SNOWBOB11 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 hours ago, Grace said: Joe Renken knocked it out of the park with the work he did on BSR! Do you know if he still does this? I haven’t heard about him since the accuweather days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 17 Meteorologist Share Posted January 17 56 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said: Do you know if he still does this? I haven’t heard about him since the accuweather days. Im pretty sure he is on the forum just doesn't post all too often (or maybe he does under his region?). His name I wanna say is organicforecasting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Im pretty sure he is on the forum just doesn't post all too often (or maybe he does under his region?). His name I wanna say is organicforecasting. Correct - that is his moniker and he does stop in from time to time He also passed this along to me - though others also have this page bookmarked. 😉 Brace yourselves! https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/polar-vortex/polar-vortex-acting 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1/17 0Z NAEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 21 minutes ago, RobB said: 1/17 0Z NAEFS Sadly, not enough of that (for my liking) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 If we have to wait to mid February then this winter is over as far as I am concerned. Can't even get an advisory level snow anymore these days . Bring on severe weather season ⛈️ 🌧 🌪 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Sadly, not enough of that (for my liking) I like getting breaks in either. Warmth in winter doesn't bug me as long as bouts of cold and snow occur 👍 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8 hours ago, SNOWBOB11 said: Do you know if he still does this? I haven’t heard about him since the accuweather days. He has a website which is where I get all the BSR maps I post. http://joe.organicforecasting.com/BsrEar/Bsr/ I used to talk with Joe every now & then but have not in sometime. It's been a year I think since we've talked. He's a good dude & has a brilliant mind. I need to reach out soon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 7 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Im pretty sure he is on the forum just doesn't post all too often (or maybe he does under his region?). His name I wanna say is organicforecasting. Thanks for the info. Wasn’t sure if that was him.👍 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: If we have to wait to mid February then this winter is over as far as I am concerned. Can't even get an advisory level snow anymore these days . Bring on severe weather season ⛈️ 🌧 🌪 Mid-FEB for potential stronger cold. There will be some chances before then. Since we've cooled down its possible for mediocre patterns to get enough cold with a system to produce. This was not possible back in DEC due to how warm we were in the N. Hemisphere. JAN 22-29 is the warmest part of the warm period. It'll probably be tough south of I-70 to get snow with any system that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Correct - that is his moniker and he does stop in from time to time He also passed this along to me - though others also have this page bookmarked. 😉 Brace yourselves! https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/polar-vortex/polar-vortex-acting Are you saying he helps with that website or that he's dating Amy Butler? Lol, I'm confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 (edited) 18 hours ago, Grace said: We've been saying for sometime warmth would return end of January. However, early February we return to more normal but not cold per Roundy & I agree. Western ridge, but does not look like really cold. BSR looks like colder pattern begins returning mid-Feb. BSR nailed the change to colder 2nd week of JAN . I might add my BSR mid-Feb remarks are based on how it's modeled in future. It has not occurred yet & today's GFS is not as promising in how Bering Sea is modeled. It'll change a lot from run to run and really can't be reliable until another week. Edited January 17 by Grace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1/17 12Z NAEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 We got a big SSW event ongoing right now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 (edited) Big changes on GFS. Has a big high anchored in Eastern Canada that really mutes the warm up. Hope it is onto something and not drugs. And then this after day 10 Edited January 17 by Pghsnow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 MJO now stalls out in 6/7 with a booming +AO/+NAO combo 🥴 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 (edited) Getting concerned about an icing event next week. Warm air advecting over a cold shallow airmass with a strong artic high in Canada could be a problem 🧊 Edited January 17 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 18 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 18 Can someone help me out with this.. I see what I think are heights to the west, and a 50/50 low.. but I don’t know. Is this a favorable look? I need to improve my recognition skills lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 (edited) I see a -EPO signal, look at the ridge over Alaska! Edited