Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Cmc ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 (edited) Eps goes north as well, and at sub 985 I'm not convinced it's done Edited February 26, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 42 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: I feel like I let myself get excited 24 hours too early, if I could've just held out 1 more day 🤣 Better to be let down 5 days early as opposed to last minute screw jobs... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 10 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Eps goes north as well, and at sub 985 I'm not convinced it's not done Yep and that's why even though EURO op pastes me with near a foot, I am resigned to that not coming to fruition.i think EURO goes more west and GFS will come a little back east. A meet in the middle that leaves me out of the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 26, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 26, 2023 winter recon flights tonight. Quote 000 NOUS42 KNHC 251740 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1240 PM EST SAT 25 FEBRUARY 2023 SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z FEBRUARY 2023 WSPOD NUMBER.....22-087 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 A. 27/0000Z B. AFXXX 28WSE IOP34 C. 26/1800Z D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY: 35.0N 125.0W, 35.0N 150.0W, 50.0N 150.0W, AND 50.0N 125.0W E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 26/2030Z TO 27/0230Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY FLY AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE 28/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME. 3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY FLY ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE 01/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME. $$ WJM NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 I'm done. Yall have fun with it. 😬 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidMichiganWx Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Gonna be honest, as much as I like a good snowstorm, I’m ready for spring. Spent a week in SC and got a lot of golfing in. Ready for golf season up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 At least we were only teased for a day. Still wouldn't be surprised to see the windshield wiper effect in play. But I've been ready for spring since December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 (edited) I get the pattern cards aren't stacked in our favor, but I think we're giving up a bit prematurely. I know we in the OV get screwed by the NW shift way too often, but It was just yesterday that some models were showing this as a slider way to the SE off the coast. If we were in the day 5 bullseye, we'd all be taking model runs with a grain of salt...so now that the guidance has shifted north on day 5 we're just going to take it as gospel truth? I think it's wise to at least let tomorrow's storm get out of the picture before writing this one off as yet another warm cutter. Just my $.02 Edited February 26, 2023 by MesoscaleBanding 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 (edited) 25 minutes ago, MidMichiganWx said: Gonna be honest, as much as I like a good snowstorm, I’m ready for spring. Spent a week in SC and got a lot of golfing in. Ready for golf season up here. Lol. You live NE of me and spring golf weather most years doesn't arrive till mid to late April. Grass doesn't even turn green or need to be mowed till then. Edited February 26, 2023 by Cary67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 25 minutes ago, junior said: At least we were only teased for a day. Still wouldn't be surprised to see the windshield wiper effect in play. But I've been ready for spring since December. Yep yep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mafa Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 ICON with a stronger vort and held back a bit at 96. May result in a further NW track. I’ll let it play out though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 31 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: I get the pattern cards aren't stacked in our favor, but I think we're giving up a bit prematurely. I know we in the OV get screwed by the NW shift way too often, but It was just yesterday that some models were showing this as a slider way to the SE off the coast. If we were in the day 5 bullseye, we'd all be taking model runs with a grain of salt...so now that the guidance has shifted north on day 5 we're just going to take it as gospel truth? I think it's wise to at least let tomorrow's storm get out of the picture before writing this one off as yet another warm cutter. Just my $.02 Hope still there for OV. From LOT: Later in the week, a vigorous trough and deep closed mid-upper low is progged to emerge out onto the southern High Plains, then track east or northeastward across the central/eastern US. Not unexpectedly this far out, there is a large spectrum of possible tracks/intensities of this system. It is way too far out to pick a favored (more likely) solution, but worth noting there are several solutions that would provide for a meaningful snow in our region while others miss us to the south. If anything, the trend this season has been for guidance to trend weaker/farther south at this distance with these stronger system, but this definitely is one to keep an eye this week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Hope still there for OV. From LOT: Later in the week, a vigorous trough and deep closed mid-upper low is progged to emerge out onto the southern High Plains, then track east or northeastward across the central/eastern US. Not unexpectedly this far out, there is a large spectrum of possible tracks/intensities of this system. It is way too far out to pick a favored (more likely) solution, but worth noting there are several solutions that would provide for a meaningful snow in our region while others miss us to the south. If anything, the trend this season has been for guidance to trend weaker/farther south at this distance with these stronger system, but this definitely is one to keep an eye this week. Truly no lose position for me! I would love (of course) a late season snow storm that will not hang around long. If it misses, then continue the path towards grilling out and warmer weather 🙂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Hope still there for OV. From LOT: Later in the week, a vigorous trough and deep closed mid-upper low is progged to emerge out onto the southern High Plains, then track east or northeastward across the central/eastern US. Not unexpectedly this far out, there is a large spectrum of possible tracks/intensities of this system. It is way too far out to pick a favored (more likely) solution, but worth noting there are several solutions that would provide for a meaningful snow in our region while others miss us to the south. If anything, the trend this season has been for guidance to trend weaker/farther south at this distance with these stronger system, but this definitely is one to keep an eye this week. Yeah, weaker trend is such a double-edged sword as less cold air gets wrapped in & you're left with a marginal slop-fest. It's been so frustrating for us winter lovers in recent years. We all want a strong, wound-up SLP, but if you don't have a well-placed, strong HP to keep it from cutting, you're screwed. Edited February 26, 2023 by MesoscaleBanding 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Yeah, weaker trend is such a double-edged sword as less cold air gets wrapped in & you're left with a marginal slop-fest. It's been so frustrating for us winter lovers in recent years. We all want a strong, wound-up SLP, but if you don't have a well-placed, strong HP to keep it from cutting, you're screwed. You nailed it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 17 minutes ago, Pghsnow said: 🙄🙄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 NAM at 84 and RGEM at 84 look a lot different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 GFS over-amping in the long range exhibit A... At day 5-6, the GFS was showing tomorrow's GL's storm as a 973mb bomb...Latest runs have it somewhere in the mid-980s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWsnowhio Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 (edited) For what it’s worth, Rayno mentioned this storm toward the very end of a video he recorded earlier today. Said he “suspects” the GFS is too far north and is initially leaning toward a more southern track. Edited February 26, 2023 by NWsnowhio 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 If I'm seeing things correctly, looks like we'll have some partial sampling for the 0z Wed. runs & then full sampling by 12z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mafa Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 12 minutes ago, Pghsnow said: NAM at 84 and RGEM at 84 look a lot different. From each other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Precip shield appears farther south so far on 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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