bigben89 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 37 minutes ago, TLChip said: On the cusp of snowfall 🥹, guilty of loss of enthusiasm. Been a rough winter with the SER destroying everything once we get within 5 days. Makes it hard to put anything on the platter farther out this year. Another good fluff layer for the mountains of the NE, also some snow starved will see snow from this. NAM HRRR Looks like another round of February thunderstorms for the Pittsburgh area! Yay... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 27, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 27, 2023 35 minutes ago, bigben89 said: Looks like another round of February thunderstorms for the Pittsburgh area! Yay... It's the Pitts... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 SREF and NAM shifting north with the snow. QPF doesn't shift, so it must be ptype NAM in spoiler. Euro and GFS are steady as is ICON. Ukie is a bit north. Spoiler 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 12z nam recovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 WSW yes not a big storm but will take it and of course it comes over night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tool483 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 This is going to be interesting. Well, the ride to work tomorrow morning will be at least. Looking like 4-8 here. Good luck to everyone out there! Nice to see a little bit of winter, looks to be a pretty active pattern 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 (edited) SREFs very stable in these parts....locked into roughly 4" Edited February 27, 2023 by telejunkie 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 (edited) Warnings and advisories Albany explains the that the easterlies are driving lower amounts between the mountains of W New England to the Hudson then to the higher slopes west of the Hudson. Also mentions the high omega in the DGZ (which is fairly high up to be fair) will produce higher ratios and times of inch/hr snow. Spoiler NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories in effect for the forecast area from 7 pm this evening through 7 pm Tuesday... As of 620 am, water vapor imagery shows a powerful, compact shortwave trough moving east through the central Plains. Attendant 982 mb low is analyzed over northern MO. High pressure is expanding into the Northeast, allowing flurries over the forecast area to diminish. Lingering patchy stratus exists, but many areas should see mostly clear skies to start the day. The shortwave will deamplify somewhat as it tracks east- northeast into the Northeastern US today into tonight. Surface low will move into the eastern Great Lakes before weakening, while secondary development occurs offshore of the Delmarva tonight. High clouds will thicken this afternoon and evening ahead of the approaching system, with high temps today slightly below normal in the mid-20s to upper 30s. A period of strong lift will occur this evening due to isentropic lift and DCVA. This setup, also with a NW to SE area of 850-700 mb frontogenesis, fits the laterally translating band CSTAR conceptual model. Though the primary low will track to our west, its weakening and the coastal low strengthening will lock in the subfreezing air throughout the column, in contrast to many mixed precip events so far this winter. There will be a brief period at the onset this evening where strong omega intersects the dendritic growth zone, though the DGZ is rather high and the max omega becomes situated below it with time. So in general, expect snow ratios to be near to a bit above climo at the beginning of the event (12-16:1), decreasing with time. The above factors point to a period of moderate to heavy snow shortly after onset, where snow rates should be around 0.5 to 1 inch per hour on average between 9 pm this evening and 5 am Tuesday. Easterly winds may gust to 20-25 mph at times in favored high terrain areas and up the Mohawk Valley, which could further reduce visibilities. With 25-35 kt east-southeast flow in the 925-850 mb layer, expect the distribution of precipitation to be modulated by the terrain, with a minimum between the Hudson River and the higher terrain of western New England, and a maximum over the east-southeast slopes of the high terrain. Edited February 27, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 Forecast snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 GFS still pretty steady with some very minor differences with qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 Ukie trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 RGEM trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 RAP 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 hours ago, StretchCT said: 12z nam recovers Is this a built-in feature of the NAM, to have this waffles so close to the event? LOL It's not the first time I've seen it do this, especially with these types of setups. Maybe not one of its fortes. But who knows, still gotta look out the window tomorrow for the final outcome I guess hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miller A Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Sigh. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harley8778 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 (edited) Man, the rough winter for southern PA continues, but I'm happy to see some of the snow starved getting a shot. At this point I've given up and I'm ready for spring weather down here... Edited February 27, 2023 by Harley8778 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NHSparky Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4-8" here in southern NH. Tomorrow's ride into work should be slow but it is school vacation week so that will help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 27, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 27, 2023 I would not be surprised if WSW are pushed further south this evening or overnight (as the storm begins). There is a significant amount of energy with this system and High Res models continue to show rather strong h7 dynamics. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 (edited) As the midwest posters know, tornado warnings are up in Indiana from this system. And a pretty widespread wind advisory. Edited February 27, 2023 by StretchCT 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Got some work to do on temps in Central PA. Low to mid 40s with sun still peeking through. Dewpoints low 20s, so that should get us into the upper to maybe mid 30s, then gonna need some additional help from darkness and heavier precip. Or, this is just another meh in a long line of mehs. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 Euro held the line with the precip type, bumped some totals around from qpf output though. Actually might be a shift north with the precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 27, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 27, 2023 Given that the NAO is still flexing somewhat and the dynamics with this system (and my gut), I would go with this will be an over producer in the fringe areas. It is going to come in like a wall and accumulate rather rapidly. Likewise, You are going to have a cooled environment to work with after the initial thump. Of course, warm tongues must be incorporated into the thought process, but I think we see a good bit of accumulation for those on the Southern Fringes. Helps that it arrives after dark as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 (edited) 11 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Euro held the line with the precip type, bumped some totals around from qpf output though. Actually might be a shift north with the precip. Think that speaks to @Uscg Ast point he made earlier that this thing has got some juice under its hood.... Edited February 27, 2023 by telejunkie 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hobie Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Are we assuming 10:1 ratios with this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Seeing a rn/ip mping report out in state college. Cold aloft, warm below. Makes sense I supppose. Hoping we can cool rapidly on that inital band, set us up for some success when the main event arrives after dark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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