easton229 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Forecast from DTX. Have expanded the heavier totals to the south from their previous graphic this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 2, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 hours ago, easton229 said: Also calling for 1-2”/Hr rates Friday evening. CLE calls DTX’s 1-2”/hr rates and raises it to 3”/hr. I think this is in the reference to the extreme NW portion of their forecast area. CLE: Latest experimental WPC snow band probabilities suggest snow rates up to 3 inches per hour are possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 3, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 3, 2023 Wow. I’m glad I’m not doing the SREF’s this storm. With the NAM out on its own at this hour, the SREF’s don’t resemble the current forecast all that much. Detroit mean around 1.7”, Chicago around 7”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 3, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 3, 2023 Don’t forget about the snowfall contest. As of now, one more player would be guaranteed 2nd place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 15 minutes ago, Hiramite said: Don’t forget about the snowfall contest. As of now, one more player would be guaranteed 2nd place. Just entered! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 NAM finally seems to be playing ball with a massive jump east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted March 3, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 3, 2023 4 hours ago, easton229 said: NAM is the only one showing that extreme west snow placement. Just off it hasn’t even picked up on moving east at all. I would side with a more Easterly component.. And further South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted March 3, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 3, 2023 11 hours ago, WeatherJim said: I am a total novice and am trying to understand the sudden SE shift. There is no massive high pressure or cold air in place to push this SE. Were the models just that wrong? What is causing this 100+ mile shift? 11 hours ago, junior said: I'm no expert but like every storm this winter, this has trended weaker. This is also pretty much a closed off cutoff system so there's no help from a phase that would bring dynamics etc. Also stronger storms tend to pump heights out ahead of it, making northwest jogs more possible. The northern and southern extent has been realized so shouldn't be huge shifts from here on out.. just gotta figure out the temp profiles. While there is no massive HP, we are still in the middle of a pattern shift. Likewise, the storm has trended less phased and the NAO over the EC is flexing. Combine this together and the storm is being forced to be weaker while at the same time shunted further SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 (edited) On 2/22/2023 at 12:00 PM, MesoscaleBanding said: Screw it - it's late enough in an abysmal OV winter to call my shot... March 3-4 Apps Runner - take it to the bank Looking back at the first post and it looks like the GEM had close to the track from the beginning albeit a lot less area for snow. From what I remember, it didn’t really waver at all over the past 7 days. Edited March 3, 2023 by easton229 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 (edited) DTX goes WSW for almost all of CWA. 6-10” forecast. Edited March 3, 2023 by easton229 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Latest GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 GFS dropping 17” IMBY at 10:1 ratios. You don’t see that very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 3, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 3, 2023 Looking like just NW of Detroit is going to get a very solid snowstorm! Beautiful CCB representation on some of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 3, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 3, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Looking like just NW of Detroit is going to get a very solid snowstorm! Beautiful CCB representation on some of the models. CCB = Cold Conveyor Belt ? Edited March 3, 2023 by Hiramite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 3, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 3, 2023 (edited) The NAM is finally joining the other models. (Kuchera) Edited March 3, 2023 by Hiramite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 3, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 3, 2023 Last one of these... Good luck to those in its path. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 3, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 3, 2023 (edited) Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 413 AM EST Fri Mar 03 2023 WPC mentions the possibility of thundersnow! Quote This Midwest/Great Lakes snow swath will develop on an increasingly intense deformation band translating along the NW edge of the precipitation shield. This band will likely have a sharp cutoff on the NW side due to dry air from the Canadian high to the north, but should also produce intense snowfall rates to accumulate rapidly despite its progressive nature from SW to NE (and this being the afternoon in March). This band is likely to become intense due to its position beneath the TROWAL and favorable overlap of deformation/fgen, especially before the system begins to weaken thanks to the ageostrophic flow into the low helping to producing stronger CAA to sharpen the baroclinicity. Cross sections suggest some -SEPV above the most strongly sloped fgen, especially across lower MI, which could result in CSI and even upright convection/thundersnow. The marginal thermals will likely result in some areas changing from rain to heavy snow, but the rapid transition during this band combined with dynamical cooling should still result in efficient accumulations despite modest SLR in the moist environment. The combination of intense snow rates, which could reach 2-3"/hr or more at times as shown by the WPC snowband tool, with strong winds, will produce major impacts this afternoon into tonight across this region. Day 1 snow probabilities are now moderately high for >6" over northern IN and high over southeast MI. There is a 20 to 30% risk for a max of a foot of snow over southeast MI into the Thumb which will occur this evening with nocturnal trends aiding accumulation. Edited March 3, 2023 by Hiramite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Hiramite said: Last one of these... Good luck to those in its path. Latest HRRR runs showing sleet mixing in for the eastern MI counties. Gonna be a line that can mean the difference of 6” or 10” in a 10-15 mile span most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harberr62 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 From Chicago: With a deep surface low comes strong surface winds due to the tightening surface pressure gradient. Confidence is high in seeing frequent wind gusts in excess of 45 mph along and southeast of I-57. With these winds in mind, blizzard-like conditions cannot be ruled out but confidence in a longer duration and greater coverage of these conditions preclude an upgrade with this forecast package. Will note that hi-res guidance, and in particular the HRRR, is trying to resolve a mesoscale feature (possible gravity wave?) with a period of winds gusting to near 60mph this afternoon. Confidence in winds of this magnitude actually occurring is low though it will be something to monitor very closely as it would ramp up impacts a couple notches, including exacerbating blizzard-like conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harberr62 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Also from Chicago....impressive. In fact, if modeled surface pressure verify it could threaten all-time record low pressure for western Indiana! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 3, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 3, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Hiramite said: CCB = Cold Conveyor Belt ? Yep when you get that solid precip shield with an intense stripe that is usually indicative of a mature storm and the short range models beautifully display that acrosd northern IN and SE MI. Also that dry intrusion typically descends in the atmosphere from the upper levels to near the surface hence the dry tongue/slot we so often talk about. That pic shows it lifting which is not the case. The warm sector lifts and curls into helping with CCB formation as well as dry air intrusion. Edited March 3, 2023 by so_whats_happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 (edited) Gotta love this moderate rain on my day off. Netflix n chill kinda day. Edited March 3, 2023 by junior 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted March 3, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 3, 2023 I want snow pics, northern posters!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 3 hours ago, Hiramite said: The NAM is finally joining the other models. (Kuchera) NAM is horrible. Knew NIL was out of the game yesterday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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