of their mouths is Alert.  "Our First Alert today is for colder temperatures". Really?  

 

Said better than I.

 

Bud, be careful , real careful with those charts. Really deceiving. Very similar to the term average. If you are trying to find data showing sustained neg nao  with no variance, ok. But that doesn’t happen and wasn't my point. In the old days , a good neg nao would post up, wane, go positive, but revert back to the neg state. Then wash, rinse, repeat.  Now, not gonna happen cuz of the Pac Puke- another term that was stolen from me and apparently used on other forums. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

7 hours ago, Arctic Outbreak said:

Snow yes, cold not as much

I think they were cold enough for snow from November to Present Day. Early Feb they were talking about "dangerous levels" of both. (snowiest Nov in over 60 years and has not really abated except for a two week period around the New Year date which lead directly to a record cold end of Jan cold snap) 

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/weather/2024/01/26/anchorage-cold-snap-expected-to-continue-through-months-end/

[Anthonyweather]

A winter that was still overall light on the energy bills with really only a week or two of “arctic air”

 

never really had super cold stuff, but for El Niño year we were able to just about get to average on NADS systems. Roughly getting to 24-30” depending on locations in the Lehigh valley (average is 32”) 

 

im certainly ready for spring and baseball! Purchased a 16 game partial season ticket for the Phillies this year!

Edited February 24 by Anthonyweather