Admin MaineJay Posted February 26, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 26, 2023 WTF I heard it only rains in CT. Oh right some folks only whinepost... 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 26, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 26, 2023 26.12z EFI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: 18z NAM was definitely colder, that Poconos jackpot not looking so crazy. I’ll share real time observations is this pans out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Yesterday was winter, today is spring, its any guess what will show up for this. Hopefully I see some flakes.🤷♂️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 26, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: WTF I heard it only rains in CT. Oh right some folks only whinepost... It only rains in Long Isand. Duhhh 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 26, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 26, 2023 Just now, Uscg Ast said: It only rains in Long Isand. Duhhh True story 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 26, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 26, 2023 Regarding a thump, the NAO is flexing its muscles a bit and the h7 actually looks pretty primed over the NYC metro araa. It appears CNJ/NYC is becoming the battle ground, which bodes well for higher end snow for those areas (SENY, CT, NNJ, perhaps CNJ) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 26, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 26, 2023 6 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said: Regarding a thump, the NAO is flexing its muscles a bit and the h7 actually looks pretty primed over the NYC metro araa. It appears CNJ/NYV is becoming the battle ground, which bodes well for higher end snow for those areas (SENY, CT, NNJ, perhaps CNJ) It would really suck if the time of day screws people over. Probably would be beneficial were this coming in 12 hours earlier or later, but that's what we got. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 26, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 26, 2023 WPC Quote By late Monday, warm advection precipitation will begin to spread northeast from the upper Ohio Valley into western and central Pennsylvania and New York by the evening hours. Cold high pressure centered over eastern Canada and extending southeast into the northeastern U.S. will support a wintry mix for parts to western to central Pennsylvania and New York, with mostly snow farther north and east Monday evening. The system is forecast to begin to shear to the east as it interacts with the confluent flow over the northeastern U.S. As it does, energy will begin to transfer to a low developing near the northern Mid Atlantic coast Monday night. This will help to lock the cold air in place, while drawing moisture into a region of enhanced lift supported in part by low-to-mid level frontogenesis on the north to northwest side of the low. This may support mesoscale banding, raising the threat for some locally heavier totals especially for interior portions of southern New York and New England Tuesday morning. This secondary low is expected to quickly slide off to the east on Tuesday. However, precipitation will continue across parts of the Northeast as an upstream shortwave moves from the Great Lakes across the Northeast. This will support additional snows spreading northeast across eastern Upstate New York and New England through late Tuesday into Wednesday. Onshore flow and perhaps a weak wave developing over the Gulf of Maine may help to bolster additional totals across southern Maine Tuesday night. Widespread storm total accumulations of 4 inches are likely from the Poconos and northern New Jersey, through much of eastern Upstate New York, and into the interior portions of southern to central New England. Accumulations of 6 inches or more most likely across Catskills, southern portions of the Adirondacks, and the White Mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 Updated briefing - not too many changes but wwa's up for most of the burbs n/w of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 Latest forecast snow amts from Upton. I'm good with 4-7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 27, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: Latest forecast snow amts from Upton. I'm good with 4-7. I personally think that 3-6/4-6 can be painted for all of the Upton region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 Euro trend seems stable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 NAM pulled up a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 (edited) NAM cut in half Spoiler Edited February 27, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Past 6 days of GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, JDClapper said: Past 6 days of GFS. The H is interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: The H is interesting Yeah, seemed like it couldnt figure that out until the past 24, 48 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 27, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 27, 2023 Gfs trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 27, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 27, 2023 29 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Gfs trend HIRES FV3 looks like it's the coldest model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 27, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 27, 2023 Damn. Talk about a lack of enthusiasm this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hobie Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 hours ago, Uscg Ast said: Damn. Talk about a lack of enthusiasm this year. Agreed…and guilty as charged. But only six pages for the first actual storm for many of us? Six pages?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 27, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 27, 2023 WPC Quote The surface low will march east through the Lower Great Lakes and direct its strong layer of WAA in the 925-850-700mb layers into the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Monday evening. The Canadian high is in a slightly better position to provide sufficiently cold enough temperatures to support snow from northern PA and upstate NY into New England. The 00Z HREF did show a band of snowfall capable of producing >1"/hr snowfall rates (max probabilities between 60-80%) from the Finger Lakes and just south of the Tug Hill Plateau to the Catskills and Berkshires Monday evening. As a frontal wave forms off the NJ coast, a wave of low pressure will deepen along it and track east, positioning itself by early Tuesday morning south of Long Island. It is during this window (Monday night into early Tuesday) that Atlantic moisture funneling around the north side of the surface low can lead to a more prolonged period of banded snowfall from the Tri-State area to southern New England early Tuesday morning. Given the timing of when the periods of snow occur, this will likely lead to reduced visibility and slick travel conditions on roadways for the Tuesday AM commute. The PWSSI does show a large footprint of >90% probabilities for Minor impacts Monday night into Tuesday AM over the Lower Hudson Valley and across much of CT. Meanwhile, there are 60% probabilities for Moderate impacts in the Catskills, portions of the Poconos, and near the Hartford metro area. This is largely due to the Snow Rate algorithm, which suggests the potential for quick snowfall accumulations and poor visibility. Latest WPC PWPF does show 60-70% probabilities for >6" of snowfall in the mountain ranges (Poconos, Catskills, Adirondacks, Tug Hill, Berkshires, Green, White Mountains) for the event, suggesting some localized areas could see snow totals up to a foot. Probabilities are 60-80% for >4" from the Tri-State area to CT and RI, with localized areas >6" possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 27, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 hours ago, Uscg Ast said: Damn. Talk about a lack of enthusiasm this year. They will chime in if it rains instead of snows. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 (edited) On the cusp of snowfall 🥹, guilty of loss of enthusiasm. Been a rough winter with the SER destroying everything once we get within 5 days. Makes it hard to put anything on the platter farther out this year. Another good fluff layer for the mountains of the NE, also some snow starved will see snow from this. NAM HRRR Edited February 27, 2023 by TLChip 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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