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March 3-4, 2023 | MW/GL Winter Storm


MesoscaleBanding

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30 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

18 Z NAM came in hot but still out of its range. Euro held steady. 12GFS further SE but 12Z GEFS bumped back NW 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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We’ll file this one under guess we wait and see lol

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I don’t know whether to be happy or sad that I’m currently in Orlando and it’s 85 degrees. 😄 

 

come to think of it, I don’t really mind missing out on this one given the circumstances..although we’re supposed to fly back Saturday night. Wondering if we might be delayed a day.

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29 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Your choice, Beatles "Getting Better" or Brooks & Dunn "It's Getting Better All the Time":

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Loving the trends for our Michigan people.  I hope you get dumped on.

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40 minutes ago, beaver56 said:

Loving the trends for our Michigan people.  I hope you get dumped on.

Gimme 50 more miles to the south and I’ll be in the 8-12” range. DTX has mentioned that it’s still entirely possible that the heaviest snow shifts south of the Tri-city area so I’m still in play! 

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11 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

0-2” of slop to cold rain is what local met from 13ABC says. Fun fun.

No doubt some areal flooding. Pretty sure the agricultural fields are still water logged. Guess it means no near term risk of any drought.

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48 minutes ago, ryanmkay said:

Sitting in Extreme SE Monroe County and missing out on 6"+ by ~15mi. After yesterdays weather, I'm ready for spring. 

Everywhere I've been throughout NWO this past week the fields have standing water. Even this morning still.  That much rain won't help

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I am a total novice and am trying to understand the sudden SE shift. There is no massive high pressure or cold air in place to push this SE. Were the models just that wrong? What is causing this 100+ mile shift?

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14 minutes ago, WeatherJim said:

I am a total novice and am trying to understand the sudden SE shift. There is no massive high pressure or cold air in place to push this SE. Were the models just that wrong? What is causing this 100+ mile shift?

I'm no expert but like every storm this winter, this has trended weaker. This is also pretty much a closed off cutoff system so there's no help from a phase that would bring dynamics etc. Also stronger storms tend to pump heights out ahead of it, making northwest jogs more possible. The northern and southern extent has been realized so shouldn't be huge shifts from here on out.. just gotta figure out the temp profiles.

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