February 27-28, 2023 | NE/Mid-Atl Winter Storm

[MaineJay]

RGEM trend

[MaineJay]

HRDPS almost gets snow to Philly. 🤣

 

[JDClapper]

1 minute ago, MaineJay said:

HRDPS almost gets snow to Philly. 🤣

 

That would be a plot twist! Haha

 

This just might be the last (and only lol) window for us PA folks for some winter fun, this week.. trends have been kind.

[MaineJay]

2 day GFS trend

[MaineJay]

2 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

That would be a plot twist! Haha

 

This just might be the last (and only lol) window for us PA folks for some winter fun, this week.. trends have been kind.

I think the system at the end of next week has some potential. Still a lot up in the.  I think it moves now west-east (sliding south of me), but it's starting location needs to be far enough south, that's my biggest concern for the mid Atlantic region.

 

[JDClapper]

5 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

2 day GFS trend

Went from 985 low to 990 and 1018 high to 1020. Nice combo. Could be good enough for us folks on the southwest borderline.

[MaineJay]

SREFs might have broke it's streak, looks to have ticked a hair warmer.

[Hobie]

Winter storm watch up for southern Litchfield county, 4pm Monday through 10 pm Tuesday, but just a Hazardous Weather Outlook for @StretchCT, who is less than ten miles away as the crow flies in northern Fairfield.  I’m sure they offices will come into sync, but the early differences are amusing.

Edited February 26, 2023 by Hobie

[JDClapper]

11 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

SREFs might have broke it's streak, looks to have ticked a hair warmer.

Yep, seeing a little more rain pops mixed in there, but SN and IP are still favored back on the southwest fringe here.  I am assuming the ZR will be rain in town, so after 1am Monday night, higher chance of changeover, but it would be drizzly/showery stuff.  A typical front end "thump" to changeover event, where the rain is usually after the goods have passed.

 

Edited February 26, 2023 by JDClapper

[MaineJay]

WPC

Quote

.Upper Midwest/Great Lakes to the Northeast...

Days 2-3...

A vigorous upper level trough, the same trough responsible for the recent major winter storm in California, will race east across the Four Corners region Sunday and enter the Great Plains Sunday night. By 06Z Monday, the mean 300-700mb trough takes on a negative tilt fostering an impressive surface low tracking into the Midwest. By 12Z Monday, NAEFS shows both MSLP and 850mb heights falling below the observed CFSR for the time of year. This storm system will be accompanied by a strong and southerly 60-70 knot 850mb jet while it encounters the backside of the a cold Canadian high pressure system over Quebec. With boundary layer temps more marginal and an inevitable warm nose >0C aloft, ice will be the main concern over eastern MN, much of northern WI, and into central MI. These areas continue to have deep snow pack, which will aid in keeping temperatures sub-freezing longer. WPC PWPF shows a large area with 80% probabilities of >0.1" of ice accumulation in central WI, with 20-30% probabilities for >0.25" in north-central WI. Farther north, the atmospheric column will stay sub-freezing over the MN Arrowhead, the Michigan U.P., and far northern MI to allow for snow to be the primary precipitation type. WPC PWPF depicts 50-60% probabilities for >6" of snowfall over the U.P. of Michigan and along the coast of the MN Arrowhead.

  Farther east, strong 290k isentropic glide over the Mid-Atlantic and corresponding strong 850-700mb frontogenesis will result in heavy snowfall over the interior portions of the Northeast. Sub-freezing temperatures will be in place to start with a cold Canadian high located over Quebec. Thermal profiles over north-central PA will be more marginal, causing precipitation to fall in the form of snow initially, then changeover to sleet and freezing rain. From the Poconos on north into Upstate NY, precipitation will stay snow longer with snowfall rates of 1"/hr possible Monday night. While the 850mb low will open up as it tracks into Quebec Tuesday morning, there will remain a steady feed of 850mb moisture ahead of the 500mb shortwave trough tracking north of the Great Lakes. This will keep snow in the forecast across northern New England on Tuesday, although snowfall rates will gradually lighten throughout the day due to the weakening WAA aloft. WPC PWPF does show a large area of probabilities of 50-60% in the Catskills, Adirondacks, Berkshires, and north into the Green and White Mountains for >6" of snowfall Monday night into Tuesday. The Adirondacks and Whites, in particular, feature 40-50% probabilities for >8" of snow.

