Meteorologist Ingyball Posted February 28, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said: What does shift of tails mean on the EFI model? It essentially tells you the potential severity of the event. A shift of tails of 0 means that at least 10% of the ensembles are forecasting an extreme event. The higher the number the more extreme the event is. On the contrary, EFI describes the likelihood of an abnormal event (i.e outside of the climate norm) so when it's closer to 1 it means the majority or all of the EPS members are forecasting an event that is outside of the 30 year climate. So shift of tails would measure extremity and EFI measures the confidence of that extreme event happening. Does that make sense? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Another substantial shift west on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted February 28, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 28, 2023 I jokingly said this could become a Nebraska storm but right now I believe it lol. Would love to cash in on the northwest shift for once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ingyball said: It essentially tells you the potential severity of the event. A shift of tails of 0 means that at least 10% of the ensembles are forecasting an extreme event. The higher the number the more extreme the event is. On the contrary, EFI describes the likelihood of an abnormal event (i.e outside of the climate norm) so when it's closer to 1 it means the majority or all of the EPS members are forecasting an event that is outside of the 30 year climate. So shift of tails would measure extremity and EFI measures the confidence of that extreme event happening. Does that make sense? It basically does make sense. Thanks for the explanation 👍 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Y’all are arguing over 8 inches of snow and where it’s falling I can say from being in Accuweather days a lot of people didn’t come over in the Midwest outside of the Ohio valley. Do you have a job a life a family you care about?? Then yeah winter has sucked but it’s one part of our lives. One man’s loss is another’s gain it’s okay to express that you’re mad or excited about it. It’s natural especially for people like us that love weather as it’s our hobby. Don’t think there’s a need to argue about it most of us know how to look at models see forecast read soundings and be happy or sad or mad about it, but to come in here and attack people over their feelings of their passion is unacceptable to me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Popular Post BuckeyeGal Posted February 28, 2023 Admin Popular Post Share Posted February 28, 2023 5 hours ago, MidMichiganWx said: Really makes non-OV people feel included lol Hey, @MidMichiganWx. I am responding here only because of the direct call out. I was actually referring to the models, which only two days ago had this walloping areas much further S/E. They moved hundreds (if not thousands) of miles.. which is laughable. And comical. This pattern has been incredibly frustrating, and I know I speak for what I think is the majority of posters when I express the extreme amount of “bleh” that has resulted because of it. I am so sorry you feel as though posters are being unwelcoming to you. I went back and read everything, however, and I don’t see attacks from anyone toward those “in the bullseye.” If anything, I see disappointment. People like @Ohiobuckeye45 spend hours following models and posting about them here. When it looked like a storm might finally give us a bit of white.. and then it recycled back to the same pattern, it was a big, fat ugh for those missing out. There has to be some kindness and empathy on your end (and those looking to receive the snow). You brought your accusations and concerns in a blatantly crude manner (with cussing and sexual references that I do not appreciate). @Uscg Ast offered a levelheaded reply about our position in all of this, and you tossed it aside. I would ask that you go look at your posts.. and see if you can understand what I’m talking about. If we’ve lost your patronage, it makes me sad. I remain extremely proud of this place and what it stands for. And now we move on. 6 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted February 28, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 28, 2023 0z Low Tracker. As one would expect, things are tightening up. Another rainbow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 5 hours ago, MidMichiganWx said: Really makes non-OV people feel included lol If you are trying to call me out for being negative on a winter storm so be it. I was trying to bring situational awareness to everyone because there was not a thread for this area for severe weather. You should have included my next post as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxwatchman Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Hiramite said: 0z Low Tracker. As one would expect, things are tightening up. Another rainbow. This came to mind when I saw that. Sorry Random 😆 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Last thing we need here in extreme SEMI is more liquid. Nearly two inches of rain yesterday, fields and ditches are flooded. Ice would even be worse with trees weakened from the ice storm last week and strong winds that followed. What a mess... