Pghsnow Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 40 minutes ago, Wnwniner said: I have no data to base this on, and certainly not bitter casting, but my life experience tells me I've seen this movie before. I recall several seasons in the Accuweather forums where it was "pattern change in a week or two" over and over all winter long. I love snow as much as anyone else, but I'm also ready to break out the golf clubs and get warm enough weather to play outside. Just not sure how much stock I put into the upcoming pattern change-really hope it happens, as we need about 2-3 snow events to clean out the salt barns to have enough space for the rest of what we ordered-but also ready to get to spring. People wishcast good patterns sometimes, but there's actual good reasons to think that we'll shift into a colder pattern later in Feb. No guarantees until it happens of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 (edited) Edited January 30 by Cary67 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wnwniner Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: People wishcast good patterns sometimes, but there's actual good reasons to think that we'll shift into a colder pattern later in Feb. No guarantees until it happens of course. I hope you and others are correct. I'm not nearly knowledgeable enough on all the factors to make my own opinion, just know I've seen the "upcoming pattern change" calls fail before and hope thats not the case here. In reality, you can have an amazing winter in a single 7-10 stretch (Feb 2010 around these parts). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adurb44 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, Wnwniner said: I have no data to base this on, and certainly not bitter casting, but my life experience tells me I've seen this movie before. I recall several seasons in the Accuweather forums where it was "pattern change in a week or two" over and over all winter long. I love snow as much as anyone else, but I'm also ready to break out the golf clubs and get warm enough weather to play outside. Just not sure how much stock I put into the upcoming pattern change-really hope it happens, as we need about 2-3 snow events to clean out the salt barns to have enough space for the rest of what we ordered-but also ready to get to spring. I'm with you. Certainly hoping for this, but I can recall years past feeling like Charlie Brown getting the football taken away many times with pattern shifts that never came to fruition. Hoping this isn't a repeat! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arctic Outbreak Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 26 minutes ago, adurb44 said: I'm with you. Certainly hoping for this, but I can recall years past feeling like Charlie Brown getting the football taken away many times with pattern shifts that never came to fruition. Hoping this isn't a repeat! Not only that, but these "pattern changes" tend to be short lived, just like the pattern change we had in the middle of January. We bounced back to our torchy base state pretty quickly, and I think that will happen again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 (edited) In this instance I have to insist that it's unwarranted to be on the negative side of the ledger (assuming the positive side is more snow, of course). The reason I see it that way is because so many of our reliable signals are in fact coming around. The MJO progression and the other teleconnection/wave influencing factors similarly make expert discussion - these all point in the colder direction. Personally, I'll despise it happening when we do, indeed, turn cold. My thoughts on this winter allowed for back loaded and also posit that Spring arrives quickly (based on a rapid ENSO decline and my own analog comparison). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf Edited January 30 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 38 minutes ago, Arctic Outbreak said: Not only that, but these "pattern changes" tend to be short lived, just like the pattern change we had in the middle of January. We bounced back to our torchy base state pretty quickly, and I think that will happen again. that's b/c we had no true pattern change. Only a "so called". Again, terms get glommed onto by those who report things and I did hear some local weather folks say "the pattern is changing, blah blah blah". What WE mean by change and what the masses accept as the term are two distinctly different things. Rob keeps posting the charts about the NAEFS - those over time, changed almost not at all --- YET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 4 minutes ago, JDClapper said: I liked this map. Renken is "winning" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 It was also hilarious that DC is the only major station with AN snowfall to date in nearly the entire Northeast - Philly is the closest PA locale to its seasonal average 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 30 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 30 I’ll be honest.. and maybe it’s wishcasting.. but I’m about as confident as I’ve ever been with the pattern. I’ve been -we’ve all been- watching the long-range ensembles, and it’s been rock solid. Operational guidance at long-range looks like ensemble guidance. Teleconnections are all signaling. For me.. I’m almost to the point of it’s not a matter of “if”. It’s “when” and “where”. Usually our odds feel low.. always fighting to get things right. With this coming pattern, I feel like Nick Saban’s Alabama playing the UL Muddogs without the waterboy lol ..Granted that’s dangerous, lots of room for disappointment! But.. it’s how I feel, so I’ll express it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 And now something we hope you'll really like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, Blizz said: I'd be a little careful with his interpretation of that. The next 7-10 days or so are going to be fairly dry when it's generally going to be too warm to snow anyway. If average-ish precip can occur during the period when it's colder, then it could turn out alright. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Acton Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, Blizz said: Yep, the El Nino with La Nina tentacles continues to run the pattern. Another long dry spell cometh, if this guidance is correct. Limited cold to work with also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 21 hours ago, Grace said: Here we go. I think a similar SPV warming event that has immediate results like in JAN. I'm not saying same severity of cold, no one honestly knows. But I'm saying it will deliver some cold. This is still a ways out but ensemble SPV forecasts have been hinting. GEFS Control splits toward end of run at 10mb & 50mb. Furthers my confidence of a similar event as in early to mid JAN. Rosby wave induced. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Winter's coming back. No it's not. Yes it is. I'm so confused.🤷♂️ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 (edited) hmmm Edited January 31 by TLChip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Did I have a post removed?? I could've swore I responded to @JDClapper on my take of the winter on & off. I'd like an explanation if it was removed. Thanks @MaineJay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, Grace said: That’s a really nice look. Confidence is gaining we could have a solid cold mid February onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 2 hours ago, JDClapper said: Winter's coming back. No it's not. Yes it is. I'm so confused.🤷♂️ Made me think of this for some reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 (edited) 0z GFS..split at 10mb & 50mb...could be a full SSW but does not have to be. This just opens the door for high latitude blocking. Now the same people that will blow this off& say it does not matter are the same people who freak out over short-term stronger SPV, lol. You can't make it up. Edited January 31 by Grace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 0z CMC pulled out the big guns 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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