January 18 by Iceresistance 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: MJO now stalls out in 6/7 with a booming +AO/+NAO combo 🥴 The +AO may not last long 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 18 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 18 9 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: I see a -EPO signal, look at the ridge over Alaska! Indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 18 Meteorologist Share Posted January 18 3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Getting concerned about an icing event next week. Warm air advecting over a cold shallow airmass with a strong artic high in Canada could be a problem 🧊 Yea this will be interesting to watch not sure yet where it sets up but definitely something to watch. No one wants ice lol 1 hour ago, Penn State said: Can someone help me out with this.. I see what I think are heights to the west, and a 50/50 low.. but I don’t know. Is this a favorable look? I need to improve my recognition skills lol Ridging too far west for my liking. The 50/50 is ehhh but there and some semblance of a-NAO (more neutral look than anything) I truly do think the -PDO is still playing a strong role in dictating how this El Nino is behaving. The +AO/+NAO signal is not a death knell for winter we have been plagued by this alot over the past couple years but background state of the El Nino still should provide a bit of a better situation in those types of patterns than we have been used to. No -NAO means that systems will continuing cruising through the area. I personally would not like a big -AO as that is just flat out intrusive cold air, no thanks. Some like that so to each their own. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 19 hours ago, Grace said: He has a website which is where I get all the BSR maps I post. http://joe.organicforecasting.com/BsrEar/Bsr/ I used to talk with Joe every now & then but have not in sometime. It's been a year I think since we've talked. He's a good dude & has a brilliant mind. I need to reach out soon. 19 hours ago, Grace said: Are you saying he helps with that website or that he's dating Amy Butler? Lol, I'm confused. Dang Grace. First you pump his tires with that "brilliant mind" comment - then you ask if he's available? Got something you wanna share with us? J/K of course. No I meant that if there is a piece of new relevant information out there, it's likely gonna be Joe who shows it to me first. He's like our very own web browser for weather wisdom stuff. 8 hours ago, Penn State said: Can someone help me out with this.. I see what I think are heights to the west, and a 50/50 low.. but I don’t know. Is this a favorable look? I need to improve my recognition skills lol It's not a good look outside of the W ridge which is actually horrible displaced to really maximize snow chances here - get rid of the confluence over SE Canada and you may be cooking. I will say that look holds some promise though - it has the H3 level Pac air shut off and the open front door of the N Atl should let that confluence move "right" and create a chance for the valued HP in its place. No, to me early Feb is still not favorable. Must wait past the first week, then we have 7-10 days of cold and winter again - featuring a "BigUn". I'm thinking Feb is also a midmonth "one and done" - as in 7-10 days of cold, then relax, then Spring. Jan may very well finish AN temps even after the mid month "one and done" and Feb is unlikely to see that change. I am mindful of a base/background state of warm like we've never seen - thus it will take some large mechanism to alter that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al_Czervik Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Dang Grace. First you pump his tires with that "brilliant mind" comment - then you ask if he's available? Got something you wanna share with us? J/K of course. No I meant that if there is a piece of new relevant information out there, it's likely gonna be Joe who shows it to me first. He's like our very own web browser for weather wisdom stuff. It's not a good look outside of the W ridge which is actually horrible displaced to really maximize snow chances here - get rid of the confluence over SE Canada and you may be cooking. I will say that look holds some promise though - it has the H3 level Pac air shut off and the open front door of the N Atl should let that confluence move "right" and create a chance for the valued HP in its place. No, to me early Feb is still not favorable. Must wait past the first week, then we have 7-10 days of cold and winter again - featuring a "BigUn". I'm thinking Feb is also a midmonth "one and done" - as in 7-10 days of cold, then relax, then Spring. Jan may very well finish AN temps even after the mid month "one and done" and Feb is unlikely to see that change. I am mindful of a base/background state of warm like we've never seen - thus it will take some large mechanism to alter that. My hunch is winter is going to keep going strong until March/April for east of the Rockies and north of I 70. If we have a SSW, the downstream effects are more likely to land here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1/18 0Z NAEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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