Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[snowlover2]

4 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

GEFS hinting at 1-2 systems in that Jan. 9-12 time frame with the potential to lay down a swath of wintry precip somewhere in the southern plains/MW/OV/GL region....probably the most promising time frame to keep an eye on that we've had all season so far. Might make a thread out of sheer weather boredom 😴💤

Too late.

 

[SNOWBOB11]

1 hour ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Kind of has the look of the 'dump west, bleed east' that we see all the time though. Also, a few degrees above normal in early/mid January still looks like this (still cold enough for wintry precip for many): 

I think the issue is this second week of January period was looking good for cold and wintery conditions. For it to change to cooler than December but still above normal is a bit unexpected.

[Psu1313]

54 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

I think the issue is this second week of January period was looking good for cold and wintery conditions. For it to change to cooler than December but still above normal is a bit unexpected.

There was a bit of statistical dart play going on with those guesses I believe based on historical data. Why I'm focused on after the 20th of January mainly is that we have virtually nothing really working for us at the moment. MJO? Headed to some not so good phases. Alaska? Nope. Atlantic? Double nope. 

What is odd to me, is that patterns have seemed to stick a lot longer the last 10 years. Prior to that, you would expect a pattern change every 4-6 weeks or so. Now, there are some changes afoot which may lead to something bigger in a few weeks, but for the moment, it is what it is. 

Now for the hope part. I have attached a copy of the GFS and pay close attention from hour 264 on. Look East of Greenland and then backing up into Greenland at the end and look at Alaska. I don't put this out there to say the model has it correct or anything like that. I put it out there to show that the potential is there and if what is depicted were to happen, things would change, at least temporarily. (I think, haven't double checked, that this OP run is banking on an SSW based on the depiction so take this with a few grains of salt)

[TheBlizzardOf1978]

We will see.

[RobB]

https://twitter.com/ContentWxGuy/status/1740412713170588029?t=o2iFaFSaH4zU00hu3iRwlA&s=19

[StormfanaticInd]

Can't even buy a 1 inch snowstorm here in Indy lol smh

[TheComet]

50 minutes ago, RobB said:

https://twitter.com/ContentWxGuy/status/1740412713170588029?t=o2iFaFSaH4zU00hu3iRwlA&s=19

Was wondering where all the cold went. I mean it's gotta be cold somewhere, right? 

[RobB]

3 minutes ago, TheComet said:

Was wondering where all the cold went. I mean it's gotta be cold somewhere, right? 

Indeed. 

[Snowgeek93]

This warmth is par for the course in El Nino winters around here. No surprise with how this winter has unfolded so far.  

I'm sure the wintry weather will come later in the season though. I'm just hoping beyond hope that it doesn't extend into another miserable Spring. 

[MaineJay]

El Niño, La Niña, la nada, Il Duce, it doesn't matter, this is wicked unusual to see.

[StLweatherjunkie]

7 hours ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

GEFS hinting at 1-2 systems in that Jan. 9-12 time frame with the potential to lay down a swath of wintry precip somewhere in the southern plains/MW/OV/GL region....probably the most promising time frame to keep an eye on that we've had all season so far. Might make a thread out of sheer weather boredom 😴💤

I agree this is among the most promising time frames so far this season. 

Pretty good ensemble agreement on a low pressure somewhere in the Great Lakes region around Jan 9-10 that seems to be too far north for most. However, there also seems to be a good push of cold air with decent run-to-run consistency of back-to-back systems. The OHV and other more southern locations will almost certainly need to wait until the second system around Jan 12 that may also result in a coastal transfer around the 13th. 

This is so far away and I'm disappointed in myself for even getting remotely excited about this.

[StLweatherjunkie]

3 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

I agree this is among the most promising time frames so far this season. 

Pretty good ensemble agreement on a low pressure somewhere in the Great Lakes region around Jan 9-10 that seems to be too far north for most. However, there also seems to be a good push of cold air with decent run-to-run consistency of back-to-back systems. The OHV and other more southern locations will almost certainly need to wait until the second system around Jan 12 that may also result in a coastal transfer around the 13th. 