  The latest experimental PWSSI shows 40-50% probabilities for Moderate impacts in portions of western MA and northern CT. This is primarily driven by snowfall rates as a developing wave of low pressure off the southern shores of Long Island delivers some modest Atlantic moisture into the region. The key to snowfall potential along southern New England and as far south as the Tri-State area will be where and when this low develops. Latest guidance has come in a little colder over northern NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and in southern New England. This is largely due to the surface low forming initially closer to Atlantic City than farther north near the mouth of the Hudson River. There will likely be a sharp cut-of in totals along the coast as more maritime influence cuts down on snow totals, but where snow can remain the primary precip type, WPC PWPF does show 50-60% probabilities from as far west as the Poconos to central CT and central MA. Snowfall rates of 0.50-1"/hr overnight and into the early morning hours Tuesday may result in treacherous travel conditions for the Tuesday morning commute in the areas.

 

[JDClapper]

5 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

WPC

 

Yep, that's the general idea.  But, still a "look out the window and see what happens" thing, regardless of what the short rangers say 1 hour before onset.  😄

[HVSNOWSTORM]

2 hours ago, JDClapper said:

Stretch and HV for ftw???!?!

Would be the first this year that's for sure. But def most models have us in or immediately within the jackpot for this one. Our only other snows over and inch or so were 2 in December of like 2 or 3" then 2 in January of again 1.5" and 3" of slush that barely stuck to pavement.

Edited February 26, 2023 by HVSNOWSTORM

[HVSNOWSTORM]

Winter Storm Watch for 5-10" from Albany NWS ❄️❄️

[StretchCT]

3 hours ago, JDClapper said:

Stretch and HV for ftw???!?!

It's like that girl I asked out in college who said yes, and each day before the date I expected her to call and cancel.  

Even the NBM is solid for me to have my heaviest snowfall of the season.

Edited February 26, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

It's so borderline for areas just south of CT.  I could see 3" on LI as a possibility or zero. Same with Essex and Union Counties.  Think Bergen and Passaic will get a few inches but some of those counties are north of Greenwich. 

Edited February 26, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Can't quite do the model comparisons yet for total snow as the storm is still producing at 48-60hrs.

Here's my favorite so far.  The WRF-NSSL with 9" and it's still snowing at a good rate. Also a good example of why that southern edge is so difficult to forecast.  This, the ARW, FV3,RAP and long range HRRR all have 4+ on LI, which is a big difference than the current tone from the NWS. Even GFS and Euro has 3=.

 

 

[telejunkie]

Burlington’s first call map:

[StretchCT]

3 hours ago, Hobie said:

I’m sure they offices will come into sync, but the early differences are amusing.

Upton put a WSW up for Orange County in their area. I find the Albany approach interesting.  I suppose downsloping with easterlies? But even in the Taconics?

[StretchCT]

29 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

It's like that girl I asked out in college who said yes, and each day before the date I expected her to call and cancel.  

Oh and I eventually married her!

[JDClapper]

2 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Can't quite do the model comparisons yet for total snow as the storm is still producing at 48-60hrs.

Here's my favorite so far.  The WRF-NSSL with 9" and it's still snowing at a good rate. Also a good example of why that southern edge is so difficult to forecast.  This, the ARW, FV3,RAP and long range HRRR all have 4+ on LI, which is a big difference than the current tone from the NWS. Even GFS and Euro has 3=.

 

 

Not gonna lie, 11" out of this one back here would be a 1000% surprise lol

Edited February 26, 2023 by JDClapper

[MaineJay]

SREFs looked like they ticked a fair about cooler.

 

[MaineJay]

10 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

SREFs looked like they ticked a fair about cooler.

 

Eh, more of a wash. Pretty similar to previous run.

[JDClapper]

CTP updated snow forecast.

[JDClapper]

4 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Eh, more of a wash. Pretty similar to previous run.

Look out the window, see whats happening. 🤷‍♂️

[MaineJay]

18z NAM was definitely colder, that Poconos jackpot not looking so crazy.