Cary67 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Lol. Cold sector precip goes poof. Can't generate a decent storm unless it's earmarked for MSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 0z tracks: Messed up the GFS, it is closer to the northern edge of the thick blue line. The numbers are the lowest pressure for each respective model. As the low transfers to the coast, the low position exiting OH becomes murky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 CLE has a good write-up that is worth the read even if you don't live in the CLE forecast area. Here is just a couple of paragraphs. It mentions, as @MaineJay opined a few posts back, the track will be forced eastward somewhere in the OV or lower Lakes. Quote Where the spread really comes in at this point is in the track of the low, with some ensemble members tracking the low as far northwest as Gary, IN Friday afternoon while some members still maintain a low track through the Ohio Valley towards Charleston, WV or Pittsburgh. The western low track would bring a much rainier solution to the local area while the eastern low track would be much more wintry. In terms of what will influence the track of this low, the pattern that`s been quite familiar this winter of a western U.S. trough and southeastern U.S. ridge persists this week, which does argue for the farther northwest and rainier solutions. However, there will be stout "Greenland blocking" (a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation) in place later this week, which will pin a trough with Arctic air over southeast Canada ahead of the approaching storm system. How much this Arctic air is able to press into the Great Lakes and Northeast ahead of the low pressure Thursday and Thursday night will have a lot to say about the final track of the system and precipitation type across our area, with how quickly the low pressure deepens also a part of this equation. Out of the current operational models, the 0z GFS run has a stronger low pressure and a weaker press of cold air out of southeast Canada ahead of it, leading to a low track right over Cleveland that brings mostly rain to most of our area with some snow towards Toledo. On the flip side, the 0z Canadian has both a somewhat weaker low pressure and a stronger press of cold air out of southeast Canada, leading to a low track into WV and a much snowier solution. The 0z European is a middle ground between these two extremes. Ensemble members span this entire spectrum, though there is a lean of sorts towards the stronger/more northwest solution at the moment. The general trend over the last few cycles has been for the guidance envelope to shift northwest as a whole, but considerable spread exists with mainly rain or mainly snow solutions still on the table for our forecast area. Locations farther north stand an inherently greater risk of seeing more snow than locations farther south, but the forecast currently has a rain/snow mention for the whole area given the spread in possible solutions. With several days to monitor the synoptic evolution and the responsible shortwave currently off the British Columbia coast, not expected to be fully sampled until approximately 12z Wednesday, it`s too early to speculate with much confidence on which solution will win out. However, there`s expected to be enough precipitation that where it falls as snow it may be an impactful winter storm...and where it falls as mainly rain that flooding concerns will be present, especially after today`s rainfall saturating the ground and causing renewed river rises. We`ll have increasingly more confident details through the week on this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 Posted about midnight last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 (edited) I/we are considering having a Guess the Snow contest with this system. Granted it may not be the widespread event we are all hoping for but time is running out and we haven't had a contest yet this, um, "winter". The contest would likely include major cities in both Midwest and North East. If you are unfamiliar with the contest, go to the Game thread to see last season's example. https://www.wxsphere.com/topic/108-march-11-13-2022-snowfall-guessing-game/#comment-5400 Stay tuned. Edited February 27, 2023 by Hiramite 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, Hiramite said: I/we are considering having a Guess the Snow contest with this system. Granted it may not be the widespread event we are all hoping for but time is running out and we haven't had a contest yet this, um, "winter". The contest would likely include major cities in both midwest and north east. If you are unfamiliar with the contest, go to the Game thread to see last season's examples. Stay tuned. Newark-2 inches........................of rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, FortySixAnd32 said: Newark-2 inches........................of rain. Contest didn't start yet. All early guess are to be thrown out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 6z icon went back nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 At least basketball season is getting to that good time of year! 🙂 I'm ready to kiss this deplorable winter & La Nina goodbye. Until AMO flips most La Nina ridges gonna be kicking. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted February 27, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 27, 2023 Because the Euro is the middle ground between the GFS & the Canadian, I'm leaning toward it at the moment. ..But I'm secretly #teamcanadian. 😄 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indygirl Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 IF this would pan out for the OV and Indy area starting time for snow to start might be when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 🤣 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 49 minutes ago, Hiramite said: Contest didn't start yet. All early guess are to be thrown out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: 🤣 Congrats northern MI again I guess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted February 27, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 27, 2023 22 minutes ago, Indygirl said: IF this would pan out for the OV and Indy area starting time for snow to start might be when? Late Thursday night. But I wouldn't start warning people or saying anything yet. Models are a hot mess. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indygirl Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: Late Thursday night. But I wouldn't start warning people or saying anything yet. Models are a hot mess. Na, I decided not to say anything, yet. However, Bamwx put out a new post today, soooo…. Too late lol! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: I'm not liking those odds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 (edited) That massive shift NW in the 6z eps seals it for me, im exhausted tracking other ppls storms so unless something miraculously shifts back SE, I will go back to observing this one Edited February 27, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 I am just window shopping at this point. I like the Quad Cities area for this one. Honestly, I am very cool with rain since my kids will get a four day weekend in April if this doesn't cancel school. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 Windshield wiper effect must be broken. OH folks in passenger seat.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 20 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: That massive shift NW in the 6z eps seals it for me, im exhausted tracking other ppls storms so unless something miraculously shifts back SE, I will go back to observing this one Thank you for your service. In all honesty we haven't had a good storm unless you count the ice storm(I hate ice) all winter. It's been NW from Madison to MSP cashing in mostly. My luck it's ends up a dud. We are at about 19-20" on the season via 1-3" increments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidMichiganWx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Honestly it's been an awful year for the majority of this board. Even up until last weeks storm it was mostly bare ground here all winter long. I don't even want anymore snow - bring on spring. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 The GFS has been slowly loosing the northern energy phase so the cold that provided is fading. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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