Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[RobB]

38 minutes ago, Tater said:

Pretty much every one you've posted is a big red blob over the whole US. We've pretty much memorized it at this point. 😛

LOL.....Too true...

[so_whats_happening]

On 2/11/2024 at 9:56 AM, so_whats_happening said:

Oh boy I do hate to be pessimistic here but anywhere south of the turnpike in PA (outside of elevation) at this point I think it just about done with winter. Ill hold off until we get closer in time to the 18-20th system but it aint lookin good. We did manage to hit double digit snows though this year so that is something of note as we slowly rise up again.

Bring on the spring time weather at this point.

Sneaky little systems here and there but I think this still holds true. 22nd system may be just a bit too far north for us. The only other time frame would be about the first week of March with cold reloading in Alaska/ NW Canada could be interesting to watch.

Again I personally can't appreciate a snowstorm and cold in March, it has happened so many times before though. Lets see what shakes out.

[1816]

7 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Sneaky little systems here and there but I think this still holds true. 22nd system may be just a bit too far north for us. The only other time frame would be about the first week of March with cold reloading in Alaska/ NW Canada could be interesting to watch.

Again I personally can't appreciate a snowstorm and cold in March, it has happened so many times before though. Lets see what shakes out.

I'd be interested down the road to hear from you and a couple other of the long range posters what the heck happened here. A post mortem of this winter where most forecasters and all models got it so very wrong. I don't get too worked up about it one way or another but this has to be pretty disappointing for a lot of people. 

[MaineJay]

1 hour ago, 1816 said:

I'd be interested down the road to hear from you and a couple other of the long range posters what the heck happened here. A post mortem of this winter where most forecasters and all models got it so very wrong. I don't get too worked up about it one way or another but this has to be pretty disappointing for a lot of people. 

A lot of folks seemed to be on the modoki, 2009-10 train from what I had seen.

[1816]

1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

A lot of folks seemed to be on the modoki, 2009-10 train from what I had seen.

Yeah and the models too. Long range models showed the epic patterns for Jan and feb. . Then the actual models once we got close in time. But with all the agreement it just vanished. Crazy. 

 

[StLweatherjunkie]

On 2/16/2024 at 7:02 AM, 1816 said:

I'd be interested down the road to hear from you and a couple other of the long range posters what the heck happened here. A post mortem of this winter where most forecasters and all models got it so very wrong. I don't get too worked up about it one way or another but this has to be pretty disappointing for a lot of people. 

There was a nice trough off the east coast, just too far east for anyone to benefit.

Compared to last winter, the lower heights over Eastern Russia and the Bering Sea was very similar and it's hard to get sustained winter weather with a flood of Pacific air.

Considering the radical changes in ENSO over the past year, the synoptic pattern is remarkable similar everywhere but the Northeast Pacific. Ridging over the Gulf of St. Lawrence moved 25 deg longitude west to be over northern Ontario (royally bleeping my winter). The western conus trough and troughing south of Greenland also shifted west a similar amount. Really the only feature that changed as much as ENSO is last year's northern Pacific ridge. This feature appears to have split with a portion moving over Canada and a portion over the NW Pacific Ocean.

[StLweatherjunkie]

On 2/16/2024 at 7:02 AM, 1816 said:

I'd be interested down the road to hear from you and a couple other of the long range posters what the heck happened here. A post mortem of this winter where most forecasters and all models got it so very wrong. I don't get too worked up about it one way or another but this has to be pretty disappointing for a lot of people. 

Also, FWIW this winter's pattern ended up being very similar to the 1997-98 El Nino pattern so any analog blend that didn't heavily weight 1997-98 wouldn't work out too well. The fingerprints of almost 30 years of climate change are pretty obvious too with the warm spots being warmer and the cool spots being MUCH less cool.

Edited February 18 by StLweatherjunkie

[George Acton]

Yep, 2023-24, has behaved more like a Canonical El Nino. Very strong east based with a persistent PAC jet similar to 97-98. Bouts of cold did open the window for snow in the east when the timing has been right. Agree, for the most part, this has been a tough winter pattern. Alaska on, the other hand, has been having a very good winter pattern with record snow and cold. Wow, Anchorage, over 100 inches of snow and counting, especially when the PAC air flooded the lower 48.

