Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[MaineJay]

6 hours ago, Grace said:

Did I have a post removed?? I could've swore I responded to @JDClapper on my take of the winter on & off. I'd like an explanation if it was removed. Thanks

@MaineJay

I don't see anything in the deleted content. It may have been a forum software thing. Apologies if there was an issue.

[RobB]

1/31 0Z NAEFS 

[MaineJay]

If the NAO follows the same progression, it's possible the next dip maximizes roughly Feb. 20, then behind to rebound. 

+EPO remains stubborn.

[MaineJay]

ECMWF weekly forecast from 1/16 for this week.

Here's what we are getting.  It wasn't terrible, just looks like it's biggest blunder was having the pattern rotated 15° counter clockwise, and it did miss the Alaska region pretty badly.

 

 

[RobB]

 

[Grace]

2 hours ago, RobB said:

1/31 0Z NAEFS 

 

This is not towards Rob, but just a clarification for all of us to remember about NAEFS. 

FYI, the NAEFS is not contradicting models. These are probabilities for FEB 8-14. It's really warm during that period & models have cooling beginning around 14th. The NAEFS probabilities are based on the same ensemble data: blend of GEPS & GEFS. 

"The NAEFS combines the Canadian MSC (Global Environmental Multiscale Model) and the US NWS global ensemble prediction systems (Global Forecast System), improving probabilistic operational guidance over what can be built from any individual country's ensemble."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Ensemble_Forecast_System#:~:text=The NAEFS combines the Canadian,from any individual country's ensemble.

 

So, NAEFS is just a blend of GEPS & GEFS. So those probabilities are not contradicting the model data at all. Those probabilities will begin to back off as the data covers lie a FEB 11-17...so in about 2-3 days. The CPC 8-14 is mostly based on a blend of all the Ensemble data as well. 

Here's the GEFS 8-14, 2m Temps & 500mb loops:

 

Here's the GEPS 8-14, 2m Temps & 500mb loops:

 

SUMMARY:

So...NAEFS probabilities are based on the above data. DAYS 8-13 are much above normal, cool down shows up more Days 14-15. Therefore NAEFS probabilities are going to be RED. 

I know many of you know this but not everyone does. 

 

 

MY THOUGHTS:

While I believe we improve mid-month I personally do not believe in a sudden flip. We certainly improve mid-Feb & then a little seasonal but potentially stronger,  more sustainable colder looking pattern looks more likely last week of FEB & well into MAR. 

Edited January 31 by Grace

[Grace]

1 hour ago, RobB said:

 

 

I think it was terrible. Other methods were not showing cold. Other methods showing mid-month cool down now, at least agree with curent LR modeling, giving current model data more believability. LR is certainly not the gospel but I think they're correctly seeing some changes for the better for many of us. 

Edited January 31 by Grace

[Wnwniner]

26 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

This is not towards Rob, but just a clarification for all of us to remember about NAEFS. 

FYI, the NAEFS is not contradicting models. These are probabilities for FEB 8-14. It's really warm during that period & models have cooling beginning around 14th. The NAEFS probabilities are based on the same ensemble data: blend of GEPS & GEFS. 

"The NAEFS combines the Canadian MSC (Global Environmental Multiscale Model) and the US NWS global ensemble prediction systems (Global Forecast System), improving probabilistic operational guidance over what can be built from any individual country's ensemble."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Ensemble_Forecast_System#:~:text=The NAEFS combines the Canadian,from any individual country's ensemble.

 

So, NAEFS is just a blend of GEPS & GEFS. So those probabilities are not contradicting the model data at all. Those probabilities will begin to back off as the data covers lie a FEB 11-17...so in about 2-3 days. The CPC 8-14 is mostly based on a blend of all the Ensemble data as well. 

Here's the GEFS 8-14, 2m Temps & 500mb loops:

 

Here's the GEPS 8-14, 2m Temps & 500mb loops:

 

SUMMARY:

So...NAEFS probabilities are based on the above data. DAYS 8-13 are much above normal, cool down shows up more Days 14-15. Therefore NAEFS probabilities are going to be RED. 

I know many of you know this but not everyone does. 

 

 

Thanks-this is very helpful explanation and makes a lot of sense.  

 

Our weather consultant had a mid season update and they also echo the mid-late Feb cool down and storm chances, so I feel better about that.  We really need a few more events to use the salt up-otherwise we won't have space to accept the remainder of our order!

[StretchCT]

Hot take here, but in looking at the snowfall totals for January in my post in in Daily Obs, most of the NEMA was at or above normal for snowfall.  NYC area was the only area that was lagging pretty badly.  Most of Mount Holly, Baltimore, State College, Binghamton, Gray, Burlington, Albany, Norton where NowData accumulation graphs were provided, the snowfall tracked near or above normal.  

[Wally Ho]

2 hours ago, Grace said:

 

This is not towards Rob, but just a clarification for all of us to remember about NAEFS. 

