Arctic Outbreak Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Beginning to accept we're now in the lotto phase of "winter" and winter winter has come and gone, seems like just yesterday we were all discussing reading the "backloaded" winter discussions which never came to fruition. While I'm not an advocate of making predictions you literally have no idea about, those who cancelled winter in December were finally right this year lol Early winter cancellers have actually been correct two straight years now. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 (edited) I expect some cold in March (not the entire month by any means) so I think those wanting winter to be over in the next 1-2 weeks and quickly transition to spring are probably not going to get their wish. A number of the stronger Ninos have also had good March snows somewhere, so that may well happen this year too though it's possible it is north/west of where the majority of posters on this board are located. Edited February 13 by Hoosier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 MSP is due in March or April 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 12 minutes ago, Cary67 said: MSP is due in March or April I wonder what's more likely. MSP reaching 25" for the season (currently 7.3") or me getting to use my snowblower for just the 2nd time this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2/13 12Z NAEFS: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: I wonder what's more likely. MSP reaching 25" for the season (currently 7.3") or me getting to use my snowblower for just the 2nd time this season. Toss up.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowloverSid Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/12/2024 at 12:38 PM, RobB said: 2/12 12Z NAEFS: If this keeps up, 1984’s standard for mildest February in Binghamton, NY could be challenged. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted February 14 Meteorologist Share Posted February 14 7 hours ago, Cary67 said: Toss up.lol This is the price I pay after having measured over 100" last year. It doesn't help that it's been an awful season for outdoor recreation, too. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2/14 0Z NAEFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 (edited) I typically put very little weight in the longer range CFS, but it's almost like pulling teeth to get it to have this much blue at 4 weeks. Extended Euro also showing a below average pattern for much of the country. Edited February 14 by Hoosier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2/14 12Z NAEFS: 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 (edited) Unbelievable!! Twice in one winter! Never underestimate the power of the groundhog! WINTER IS OVER!!! And models are pure crap! 😃 Edited February 15 by Grace 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 hours ago, Hoosier said: I typically put very little weight in the longer range CFS, but it's almost like pulling teeth to get it to have this much blue at 4 weeks. Extended Euro also showing a below average pattern for much of the country. I believe the groundhog over any model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, Grace said: WINTER IS OVER!!! I’m not sure it ever began.😅 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 At the beginning of the season, I sat here thinking that a high would establish itself in Alaska in January and be pretty darn stubborn. I couldn't have been more wrong. Now the only question left is...MJO 4,5,6 caused the most winter for the eastern half of the country. Is there a chance that we come across COD and restart in 3, 4? Would that matter? The reality is that the Pacific is rocking without something drastic changing, we have the next 10ish days and then it's probably turning to spring south of the Mason Dixon and in a lot of places in the midwest. I'm betting on a lot of stories about early blooms from media outlets. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted February 15 Meteorologist Share Posted February 15 (edited) The 500mb pattern has been rough since Spring across NA. When the Archipelago suffers from warmth we don't do well across the US as that is where our cold originates when we get these deep polar plunges. Edited February 15 by so_whats_happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted February 15 Meteorologist Share Posted February 15 (edited) 4 hours ago, Grace said: Unbelievable!! Twice in one winter! Never underestimate the power of the groundhog! WINTER IS OVER!!! And models are pure crap! 😃 Even with two bouts of reversals there seems to have been a disconnect from 10mb pattern reaching down to the troposphere. I can't appreciate cold spring temps (if that does actually occur) like I would during winter months. The northern portion of the country near the lakes is on fire this winter. It does tend to be warm there during strong ninos but this is alot warmer so these marginal temp storms have suffered from just a bit too much warmth for areas to really cash in on snowfall. Even with this last storm across the east many areas are still a solid 50% below average in the snowfall department with time dwindling, unfortunately. I think the mid atlantic is about the only area with close to average snows so far and it is not all of the mid atlantic. No issue on overall precip though through much of the east. I wanna say the ground was able to freeze a little bit back in early January with that cold snap otherwise it has just been a muddy mess, I do hope the bugs and ticks aren't bad again this year. Edited February 15 by so_whats_happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted February 15 Meteorologist Share Posted February 15 (edited) 12 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Even with two bouts of reversals there seems to have been a disconnect from 10mb pattern reaching down to the troposphere. I can't appreciate cold spring temps (if that does actually occur) like I would during winter months. The northern portion of the country near the lakes is on fire this winter. It does tend to be warm there during strong ninos but this is alot warmer so these marginal temp storms have suffered from just a bit too much warmth for areas to really cash in on snowfall. Even with this last storm across the east many areas are still a solid 50% below average in the snowfall department with time dwindling, unfortunately. I think the mid atlantic is about the only area with close to average snows so far and it is not all of the mid atlantic. No issue on overall precip though through much of the east. I wanna say the ground was able to freeze a little bit back in early January with that cold snap otherwise it has just been a muddy mess, I do hope the bugs and ticks aren't bad again this year. Yea the only areas that are above average are across AR, TN, a little of eastern KY. Kansas through southern IO and Eastern Nebraska (they had a rough one early on) and blotches around the mid Atlantic. I wish it showed as percentages but it is what it is. Edited February 15 by so_whats_happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 hours ago, Grace said: Unbelievable!! Twice in one winter! Never underestimate the power of the groundhog! WINTER IS OVER!!! And models are pure crap! 😃 Unbelievable how bad these "updated" 🙄 models have been 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Severe weather season should have no problem getting started in March 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/13/2024 at 12:09 PM, Hoosier said: I wonder what's more likely. MSP reaching 25" for the season (currently 7.3") or me getting to use my snowblower for just the 2nd time this season. North side of MSP received 6.9" last night. They upgraded from a WWA to WSW. Feeling more confident they will surpass Chicago before season ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/14/2024 at 1:04 PM, Hoosier said: I typically put very little weight in the longer range CFS, but it's almost like pulling teeth to get it to have this much blue at 4 weeks. Extended Euro also showing a below average pattern for much of the country. Unless it comes with a blockbuster storm (a la '93, '08), I couldn't care less about March cold. Give me an early, warm spring over 30s/40s & small snow events that melt 5 minutes later. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 As the NAEFS goes into the beginning of meteorological Spring, this will be my last post of it here 🙂 2/15 12Z NAEFS: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 10 hours ago, Cary67 said: North side of MSP received 6.9" last night. They upgraded from a WWA to WSW. Feeling more confident they will surpass Chicago before season ends Right now it's 20.0" for Chicago to 14.2" for Minneapolis. Chicago has had the lead since January 6, but obviously plenty of time before this is decided. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted February 16 Moderators Share Posted February 16 4 hours ago, RobB said: As the NAEFS goes into the beginning of meteorological Spring, this will be my last post of it here 🙂 Pretty much every one you've posted is a big red blob over the whole US. We've pretty much memorized it at this point. 😛 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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