[StLweatherjunkie]

27 minutes ago, George Acton said:

Yep, 2023-24, has behaved more like a Canonical El Nino. Very strong east based with a persistent PAC jet similar to 97-98. Bouts of cold did open the window for snow in the east when the timing has been right. Agree, for the most part, this has been a tough winter pattern. Alaska on, the other hand, has been having a very good winter pattern with record snow and cold. Wow, Anchorage, over 100 inches of snow and counting, especially when the PAC air flooded the lower 48.

More like bouts of temperature near seasonal averages that people perceive as 'cold' because the remainder of the winter is so warm. I wish I were exaggerating when I say that except for a week in mid-January, temperatures have been persistently above normal for the entire winter.

Winter 2023-24: a week long unless you live in Alaska, the only place on the entire continent to experience anything close to a real winter. Also FWIW, the winter season hasn't been record cold in Alaska, but snowfall in Anchorage has set multiple records. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Real or not - that is one heck of a hump 

[StretchCT]

Mentioned this in the NEMA Obs but we haven't had a temp in the single digits yet this year.  At our local reporting stations at Oxford and Danbury, there's never been a year with no single digits, but that's only 20 years of data.  Going down to Bridgeport on literally next to the 40° sound, stats back to 1940, only 10 seasons didn't make it to single digits.  8 of those are since 1998.   Hartford going back 100 years, 2001-2002 didn't break into single digits.  Before that 36-37 and 31-32. Last night was the first below normal low temp in Feb. 

There's a couple of ops including next weekend to break 10, but March is coming and it warms up fast.  Since 2000, Hartford area has only seen 2 storms in March exceed 9".  These are your mean temps.

 

Edited February 18 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

BTW if I don't get another snowstorm, I blame that other site we used to be on that just reopened.  Great timing there.

[Hoosier]

Would have rather had the cold pattern focus from mid Feb into early March.  Now I'm concerned it gets pushed back farther into March lol

[George Acton]

At this juncture of resolvement, I believe our area in Northern MD is climbing out of winter. Further north and west it will hang on longer, but it is probably done here. We came close to normal seasonal snow but fell short. On to spring!!

[Grace]

On 2/17/2024 at 7:01 PM, StLweatherjunkie said:

Also, FWIW this winter's pattern ended up being very similar to the 1997-98 El Nino pattern so any analog blend that didn't heavily weight 1997-98 wouldn't work out too well. The fingerprints of almost 30 years of climate change are pretty obvious too with the warm spots being warmer and the cool spots being MUCH less cool.

 

The 500mb displayed is exactly what you look expect with a strong borderline east-base super El nino. The forcing out west though a curve ball & yet had an east-base result. This was a very difficult forecast with how abnormal so many factors were. 

I think the late streghtening of the El Nino instead of an early peak was the controlling factor when all is said & done. 

I'm so excited for another LA Nina while the PDO is already strongly negative. We might give 2011-12 a run for its money on a warm, sucky winter. If 500mb pattern is similar to that we no doubt will be warmer. 1973-74 has to be a top analog though. Next Spring severe weather might be through the roof.

Wish we could get 2-3 consecutive neutral ENSO's. 😐 

Edited February 19 by Grace

[Arctic Outbreak]

1 hour ago, Grace said:

 

The 500mb displayed is exactly what you look expect with a strong borderline east-base super El nino. The forcing out west though a curve ball & yet had an east-base result. This was a very difficult forecast with how abnormal so many factors were. 

I think the late streghtening of the El Nino instead of an early peak was the controlling factor when all is said & done. 

I'm so excited for another LA Nina while the PDO is already strongly negative. We might give 2011-12 a run for its money on a warm, sucky winter. If 500mb pattern is similar to that we no doubt will be warmer. 1973-74 has to be a top analog though. Next Spring severe weather might be through the roof.

Wish we could get 2-3 consecutive neutral ENSO's. 😐 

I don't think neutral ENSO is a thing anymore. 

[so_whats_happening]

7 hours ago, Grace said:

 

The 500mb displayed is exactly what you look expect with a strong borderline east-base super El nino. The forcing out west though a curve ball & yet had an east-base result. This was a very difficult forecast with how abnormal so many factors were. 

I think the late streghtening of the El Nino instead of an early peak was the controlling factor when all is said & done. 

I'm so excited for another LA Nina while the PDO is already strongly negative. We might give 2011-12 a run for its money on a warm, sucky winter. If 500mb pattern is similar to that we no doubt will be warmer. 1973-74 has to be a top analog though. Next Spring severe weather might be through the roof.