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 (edited) This forum can be customized to read exactly as you want if you utilize the block/ignore button correctly. Edited February 28, 2023 by Sam 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Jpfalcon said: Last thing we need here in extreme SEMI is more liquid. Nearly two inches of rain yesterday, fields and ditches are flooded. Ice would even be worse with trees weakened from the ice storm last week and strong winds that followed. What a mess... NW Ohio has been a soaker as well. We haven’t had the ice like you guys up there but past two weeks we’ve had a widespread 3-5” of precip. Lots of farmers fields are to the breaking point. This system is going to test the limits with another 1-2”. Probably will secure Toledo in the 4th spot for all time wettest February Edited February 28, 2023 by NWOhioChaser 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevep95 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 @MidMichiganWx I really don’t understand the issue. People have always talked about their backyard. It’s everyone’s passion. We love snow. What’s the point of posting without any personality? We can all just look at the weather models and see what the computers tell us. I see people disappointed about missing a storm. No one is putting any other area or individual down. You just don’t have many in your area posting. Lastly, I really do not appreciate your cursing and crude talk. That’s one thing I was always appreciative of the forums. People were polite and the language was always friendly. That’s what I find welcoming of these forums as I am sure others do. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncinthenext3 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Jpfalcon said: Last thing we need here in extreme SEMI is more liquid. Nearly two inches of rain yesterday, fields and ditches are flooded. Ice would even be worse with trees weakened from the ice storm last week and strong winds that followed. What a mess... That's the truth. All of the farmer's fields look like they decided to install lakes instead of grow crops. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Stevep95 said: @MidMichiganWx I really don’t understand the issue. People have always talked about their backyard. It’s everyone’s passion. We love snow. What’s the point of posting without any personality? We can all just look at the weather models and see what the computers tell us. I see people disappointed about missing a storm. No one is putting any other area or individual down. You just don’t have many in your area posting. Lastly, I really do not appreciate your cursing and crude talk. That’s one thing I was always appreciative of the forums. People were polite and the language was always friendly. That’s what I find welcoming of these forums as I am sure others do. It's also frustrating when the storm is five days out and shows big snows for one area only to have it all disappear the next model run. Consistently, over and over and over. I understand it's all about the pattern, but IMO the models should be better than that so close to the event. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 28, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 28, 2023 33 minutes ago, ncinthenext3 said: That's the truth. All of the farmer's fields look like they decided to install lakes instead of grow crops. Our food supply needs that like a hole in the head. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 28, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 28, 2023 28 minutes ago, bigben89 said: It's also frustrating when the storm is five days out and shows big snows for one area only to have it all disappear the next model run. Consistently, over and over and over. I understand it's all about the pattern, but IMO the models should be better than that so close to the event. You know AI is becoming more and more Sentient right... Um, the models... well... might hear you... On a more serious note - models are currently dealing with a plethora of uncertainty and moving parts. You have an atmosphere in flux. Unfortunately, models are only so good as the equations and data put into them. This is why large pattern shifts tend to give models consternation. Furthermore, pattern shifts create conditions which are ripe for rapidly deepening and exceedingly strong disturbances to develop at the fringes/interlaps of the macroscale features. Of course, this is why we still need meteorologists, but alas, that tends to be a different post all together. Personally, I do not think we are quite set in stone yet. I think we will likely see either: 1) A bit more SE copy of what just transpired with the storm over the past couple of days 2) This storm wrap up so tightly, it goes even further W than what was shown last night. The interesting thing about this scenario would be what it might allow behind it. Again, for a different post. Unfortunately, this is a wait and see scenario. I know we are closing in on the Short Range, but what we are seeing is still not set in stone. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RadioWX Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 12z GFS coming in thru hour 60 output looks pretty darn near identical to the 0z run, FWIW (to my amateur eyes at least).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 has this storm slowed down yet again? Feels like we should be well inside the NAMs range by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 (edited) Edited February 28, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 (edited) The 12z GFS is dropping between 13”-22” around me. Looks a bit overdone but shows the potential with the storm. Edited February 28, 2023 by SNOWBOB11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 last frame of 6z ECM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: last frame of 6z ECM Gimme spring 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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