BoroBuckeye Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 The uncertainty in the KS, MO, IA area is extra crazy in my mind since those areas will get impacted so much sooner, relatively speaking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 1, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 1, 2023 (edited) WPC's Heavy Snow Discussion from 4AM this morning... Quote Utilizing the WPC super ensemble (WSE), current guidance has been keying on an area from southern and eastern IA to southern WI, northern IL, and central MI for heavy snowfall. These areas feature boundary layer temperatures that are colder than their neighbors in the Central Plains, while still being favorably located north and west of the 850mb low where the TROWAL is likely to pass over. The WSE mean shows 4-6" worth of snow there with some totals in the 6-8" range over central MI through Friday. As the upper low tracks into the Ohio Valley Friday afternoon, strong 290K isentropic ascent and intense 850mb WAA over the Mid-Atlantic will prompt heavy precipitation to break out over the northern Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast. Unlike their neighbors in the Midwest, the high over Canada is in a more optimal position for a CAD wedge to form. Despite this, the storm track favors strong SW flow though the column that will lead to a burgeoning warm nose aloft, likely causing any snow over northern PA and Upstate NY to change over to a wintry mix late Friday. From there, snow potential in the Northeast hinges on when and where a coastal low forms along the Northeast coast Saturday morning. Should it form sooner and track south of the southern New England coastline, snow has a chance to remain the dominant precip type through much of the event. The region with the best odds of staying cold enough for snow for the event is central and northern New England. This is where WPC PWPF features the best odds for >8" of snowfall on Friday and into Saturday (roughly 60-80% probabilities for >8", 30-50% for >12" of snow). Given the amount of moisture and the sufficient cold present from the Great Lakes to the Interior Northeast, the experimental PWSSI shows 50-70% probabilities for Moderate impacts Friday into Saturday. WPC has begun Key Messages for this impending winter storm from the Midwest to the Northeast and are listed below. Edited March 1, 2023 by Hiramite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 1, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 1, 2023 An early call..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, Hiramite said: An early call..... All for it to be gone in a day. Not even worth it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, easton229 said: All for it to be gone in a day. Not even worth it. Yep. Going to have a tough time accumulating too with temps warming up today. This will probably be a nothing burger in the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 1, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, easton229 said: All for it to be gone in a day. Not even worth it. I like snow to stick around as much as the next guy, but I'll gladly have snow/flakes rather than no snow....winter, spring, summer or fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncinthenext3 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 45 minutes ago, Hiramite said: An early call..... Let's just say I'm not cancelling any plans yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Hiramite said: An early call..... Too early 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Yeahhh it’s supposed to be 60 here today. Even with marginal snows the ground temp is way too warm for any decent accumulations. Would have to be some pretty hefty rates for anything to stick. Even if the SE trend continues, I still don’t think Toledo will manage more than an inch of slop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 RGEM narrows the snow down even more to just a few counties in MI. Has a dollop of 10-12” in Oakland county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 40 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said: 12z GFS Absolute brutal cutoff on the southern edge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Nothing like one inch of 44 degree rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said: Absolute brutal cutoff on the southern edge Probably need to cut those totals by 50-60% too. Higher sun angle and warmer surface temps will make accumulations difficult. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, Jpfalcon said: Probably need to cut those totals by 50-60% too. Higher sun angle and warmer surface temps will make accumulations difficult. Ooooooh! There it is! The statement I was waiting for! Thanks for not letting me down! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, Jpfalcon said: Probably need to cut those totals by 50-60% too. Higher sun angle and warmer surface temps will make accumulations difficult. Off topic. I would have loved to see the model outputs for snow in March 1993. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 20 minutes ago, Jpfalcon said: Probably need to cut those totals by 50-60% too. Higher sun angle and warmer surface temps will make accumulations difficult. Yea the snow depth change is pretty sad. 10-12” fall but only 4” of snow depth change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted March 1, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 1, 2023 37 minutes ago, easton229 said: Yea the snow depth change is pretty sad. 10-12” fall but only 4” of snow depth change. At least it’ll be white and not mud! lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 19 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: At least it’ll be white and not mud! lol. Unless you look at the NAM then it’s all mud here too lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Anyone want to start a thread... 😁 1 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Either the NAM is completely lost, or it knows something the other models don’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Classic windshield wiper effect on the GFS. MI in a decent spot atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 (edited) Reading the AFD from DTX and it doesn’t sound too impressive in SEMI unless you’re north of I-69 so it sounds like they’re favoring Euro/NAM over the GFS/CMC. Do mention that precip is still very sensitive to an unknown track. Edited March 1, 2023 by easton229 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 18 Z NAM came in hot but still out of its range. Euro held steady. 12GFS further SE but 12Z GEFS bumped back NW  1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 14 minutes ago, Cary67 said: 18 Z NAM came in hot but still out of its range. Euro held steady. 12GFS further SE but 12Z GEFS bumped back NW  Good luck with this bugger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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