Wish we could get 2-3 consecutive neutral ENSO's. 😐 

I think the east based aspect was probably more of the important factor versus relative strength. Hindsight is always 20/20! This developed almost identically to 97-98 as an east based El Nino yet did not blossom in the same manner SST wise, the -PDO was probably the limiting factor in that. The only other year that experienced a strong -PDO like this during an ENSO event was 1972-73, even then though the PDO was able to relax closer to neutral during that event where as this just did not. There just seemed to be a weaker connection with this one than previous EP events. I know many think MEI may be flawed but it did truly show what the potential strength of the ENSO was like overall, I think SST's being as high as they are globally gave it that extra umphh to just barely breach that 2.0 level. Hence why I think this was more about the location of the developing Nino versus the relative strength that played a role. I would have to look through and see what other years were east based in origination but at lesser extent of SST anomaly wise (if such exist).

I think the death knell overall was probably the +IOD though. Both 2015-16 and 2009-10 had weakened IOD states even though 15-16 became a super and 09-10 ended up modoki and almost similar levels SSTA wise. Both years did rather well in the Mid Atlantic but when we look at years like 1972-73, 1982-83 (this was an odd one maybe because this ended up being a later blooming ENSO event?), 1991-92, 1997-98, 2019-20 (warm neutral year but abysmal snowfall and warm), and this year. We see all these years, except 82-83, had exceptionally low snowfall. All developed generally in an EP fashion, 19-20 should have been a good year being warm neutral but the near record IOD state I think is what really did it in. EP Nino events are just not good for us in the east and a +IOD is just not good for us as well so the combo really did us in.

This is just my take on the situation, Im sure we will find out more in the coming months to what extent a lot of these factors played.

5 hours ago, Arctic Outbreak said:

I don't think neutral ENSO is a thing anymore. 

 

Im honestly unsure whether we can speak to that as an actual thing yet. We have seen stretches like this in the past going from Nina to Nino to Nina so it is not unheard of. While I do wish we could experience a few neutral years in between we really need to do something about the Maritime Continent SST's they just did not cool this year.

[so_whats_happening]

On 2/17/2024 at 8:01 PM, StLweatherjunkie said:

Also, FWIW this winter's pattern ended up being very similar to the 1997-98 El Nino pattern so any analog blend that didn't heavily weight 1997-98 wouldn't work out too well. The fingerprints of almost 30 years of climate change are pretty obvious too with the warm spots being warmer and the cool spots being MUCH less cool.

 

1982-83, 1972-73, 1991-92 all very similar

2019-20 while weak ENSO had a rough 500mb pattern for the CONUS.

All these years had a rather strong +IOD as well. Bad combo of EP style event and +IOD.

[Undertakerson2.0]

We have some organic method support for an Early March wintery event here in the East.

After that, might as well make a bouquet for Persephone's arrival. 

[SnowloverSid]

2 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

We have some organic method support for an Early March wintery event here in the East.

After that, might as well make a bouquet for Persephone's arrival. 

Greek and Roman mythology always confused me, so I just did research on Persephone, and I read that she was a fertility goddess. I remember the Roman equivalent, Proserpina, from ninth grade Latin class. The name Proserpina made me think of the word “prosperity.” I pronounced the goddess’s name “ pros-er- PEEN-uh, and my teacher, a sarcastic person, said sharply, “No, it’s proh- SER-pi-nuh. I hope I can keep it straight now.

[StLweatherjunkie]

I still intend to reply to the posts above, but haven't had the time yet.

Just stopping by to point out that the second multi-day severe outbreak this February seems likely to start next Tuesday, stay vigilant down south ... Looks like a pretty nasty stretch of weather on the way:

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

I still intend to reply to the posts above, but haven't had the time yet.

Just stopping by to point out that the second multi-day severe outbreak this February seems likely to start next Tuesday, stay vigilant down south ... Looks like a pretty nasty stretch of weather on the way:

Definitely a little interested in this one.

[Hoosier]

You love/hate/want/don't want to see it.  

[Cary67]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

You love/hate/want/don't want to see it.  

Looks like a snow map from last year's La Nina 

Edited February 21 by Cary67

[Wally Ho]

On 2/6/2024 at 11:30 AM, Pghsnow said:

 

“Winter” has entered its final crash and burn, leaving us with shattered dreams, heavy hearts and memories of what might have been.