FYI, the NAEFS is not contradicting models. These are probabilities for FEB 8-14. It's really warm during that period & models have cooling beginning around 14th. The NAEFS probabilities are based on the same ensemble data: blend of GEPS & GEFS. 

"The NAEFS combines the Canadian MSC (Global Environmental Multiscale Model) and the US NWS global ensemble prediction systems (Global Forecast System), improving probabilistic operational guidance over what can be built from any individual country's ensemble."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Ensemble_Forecast_System#:~:text=The NAEFS combines the Canadian,from any individual country's ensemble.

 

So, NAEFS is just a blend of GEPS & GEFS. So those probabilities are not contradicting the model data at all. Those probabilities will begin to back off as the data covers lie a FEB 11-17...so in about 2-3 days. The CPC 8-14 is mostly based on a blend of all the Ensemble data as well. 

Here's the GEFS 8-14, 2m Temps & 500mb loops:

 

Here's the GEPS 8-14, 2m Temps & 500mb loops:

 

SUMMARY:

So...NAEFS probabilities are based on the above data. DAYS 8-13 are much above normal, cool down shows up more Days 14-15. Therefore NAEFS probabilities are going to be RED. 

I know many of you know this but not everyone does. 

 

 

MY THOUGHTS:

While I believe we improve mid-month I personally do not believe in a sudden flip. We certainly improve mid-Feb & then a little seasonal but potentially stronger,  more sustainable colder looking pattern looks more likely last week of FEB & well into MAR. 

I’m in (was in) the “not everyone knows this” camp. 🙂  Thanks!

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

Hot take here, but in looking at the snowfall totals for January in my post in in Daily Obs, most of the NEMA was at or above normal for snowfall.  NYC area was the only area that was lagging pretty badly.  Most of Mount Holly, Baltimore, State College, Binghamton, Gray, Burlington, Albany, Norton where NowData accumulation graphs were provided, the snowfall tracked near or above normal.  

Here's an image to put some numbers behind this. 

Some notable standouts - Syracuse with <1/3 of average; Phil-DC at or above, most others are lagging on the order of a half foot and more - some much more (Erie, Pgh, Cleveland)

[Pghsnow]

Could it be, looking at the GFS...

[Undertakerson2.0]

13 minutes ago, Pghsnow said:

Could it be, looking at the GFS...

HELLO!! 

Bring us up some tequila while you're down there - K? 

[StretchCT]

1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Here's an image to put some numbers behind this. 

Some notable standouts - Syracuse with <1/3 of average; Phil-DC at or above, most others are lagging on the order of a half foot and more - some much more (Erie, Pgh, Cleveland)

Season v just January.  But you gave me something else to do now. Thanks.

Harrisburg January

Harrisburg season

Williamsport season

Altoona season

Still closer than I thought. More in the Daily Obs for the NE

Edited January 31 by StretchCT

[TLChip]

1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Here's an image to put some numbers behind this. 

Some notable standouts - Syracuse with <1/3 of average; Phil-DC at or above, most others are lagging on the order of a half foot and more - some much more (Erie, Pgh, Cleveland)

Erie is proof we don’t see winds out of the north dumping cold anymore 👀 or rarely anyway  

[Pghsnow]

Let the games begin... We're open and ready for business.

[Penn State]

George Strait's latest hit.. The Snow Drifts of Old Mexico.

[TLChip]

Chances should be good with -NAO and -AO, typically anyway.

[RobB]

1/31 12Z NAEFS:

[TLChip]

1 hour ago, Penn State said:

George Strait's latest hit.. The Snow Drifts of Old Mexico.

Not sure what’s more impressive the snow in Mexico or that cat 2/3 winter hurricane in the arctic circle 

[Cary67]

From LOT AFD:

pressed south by blocking over central NOAM, we`ll have an
exceptionally long period of benign weather with surface high
pressure predominating through mid next week. Winds will be
generally from the northeast, resulting in rare winter time
"cooler near the lake" conditions lakeside amidst otherwise well
above normal temperatures in the 40s (with upside potential
pending sky cover trends). Next chance of precipitation will
come beyond day 7. The tendency during this stretch will be to
wonder if "winter is over", though consistent long range
ensemble guidance has been pointing toward the return of a more
wintry pattern (western ridging and eastern troughing with high
latitude blocking establishing), at least temperature wise,
toward Valentine`s Day.

Castro

[Grace]

 

[Grace]

0z GFS still splitting SPV at 10mb & 50mb

 

[RobB]

2/1 0Z NAEFS 

[Hassaywx1223]

Birds sure chirping today like it’s March first and not February first. Also the next ten days around here sure have the almost Saint Patrick’s day feel and not it’s still winter feel. Regardless of what we squeeze out of what’s left of winter this has been two back to back garbage winters…. I mean just look at it outside does not scream February screams I need to get my yard tools and lawn mower ready

Edited February 1 by Hassaywx1223