This is so far away and I'm disappointed in myself for even getting remotely excited about this.

Oh and for what it's worth, the energy that I believe is responsible for the modeled storm (blue circle) seems to be in a well sampled part of the world .... so far away ... 🤦‍♂️

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Can't even buy a 1 inch snowstorm here in Indy lol smh

Forget 1 inch, IND can't even buy a tenth of an inch lol.

[Grace]

 

[SNOWBOB11]

2 hours ago, Snowgeek93 said:

This warmth is par for the course in El Nino winters around here. No surprise with how this winter has unfolded so far.  

I'm sure the wintry weather will come later in the season though. I'm just hoping beyond hope that it doesn't extend into another miserable Spring. 

I hear you on that but this is extreme. I know stronger El Niños are not great in our area in December but the extent of the lack of snow to the north and the absolute non existent cold air around our area is extensive.

I also hear what others are saying not to write of winter in December but early January was looking cold not so long ago on the models and now it’s being pushed back. Waiting on a SSW is silly it really is.

You can’t have a good winter if winter gets going in February. That’s not to say you can’t get a good storm but winter is more than just a storm.

Nothing past day 5-7 should be taken seriously IMO currently on models and there should be no expectation of a pattern change until it actually happens or is within a few days.

[Grace]

0z Euro starts to split SPV at 10mb & 50mb on day 10 (end of run).

[1816]

You can always count on me for non scientific conjecture. But from simple observation and pattern recognition over many years it appears to me that nature can and does hear our conversations and has a sense of humor and likes to fuck with us. 

 

So the absolutely incredible lack of snow and extreme warmth are bound by this rule to be flipped completely upside down when the universe gets tired of listening to the chatter. I expect a massive cold wave and possible heavy snows somewhere soon enough just based on this. 

Edited December 29, 2023 by 1816

[RobB]

12/29 0Z NAEFS 

[StretchCT]

0z GFS Precip next 10 days

vs Euro which at least has some storms to track, though still not cold enough.

[StormfanaticInd]

12 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Forget 1 inch, IND can't even buy a tenth of an inch lol.

It's bad man. Lol If this mid month system fails to produce we may lose another month to winter 😫😫

Edited December 29, 2023 by StormfanaticInd

[beaver56]

17 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

It's bad man. Lol If this mid month system fails to produce we may lose another month to winter 😫😫

Not to be a pessimist, but don't be shocked. Never seems to be enough precip. At least in the last 18 months or so. 

Edited December 29, 2023 by beaver56

[StretchCT]

Usually ignore the 6z but was shocked to see the 24hr min temps for the next 10-12 days.  The lowest temp for me was 23 on the last frame and that's still 5-6 degrees above normal.  Normal lows are upper teens now to mid teens later in Jan. Islip and NYC don't even go below freezing until the last frame. 

Edited December 29, 2023 by StretchCT

[BuckeyeGal]

I posted in the Midwest/Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Daily Discussion about some interesting stuff with the last couple of model runs. I think there are going to be some sneaky events coming up.. and I'm especially intrigued with the 1/4-1/5 system that they've brought back. That may turn into a Nor'easter of some type for all you NE folks. (I'm of course heading to NYC on 1/5.. hahaha.) But really.. thinking big cutter around 1/10 to usher in the cold air/hopeful pattern change, then more things for us to track!

[MesoscaleBanding]

9 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Usually ignore the 6z but was shocked to see the 24hr min temps for the next 10-12 days.  The lowest temp for me was 23 on the last frame and that's still 5-6 degrees above normal.  Normal lows are upper teens now to mid teens later in Jan. Islip and NYC don't even go below freezing until the last frame. 

Yuck.

Lack of snow cover & plenty of insulating clouds at night will do that 💩

[StormfanaticInd]